Hurricane season 2019: up to 4 major storms could form, according to NOAA

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Two to four of these hurricanes are expected to reach Category 3 or higher, NOAA said of the season, which officially begins June 1st. These storms carry winds greater than 110 mph.

The forecast follows last year's above-average season, during which hurricanes Florence and Michael hit the US coast with a devastating effect. An average season has 12 named storms, with six hurricanes, including three major force hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

Although the stormy Atlantic period only begins next week, this year's season has already begun, with the subtropical Andrea storm training Monday near Bermuda.

The short-term storm has made this year the fifth consecutive year of named storms before the official start of the season, raising questions about the impact of climate change and whether the schedule should start any longer. early.

El Niño model could result in fewer storms

Competitive factors are at stake in the Atlantic this year, said Thursday the interim NOAA administrator, Neil Jacobs.

One of them is El Niño, the natural phenomenon characterized by warmer than normal water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. This also results in increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, which tends to reduce the risk of tropical storm development.

A persistent El Nino should suppress the intensity of the hurricane season, said Jacobs. However, warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, as well as increased activity from storms off Africa's west coast. West would encourage increased activity, he said.

El Niño has 55% to 60% chance to continue in the fall.

If El Niño falters faster than expected, conditions could become more favorable to tropical development during the second half of the hurricane season, from September to 30 November.

The opposite is also true: if El Niño strengthens more than expected, it could keep tropical storm activity at the bottom of the NOAA range.

The hurricane season culminates at the end of the summer.

Forecasters of other hurricanes agree

While NOAA publishes official forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season, research universities and private forecasters have also predicted a near-average season.

Researchers predict a slightly below average hurricane season in the Atlantic
• Colorado State University, which publishes one of the most esteemed forecasts, predicted a season slightly below average, with 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Experts will update their forecasts, announced in April, 4 June.

• The Weather Company plans a little more activity, with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

• AccuWeather forecasts 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes.

CNN meteorologist Monica Garrett contributed to this report.

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