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It's over the water now.
Confidence was growing that a low-pressure area that had just settled off the coast of Florida and into the Gulf this afternoon could become a tropical depression.
And that could happen tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday night said hurricanes, tropical storms and storm surges could be issued for part of the northern Gulf Coast as early as Wednesday.
The low-pressure system that could generate depression – and eventually become tropical storm Barry – was transferred Tuesday to Apalachee Bay, Florida. The hurricane center said it was producing many storms, but disorganized, in the Gulf and Panhandle of Florida.
A depression could form as early as Wednesday or Thursday, announced the hurricane center, and heading west across the northern Gulf.
Confidence in what happens next decreases at this stage.
The hurricane center said that a reconnaissance aircraft from the Air Force Reserve should now take a closer look at the system, called Invest 92L, Wednesday if necessary.
The forecast models still do not know where this potential storm could end or how strong it will be when it returns to shore.
Keeping this in mind, the hurricane center has urged residents of the Texas coast to the West Florida Peninsula to monitor the changing situation over the next few days.
Confidence in its trajectory will begin to increase now that it is above water and after formation of a center.
What is more certain is that heavy rains may affect parts of the Gulf Coast, which could be the most important impact of this system.
The Weather Prediction Center indicates that 3 to 5 centimeters of rain will be possible over the next seven days on the Gulf Coast, with some areas receiving much more.
Below is the seven-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Forecast Center. The area that potentially receives the most rain has been moved west from Tuesday and is now located above Louisiana, where 10 inches or more might be possible:
The regions of Louisiana and Texas could get as much rain as possible from a tropical depression later this week.
In addition, the hurricane center added for the first time that the system could produce wind and storm problems later this week or this weekend from Louisiana to the Texas coast.
There will also be another deadly risk – an increased risk of back currents on the beaches.
The National Weather Service in Mobile has announced that a high tear risk will begin Thursday on the beaches of Alabama and northwestern Florida and will extend at least Friday night.
Forecasters hope the rain will start climbing Wednesday and stay high throughout the weekend, depending on the trajectory of the tropical system.
A storm must have a closed traffic center and winds of at least 39 km / h to be considered a tropical storm and have a name. The next would be Barry.
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