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This article contains spoilers for season 8, episode 6 of "Game of Thrones".
The hero, Jon Snow, had been revealed as the grandson of a killed king. Daenerys Targaryen had a loyal army and the only dragon in the kingdom. Sansa Stark proved her cunning and harshness, while her younger sister, Arya, saved the day at the Battle of Winterfell.
Many of these main "Game of Thrones" characters seemed to have a real chance to lead Westeros when the series ended on Sunday. But the bet on the winner, which took place in the offshore and European betting markets in the weeks leading up to the final, did not leave them much of a chance.
Instead, the punters were supporters of Bran Stark, aka the three-eyed crow, who had been an important but less important figure in the series.
Bran was not a mere favorite: the last bets allowing him to rule the kingdom were placed on a 2 to 9 odds on a major offshore paris site, which implied that the probability that he was there was The carry was almost 82%.
[[[[Read our summary of the final of the series.]
This is an expensive bet. For every $ 45 risky, the profit would be only $ 10. This was the kind of bet to be made by those who are fairly sure that they are right.
And the right bettors were: in the final, Bran was named king by a board made up of main characters, a result that shakes his head and disconcerted many fans.
Other heavy betting scenarios have also paid off. For example, at one in three odds, Jon had been a big favorite to kill Daenerys in the last episode – even though he had been his lover (and his nephew) and had repeatedly told him his loyalty, as the Have expressed some of his allies. doubts.
The punters were right on that one too.
[[[[Our TV critic said that the final did not reach the top of the series, while recalling the spectacular course she had known.]
For the professionals who bet their money, it seemed clear what had happened: despite the considerable effort deployed by HBO to keep the end secret, key plot information had to be disclosed and some punters had inside information.
"You never see a rating of 2 to 9 – it really tells you that something is going on," said Bill Krackomberger, a professional sports bettor based in Las Vegas.
Even if you encountered such difficulties, he said, the meager earnings would make us a bad bet: "How can you bet on something like that, anyway? You get money on the dollar. "
It is difficult to know for sure who could have disclosed the details. Employees of TV providers and streaming services in more than 150 other countries broadcasting the program had a legitimate need to see episodes before airtime and could have made an informed bet. But they would have seen the episodes only a day in advance, and bets on Bran to win had increased. well before that.
Some unnamed leak authors have used Reddit to provide details of the episodes of the series before their release, including Bran's rise and Jon's attack on Daenerys in the final. One of the Redditors who got key details said that their source was a family member who had worked on the series.
"Game of Thrones" has inspired a robust betting market on offshore betting sites and in Europe, where some bookmakers have stated that betting volume has overshadowed all TV shows in history, at the same time. exception of the very popular Eurovision Song Contest.
But there was no strictly legal way to bet on the series in the United States, partly because of concerns about leaks and inside information. Some bookmakers asked the regulators for permission to offer bets, but they were told no. And other British and Irish have suspended their bets in recent weeks, while confidential information had spread.
For Mr. Krackomberger, the frenzy of Paris abroad recalled a famous moment in the annals of paris on Las Vegas.
In 1980, Sonny Reizner, one of the biggest bookmakers in the city, offered ratings on "Who shot J.R.?" before the answer is revealed on the successful series of CBS "Dallas".
But Nevada's gambling regulators have forced Mr. Reizner to cancel the bets and pay off the money before the episode airs, worried that many people already know the answer. When the program aired, the culprit turned out to be J.R. Ewing's sister-in-law.
Unlike Bran, however, she had only played 7 points out of 2 in Reizner's betting lines.
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