Huawei's biggest problem is now uncertainty, according to analysts



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In this illustration, the Huawei logo and the Chinese flag are displayed on an Android mobile phone.

Omar Marques | LightRocket | Getty Images

Analysts believe that the temporary easing of restrictions imposed by the US government in Huawei will bring little relief to China's telecommunications giant.

On Monday, the US government announced that it would allow Huawei to buy products manufactured in the United States in order to maintain existing networks and provide software updates to its existing handsets, although the company does not still can not buy US parts and components to make new products without license approvals that will likely be refused.

This development has not changed the media, experts told CNBC.

"It's not going to change overnight in terms of Huawei's fortune," said Nicole Peng, vice president of mobility for independent research firm Canalys.

"The biggest problem for them at the moment is the uncertainty," Peng said, adding that Huawei's suppliers were concerned about business continuity given their growing dependence on the company. Regarding the Chinese technology giant over the past year.

The latest development was brought by the administration of US President Donald Trump, who last week added Huawei to a list requiring a license for US companies if they wanted to do business with Chinese society.

This caused Google Alphabet to suspend its business with Huawei as part of a transfer of hardware, software and other technical services. Bloomberg News also announced that companies like Intel, Qualcomm and Broadcom would not be providing Huawei until further notice.

The "snowball effect" created by Google has probably "forced" the Trump administration to retract, said Anshel Sag, an analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy. He added that the current situation "seems clearly political and linked to the trade war".

For its part, Huawei has been provocative. The company's founder, Ren Zhengfei, said Tuesday on CCTV state television that "the actions of the US government currently underestimate our capabilities," according to a transcript published by the point-of-sale.

Ren said that Huawei disagreed with the US government, not with US companies, and that he was able to manufacture the chips he bought in the United States – although that does not mean he would stop to buy American tokens.

"I do not necessarily see Huawei changing course," Sag said. "In the end, Huawei knows that the best for his business is to act as if this 90-day break was not a break at all."

Google, for its part, said in a statement that the temporary break allowed the US technology giant "to continue to provide software updates and security patches to existing models (Huawei) for the next 90 days."

Who has to win

As Huawei's fortune came up against an obstacle, the discussion turned to whoever could benefit the most from the situation.

"The biggest long-term winner will be the US IT companies, but in the short term, the tensions between two countries offer opportunities to Korea," Daniel Yoo, Head of Global Strategy and Research, told CNBC at Kiwoom Securities.

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In the smartphone segment, where Huawei was among the few companies to record annual growth in shipments as sales slowed, South Korea's Samsung Electronics would be a beneficiary, Yoo said. Canalys data shows that annual growth in Samsung's global smartphone shipments fell 10 percent in the first quarter of 2019, while Huawei jumped 50.2 percent. During the same period, the growth of the smartphone of the American giant Apple technology slipped 23.2%.

Canalys Peng agreed, claiming that Samsung had "the most overlap" in terms of product and segments with Huawei.

Sag proposed a different point of view, saying that Huawei's national competitors, Vivo and Oppo, could have the biggest advantage of the vulnerability of the telecommunications giant.

Huawei is the one that is growing the most in Europe, he added, a region in which the two Chinese brands are becoming "more aggressive" and where consumers are more dependent on Google's ecosystem.

– Fred Imbert of CNBC, as well as Reuters, contributed to this report.


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