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It was less than three weeks before Primary and, at first sight, the poll that Representative Joseph Crowley had shown by his team of advisers was encouraging: he led his up-and-coming rival, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, by 36 percentage points.
This was the last poll that Mr. Crowley's campaign would lead.
Despite his many renowned strengths – his financial strength as one of the best fundraisers in Congress, his stranglehold on Queens politics as party leader, his deep roots in an area that he had represented during Decades – Mr. Crowley was unable to prevent his stunning and complete defeat on Tuesday night.
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez defeated Mr. Crowley by 15 percentage points, winning a victory that should make her the youngest woman ever to be elected at the age of 28.
If it's a perfect storm to dislodge a congressional leader, then Mrs. Ocasio-Cortez and her crusading campaign on clbad, race, gender, age, absenteeism and absenteeism. 39, ideology proved right. She and her supporters swept Mr. Crowley into a redesigned and diverse 14th congressional district where the incumbent, despite two decades in Congress, had never raced in a competitive primary.
She overturned the levers of power that he was supposed to have – his status as local party leader and his money – against him, using that as ammunition in an insurgency that cut off a possible successor to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat No. 4 in the house.
No factor has led to the defeat of Mr Crowley, more than half a dozen officials inside and near his campaign said in interviews, most of them to the condition of anonymity. It was demographics and generational change, insider insider against the traditional tactics against the modern digital organization. It was the cumulative weight of all.
The multiple, overlapping layers of the Democratic Party's biggest left-wing victory – Ms. Ocasio-Cortez is socialist – have complicated the calculation of party leaders who have struggled to answer what, or who comes after. Ms. Pelosi downplayed her importance on Capitol Hill on Wednesday; others have reported the alarm for the change.
"It's a wake-up call for everyone," said Michael Blake, a vice president of the Democratic National Committee and a New York MP who represents a neighboring neighborhood in the Bronx.
[Lirelasuitesur[Readmoreon[Lirelasuitesur[ReadmoreonBackground of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, improbable candidacy and sudden celebrity]
Blake said Crowley, 56, met a young charismatic challenger whose politics and profile – a woman with Puerto Rican roots – corresponded to a diverse Queens and Bronx district, where 49% of residents are Hispanic and less than one in five white.
"Many people of color were excited by a young woman of color," Blake said. "People say that demographics are fate and you can not ignore this reality by looking at the numbers there."
But Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, in an interview on Wednesday, rejected the race as a determining factor in her victory, even though she had regularly stressed her legacy on the run of the campaign.
"It would be a huge mistake to say that this election has happened because X's demography lives here." "It's completely missing everything we've just accomplished," said Ms. Ocasio. Cortez.
A former organizer of Bernie Sanders, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez won throughout the district, carrying the Queens riding of Mr. Crowley with a margin greater than that of the Bronx. "She's won pretty much everywhere," said Steven Romalewski, a researcher at the City of New York Graduate Center's Center for Urban Research, who mapped the results.
She got support for her progressive platform that included the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Agency, Medicare for all and a guarantee of "good life". federal job. Sanders won more than 41 percent of the vote in the district at the 2016 presidential primary.
"His strongest support came from areas that were not primarily Hispanic," said Romalewski, citing Astoria, where white residents make up nearly half of the population.
To prepare for the race, Mr. Crowley's campaign commissioned his first survey in early 2018; the results showed it far ahead. But the poll also had disturbing numbers: he was remarkably unfamiliar at home, despite his many years in office, and his favorability rating was also low, according to people familiar with the results.
Mr. Crowley's family lives in the Washington area – a fact that Ms. Ocasio-Cortez used as a stick. And the district itself was redesigned following the 2010 census. This year has been Mr. Crowley's first primary since then.
In early June, the Crowley campaign was already in a state of alert. He had spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in direct mail and campaigning, but Mr Crowley remained stuck in the 50s in head-to-head clash – a dangerous area for n & # 39; any holder.
His bank account showed $ 1 million for the final sprint of the race. But the records of the Federal Election Commission reveal that nearly two-thirds of these funds were earmarked for the general election. He could not spend it for the primary.
At a pre-election interview, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said that the blitz of Mr. Crowley's activity and mail – an official involved in his campaign said that some voters had received more than $ 50,000. a dozen documents – had bounced back to his advantage.
"It's funny," she says. "A lot of people find our campaign because it's coming out for the first time and they're like-" Who is it? "And running against it?
At the end of May, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez published a two-minute biographical video that went viral, the latest example of this "Bronx girl," as she called herself, catching fire on social media.
His video and a three-minute clip that Mr. Crowley published a few days before the election told the story of the race.
She was riding subway trains in hers. He drove a car in his.
Mr. Crowley spoke of the diversity of his district and introduced himself as an ally. "The only thing about my life experience," he said at the opening, "is the ability to put myself in the shoes of others." She started as a member of the community herself.
His video had less than 90,000 views on Twitter by Primary Day. Hers was over 500,000.
There was some frustration with Mr. Crowley and Queens' machine approach against Ms. Ocasio-Cortez's more agile social media presence.
"We had people running this as a 1998 city council race and not a 2018 congressional primary," said a person involved in Mr. Crowley's campaign, under cover of anonymity to talk about his gaps.
On Tuesday, some members of Mr. Crowley's team could feel the movement even before the polls closed. They saw greater participation in some more gentrified pockets of the neighborhood – Sanders bastions. His presence on social networks overwhelmed them.
Daniel Dromm, a Democratic city councilor who represents a part of the congressional district, said that he had warned the Democratic leaders of Queens County, including Mr. Crowley himself, that the district was moving under them, ideologically and racially.
"They did not want to hear that," Dromm said.
However, there was little expectation that Mr. Crowley would be shot, as his family and staff dropped off at his headquarters Tuesday night. Two Crowley camp officials said the turnout was only slightly above expectations. Either she got different voters or they voted in the other way. It was too early to say. The result was the same.
People were crying. Mr. Crowley consoled them. "I'm sorry," he apologized.
Vivian Wang and John Surico contributed to the report.
Follow Shane Goldmacher on Twitter: @ShaneGoldmacher
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