How will the Iranian oil game of Trump affect the global economy? | Iran

The attempts of US President Donald Trump to bring Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and change its foreign policy are fraught with difficulties. After tearing up a nuclear deal with Tehran, Trump forces China, India and Turkey to stop imports of crude from the Islamic Republic.

Trump is betting that there is enough oil from the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to fill the void. But he is betting on the world economy that the events of the "six shaking" – countries with unstable political climate, such as Algeria, Angola, Libya, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela – do not lose control of the situation.

So what will be the impact on the global economy?

If Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz or if oil stops flowing from other hot spots, such as Libya and Venezuela, the consequences will be multiple: oil could reach $ 100 the barrel or more; about 0.6% could be wiped out of global growth this year; and inflation could increase by 0.7 percentage point.

Nations facing inflationary pressures, that is to say rising prices, will not be happy. And the backlash could affect the already tense US consumer, which will hurt growth. Gas prices have already risen 7% to $ 2.89 last month.

Economic sanctions are increasingly being used to promote all US foreign policy objectives. Although the United States cut ties after the 1979 revolution, it is estimated that they lost $ 175 billion in export earnings because they were not doing business with it. 39, Iran between 1995 and 2012. This equates to 66,436 jobs lost per year.

Sanctions have also hurt the nations that impose them.

"Can the United States Substitute Iranian Oil – No, Because Crude Quality Is Important Iranian Crude Oil is Heavy US Crude Oil is Light," said Sara Vakhshouri, Founder and President of SVB Energy International. "The best deal for Iranian oil is Saudi crude oil and the other closest is that of the United Arab Emirates."

Before Saudi Arabia increases its oil production, "they expect to see how much Iranian oil supply will be excluded from the market, how much Iran can smuggle or sell informally and if the US government would formally offer waivers Then they will wait … and then act accordingly to manage the market and replace the Iranian oil.

"If we want Saudi Arabia to cover Iranian oil with its reserve capacity, the market would not have enough spare capacity to cover it in the event of a major incident. considerable impact on the [oil] prices, "says Vakhshouri.

Huawei and the FBI in China

Adam Khan, CEO of Akhan Semiconductor, is a young inventor who has developed a technology that makes mobile phone displays stronger and more scratch-resistant. He sent his product to Chinese tech giant Huawei, but the diamond glass was broken with missing fragments.

Suspecting that Huawei, who had ordered the sample in 2017, contained an intellectual property theft, Khan informed the FBI, reported John Hendron of Gurnee, in Illinois, who spoke to with Adam Khan.

Khan explains, "Our mirage diamond glass technology is actually a lab-grown nanocrystalline diamond that has all the properties of the materials you would find in loose diamonds.Its exceptional hardness, its thermo-conductive, is a material exceptionally robust, chemically inert, biologically inert, and having the optics you need for a display glass.We have therefore combined a very thick layer of nano-diamond to a the world's premier display technology. for cell phones, smart phones and consumer technologies. "

According to Khan, "Huawei contacted us after attending some of these announcements, they were very interested in the technology of their flagship smartphone as well as their smartwatch.And we started their engagement with them in 2016. By 2017, we have started sending samples for evaluation, but the samples came back damaged and, in the end, we found that they had retained part of the sample, which caused the events that followed. "

The FBI was contacted when a good portion of the returned samples lacked parts. "This is not something that can be done in shipping – it's an exceptionally hard material and it was packed rather tightly … so we immediately knew that there was had a problem, "says Khan.

The analysis revealed "that the sample had been split intentionally with the help of a high-intensity laser". And it is at this time that the FBI has asked the company of Khan to spy for the US government.

"I'm looking at it more so that we're looking to protect our technology and the FBI recognizing the decisive progress of the technology platform – not necessarily Akhan in particular, but the importance of diamond technology – [and it] quickly took the initiative to help us protect and recover this technology, "Khan said.

Source: Al Jazeera