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This year's Oscar race is perhaps the most open for years. Not only are the 91st Oscars on the brink of becoming one of the darkest ceremonies in recent Oscar history – there is no organizer and no hope of rooting – on February 25, they could even be the most controversial.
All of the guild awards that led to the Oscars – historically considered major predictors of the industry's trend – were not able to indicate that he was clearly at the top of the rankings. They also could not oppose two films, as in previous years.
Alfonso Cuaron's intimate and majestic Netflix film, Roma, has been named best film at the recent BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards. Cuaron also won the Directors Guild First Prize, placing him at least as the best to beat at the Oscars. The Writers Guild chose as winners the eighth of his debut Bo Burnham and Can You Ever Ever Me (the two films largely ignored by the Oscars) Marielle Heller.
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At the same time, the Screen Actors Guild awarded Marvel's Black Panther his highest honor – Best casting. But the most disturbing possibility is perhaps the crowning achievement of Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody as best film at the Oscars – they received the highest prize at the Golden Globes.
Controversies surround both films. At the recent Writers' Roundtable, hosted by the Hollywood Reporter, Green Book director Peter Farrelly refused to answer a political question, while the rest of his teammates, excluding John Krasinski, always controversial, did not hold back. When asked how they would write a film about US President Donald Trump, writers such as the great Eric Roth (A star is born), Paul Schrader (First Reformed) and even Bo Burnham (8th grade) do not have the same background. have not hidden their contempt. for Trump. Farrelly, however, declined to comment, citing the polarizing nature of her film. This is not controversial in itself, but it is emblematic of the way Green Book attacks its thorny themes of racism.
Bohemian Rhapsody, the biopic of Queen / Freddie Mercury with Rami Malek, was directed by Bryan Singer – a man who has been accused several times over the years of badually abusing minors. The latest wave of accusations occurred last month. While Singer was fired during the production of Bohemian Rhapsody – albeit for a totally different reason – he remains the only director credited with the film, thanks to Directors Guild's rules. He was not recognized by the team in his acceptance speech to the Golden Globes and his name was removed from the list of BAFTA candidates.
Such were the facts. And even if they are inconclusive, they may be your best bet for understanding what the academy is preparing. Here is a prediction of the winners in the six main categories, based on a combination of statistics and instinct.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
This image published by Annapurna Pictures shows Regina King in a scene in Si Beale Street could speak.
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On paper, the best supportive actor race looks like between Rachel Weisz (The Favorite) and Regina King (Si Beale Street could speak). Weisz won the Bafta, while King won the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. Meanwhile, Emily Blunt's underhand submission in this category at the SAG Awards (she was objectively leading in A Quiet Place) earned her a surprise win. But finally, as uncomfortable as it may be to report, King's nationality may be the key factor in his victory. This and the many years of goodwill she has earned through her television roles.
Best Supporting Actor
This image released by Universal Pictures shows Mahershala Ali in a scene from Green Book.
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The Best Supporting Actor category has always been the easiest to predict. Consider some of the recent winners: Heath Ledger (The Black Knight), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds), Christian Bale (The Fighter) and JK Simmons (Whiplash). Mahershala Ali's victory for Green Book sounds like a certainty. It will be his second Oscar in three years, after his victory in 2017 for Moonlight.
Best Actress
The biggest hurdle for Glenn Close is not Olivia Colman's performance in The Favorite, but her film (The Wife) has gone relatively under the radar . But although Colman had to fight to spend time on the screen with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz – both also nominated, besides, Close carried his film on his shoulders. A win for her will also serve as recognition for her singular career. At this point, Lady Gaga has practically lost all chances.
Best Actor
This image published by Twentieth Century Fox shows Rami Malek in a Bohemian Rhapsody scene.
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It's a two-horse race between Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) and Christian Bale (Vice). The two actors are united by the fact that their performances have been universally more acclaimed than the films in which they are. But while Bohemian Rhapsody was procrastinating over mixed reviews and producing hard to post for a staggering $ 850 million worldwide, Vice has not yet been able to recover its $ 60 million budget . And this could be the key to predict the best actor Oscar.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron of Mexico, director of the film Roma, heads to the stage to accept the Best International Film Award at the Independent Spirit Awards.
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Only two films in history have already won the Best Director Award without nomination to the Directors Guild Awards, which are considered the most accurate predictor of the Oscars. Since 1948, only seven winners of the DGA have not won the Oscar for Best Director. Roma is also the most personal film of the lot. This is a semi-autobiographical black-and-white drama starring an actor for the first time, which Cuaron has also written, shot and edited. This will be his second Oscar. He won his first prize in 2013 for Gravity – the first time a Mexican filmmaker won the Best Director award. Since then, his two compatriots – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Guillermo del Toro have won. In fact, a win at Cuaron means that five of the last six Academy Award Oscars have been won by Mexicans. Do not tell Trump anything.
Best Movie
This image published by Netflix shows Yalitza Aparicio, center, in a scene from the film Roma, by filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron.
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Which brings us back to square one, without a big favorite for the grand prix. Online, there is a clear concern about the message that a green paper or a Bohemian Rhapsody victory could send. And taking into account the uneven results of the Academy, especially when collectively confronted with the challenge of choosing a better film, Peter Farrelly, producer of Movie 43 (often ranked among the worst films ever made) and director of Dumber and Dumber (not to be forgotten) Dumber and Dumber To could become an Academy Award winner. With this horrible thought in mind, let's just agree that the Roma should win.
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First publication:
February 24, 2019 12:39 PM IST
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