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Political analysts are closely monitoring President Trump's approval rating to assess the likelihood of his re-election, but his perceived popularity will also have a significant impact on the organization of the Democratic primaries.
I remember talking in 2008 to a Democratic voter before the Iowa caucus, who had explained to me that everyone knew that the Democrats were going to win the presidential election that year. They had the luxury of choosing the candidate they preferred. At the time, Democratic voters had reason to be confident. The party had assumed both houses of Congress in 2006, the war in Iraq remained unpopular and the popularity of George W. Bush had spent months bouncing between 20 and 30 years. Republican candidates were struggling to stand out from Bush. This allowed the Democrats to follow their hearts, which led them to choose Barack Obama.
I see a potential scenario similar to playing this cycle. If Trump's approval rate remains at its current level (for him) to be in mid-40 or improving in the coming months, Democratic voters will be really worried about his re-election. This will make them more inclined to play cautiously with someone who, in their opinion, would have the best chance of defeating Trump, and less inclined to embrace anyone with whom they would like or be more in agreement but they fear the risky bet.
If, however, Trump's approval rating in craters in the coming months, and if the growing perception is that he will be easily beaten, this will likely change the way Democratic voters see the race. Instead of playing cautiously, they are more likely to vote for the person they want, regardless of eligibility issues.
For the moment, it seems that Democratic voters consider Joe Biden as the safest choice against Trump. As long as this is the case, Trump's relatively high approval rating will likely enhance his chances of winning the Democratic Party nomination. However, if Trump 's approval rating is dipping, this could create an opening for other candidates as voters might be wary of the current situation due to eligibility issues.
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