In Republicans’ plans for a house takeover

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“We’re going to talk about everything that matters to people,” NRCC President Tom Emmer said, citing school reopens and job security. “We’re going to follow a game plan. Hopefully people will allow us to operate under the radar again because they won’t believe us. And we may all surprise you again in two years. “

And Emmer – now in his second stint as head of the House GOP campaign arm – dismissed the Democrats’ new strategy to tie the whole party to QAnon: “My colleague on the streets might think an extremist theory marginale is something people care about ”. he said in reference to Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (DN.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Congress campaign committee. But fewer people believe in QAnon, Emmer said, than think the moon landing was faked.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Congressional Republicans are only five seats away from retaking the House, following an unexpectedly successful election cycle, when they secured a dozen seats. The GOP also controls the redistribution process in several key states, giving them the ability to draw new favorable maps. And further fueling hopes for a Republican takeover, the president’s party has lost an average of 22 mid-term House seats over the past 40 years.

In an exclusive interview with POLITICO on Tuesday, Emmer mapped out his roadmap for the midterm 2022, which includes a list of 47 Democratic seats to target and a messaging plan: to label Democrats as job-destroying socialists and highlight the GOP commitment to reopen schools. and protection of the gas and energy sector.

But GOP leaders, while quietly convinced that history is on their side, know that there are still plenty of landmines to come – especially with the potential for Jan. 6 to leave a lingering black mark on the planet. party and the coronavirus still threatens to cloud the political ground. .

“Ultimately, I am optimistic that Republicans take the House and McCarthy becomes President,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry (RN.C.), who is close to the GOP leadership. “But there are a number of pitfalls along the way. And the playing field is much more complicated than it was in 2010. ”

Among those potential X factors: Some corporate donors have suspended their PAC dollars from Republicans, while Democrats promise to go after vulnerable lawmakers who voted to quash the election. Emmer himself voted to certify the results and was quick to condemn the violence, which could inoculate the campaign arm of some of these attacks and help fundraising. In contrast, the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm has come under fire after Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Chairman of the Republican National Senate Committee, voted to reject the Pennsylvania election results.

There is also a precedent for voters for political stability in the aftermath of a disaster. After the September 11 terrorist attacks, then President George W. Bush and the GOP defied historic expectations of taking House seats in mid-term in 2002.

“During the cycle, we might come across unexpected things, much like you do in a game where someone gets injured,” said Emmer, a former hockey player and coach from Minnesota. “You may need to make minor adjustments.”

The NRCC described three clusters of pickup opportunities in its initial 2022 memo, which was first shared with POLITICO. The first group is made up of 29 Democrats who hold districts that have featured tight last cycle races at the Congress and President levels.

This includes Democrats in the once-Republican suburbs where the GOP suffered during the Trump era, such as Representatives Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) And Andy Kim (DN.J.); more GOP-friendly working-class white regions lawmakers, such as Reps Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), Ron Kind (D-Wis.) and Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.); and members in heavily Latin districts along the Texas-Mexico border where Trump saw a startling wave, such as Representatives Filemón Vela, Henry Cuellar, and Vicente Gonzalez.

In the second tier of goals are eight Democrats who are less vulnerable but won by less than 10 points or underperformed Biden in their districts, including Reps. Colin Allred (D-Texas), Sharice Davids (D-Kan.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.), who currently occupy suburban seats that have held the more violently turned against Trump but retain some Republicans. DNA.

The final tier is made up of 10 members whose seats could change significantly in the next redistribution, including Reps Deborah Ross (DN.C.), John Garamendi (D-Calif.), Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla. ) And Maloney in The Hudson Valley in New York.

If House Republicans can knock out ruling Democrats – something that could happen through redistribution alone, based on which states the GOP controls the process – it would mark a party’s shortest stint in the majority since the early 1950s.

“I would much rather be us than them,” House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La) said of his fellow Democrats. “With history on our side, the opportunity has never been greater to win the House back.”

But, he added, “We’re not going to slow down or take anything for granted.”

Other elements of the NRCC’s strategy have started to take shape: Emmer will call on Rep. Carol Miller (RW.Va.) to serve as his recruiting chair and build on the party’s record efforts to elect more women in Congress – a key part of their 2020 success. Almost all of the most recent House GOP wins have come from women and minority candidates.

The GOP is particularly bullish on Texas, which is expected to gain three seats in the split change, though the numbers won’t be released until April. In 2020, Democrats have set their sights on rapidly diversifying suburbs, only to see their party lose ground in rural Latin America. Now Republicans are aiming for three once-deep blue seats in the Rio Grande Valley that Joe Biden nearly lost in 2020.

And as a sign of how much Republicans see the state as fertile ground, McCarthy – the GOP’s most prolific fundraiser in the house – has already crossed the state twice in the past two weeks. He also made several stops in Florida, with Scalise next week.

Donald Trump has spoken on the phone with Vladimir Putin at least a dozen times during his presidency. Now, Biden’s team is trying to determine if these conversations could come back to haunt them.

For now, party strategists are trudging along, fundraising and recruiting, and hope the mess that devastated the start of the cycle will fade away by the time voters finally go to the polls.

“Today’s headlines, whatever they are, are unlikely to be in that remote range relevant to what’s going to happen in almost two years,” said Rep Tom Cole, (R -Okla.), A former president of the NRCC.

But the party was engulfed in conflict since Jan. 6, with no sign of the fractures healing anytime soon. Capitol Hill was consumed on Tuesday by the start of Trump’s second impeachment trial, which showed captivating footage of when rioters passed the building, coupled with Trump’s own words urging his supporters to ‘fight like hell’ .

Democrats have taken hold of the turmoil, launching a $ 550,000 ad campaign linking vulnerable incumbents to QAnon, rioters and the controversial Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Eleven Republicans joined a unanimous Democratic caucus to strip Greene of his committee duties last week after McCarthy refused to do so himself.

“If we get into a circular firing squad like we did, it’s going to hurt us,” said Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate Republican who won re-election in a Nebraska seat that Biden won by 6. points. “If we can heal, it should be a good election cycle.”

Trump’s tone, Bacon said, was toxic to the GOP in some suburban areas. “Personality has conquered politics,” he said, describing the party’s loss of two seats in the Georgian Senate – and the upper house – last month.

Still, McCarthy came down to Florida two weeks ago to make amends with the former president. After the Mar-a-Lago meeting, the California Republican made it clear that Trump would be an integral part of the GOP’s efforts to reclaim the House. McCarthy’s campaign even sent a fundraising email from a website with the domain name: “Trump’s Majority.”

Democrats have entered on the renewed connection.

“McCarthy reminded the country that he was too weak to stand up to the dangerous QAnon conspirators taking control of his party and calling for mob violence on the streets,” said Cole Leiter, a DCCC spokesperson. . “It’s a contrast that American voters will not forget.”

Emmer has made it clear that he is not shying away from Trump’s populist policies, which he says have drawn new voters into the party. But he hijacked the question of whether or not Trump would be a presence on the election track. “It’s up to the former president to decide what he wants to do and where.”

And the NRCC will continue its long-standing policy of staying out of the primaries – a position that allows them to conveniently remain neutral as pro-Trump forces rally against the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach him last month. Still, Emmer praised two of those members, Reps. John Katko (RN.Y.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), For their ability to win districts that Trump easily lost.

Republicans are also ready to play some defense. The committee credits its Patriot program with the incumbents in danger of extinction for its performance in 2020, Emmer said, when all the incumbent Republicans who sought re-election won, including some veteran members who had to run tough races. for the first time in years. Emmer elevated John Billings, who was in charge of senior graduate protection, to executive director of the NRCC in 2022.

The party has made notable gains in fundraising in the last round, finally launching a digital platform, WinRed, to compete with Democrats’ online fundraising mammoth, ActBlue. But some Republicans have acknowledged that the events surrounding Jan.6 could complicate the GOP’s ability to raise funds, especially in the coming months when emotions are still high.

But party leaders also argued that it would be easier to fundraise this cycle than in 2020, when the House majority seemed out of reach and higher positions were given priority in circles. GOP money.

“I’ve spent the last two years traveling the country and hearing, ‘Well, Tom, you know, I think the game is in the Senate,’” Emmer recalls. But now, “they are more than willing to help us move forward,” he said.

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