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Some of the key advisers and members of President Donald Trump's cabinet believe that today there is a rare opportunity to provoke the collapse of the Iranian regime, according to Israeli and American sources who have maintained with Haaretz in recent weeks.
However, there is a division on what should be the strategic objective of the administration with regard to Tehran, other advisers considering that the United States should aim for a new agreement global with Iran.
The White House recently increased its economic pressure on Iran with a series of crushing sanctions, accompanied by diplomatic efforts to decrease oil exports from Iran to Asian and European countries. The official line of administration is that this pressure has only one goal: to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, where a new agreement should be built.
The desired agreement, according to senior administration officials, should focus not only on Iran's nuclear program but also on its aggressive behavior across the Middle East.
YURI GRIPAS / REUTERS
Yet everyone around Trump does not believe not that it's the right goal, according to Israeli and American sources. These sources have specifically designated Trump's national security advisor, John Bolton, as someone behind the scenes to advance the option of the collapse of the Iranian regime.
Bolton had publicly advocated such a line for many years and had even done so in January, shortly before he was replacing H.R. McMaster at the White House.
According to Haaretz sources, Bolton considers the protests that erupted in Iran in recent months about the state of the country's economy as an indication of the regime's weakness. He told Trump that the increase in US pressure could lead to the collapse of the regime.
A person who recently spoke with senior White House officials on the subject summarized Bolton in the words: "A little kick and they are done."
However, Defense Secretary James Mattis is pushing a different line and is skeptical of the wisdom of pushing for regime change, the sources say. He is concerned that such an action could lead to a total war with Iran, cause damage to the global economy and jeopardize US allies in the Middle East.
Mattis, said the sources, argues increasing pressure on Iran, but with the clear goal of bringing the Iranians back to the table for a better deal – one that would roll back their regional aggression.
A retired general in the Marines, Mattis was considered a hawk on Iran during his last role in the army, as head of the US Central Command from 2010 to 2013. At the Time, the Obama administration saw him as a warmongering against Iran. Said a former senior US official who spoke with Haaretz about this. "Now, as Trump's defense secretary, he is accused by relatives of the president of not being tough enough against l & # 39; Iran. It's absurd, "said the US official.
Between Mattis and Bolton is Trump's Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who entered the State Department in May and focused mainly on the North Korean issue.
Pompeo is also considered hawkish about Iran. As a member of Congress, he was one of the fiercest critics of the 2015 nuclear deal signed by the Obama administration. However, sources who spoke with Haaretz said that since he became secretary of state, Pompeo has come close to Mattis' position that the United States should seek a new agreement improved with Iran. However, he publicly voiced his support for protesters in Iran last week, saying, "The people of Iran are tired of the corruption, injustice and incompetence of their leaders."
In May, Pompeo gave a detailed speech on Iran, presenting 12 conditions for a new agreement with the Islamic Republic. He stressed that the United States would ask Iran to withdraw its forces from Syria; stop his involvement in Yemen; and end all support for terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
Pompeo hinted that if Iran accepted the 12 terms it presented, it could derive major benefits in a future agreement, perhaps even greater than those offered in Tehran in the future. 39, previous nuclear agreement.
A spokesman for the National Security Council told Haaretz this weekend that "almost everywhere we see a problem behind Iran" – whether through the development of missiles provided to terrorists, the support to the Assad regime in Syria, or the Iranian cyberattacks against the United States and its allies.
"All nations must hold Iran responsible and increase the costs of illegal behavior," the spokesman added.
According to the NSC spokesman, the administration "is working with allies to create a new coalition to counter the full range of Iranian threats. This coalition will bring all the necessary pressure on Iran to change its behavior. In return, the United States stands ready to put an end to sanctions, normalize relations and reintegrate Iran into the global economy. These are large-scale actions that will benefit the people of Iran. This relief will come only when the United States will see tangible, demonstrated and sustained changes in Tehran's policies, "added the spokesman.
Another reason for the uncertainty surrounding Trump's Iranian policy is the influence of "external" advisers with whom the president regularly discusses policy issues, even if they do not formally part of the administration.
This weekend, Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, was speaking in Paris at the annual conference of the National Council of Resistance of Iran – the political wing of the Mujahideen. e-Khalq (MEK) – and said that the Iranian regime is about to collapse.
The MEK was designated as a terrorist organization by the United States from 2003 to 2012, and paid both Bolton and Giuliani to plead on his behalf in the past and speak at his events.
Saturday was the second time in recent months that Giuliani had spoken at a MEK event. In March, he told an audience in Albania that Trump had pledged to change regime in Tehran. Officials later denied that Giuliani was speaking on behalf of the US government and said the regime change was not the Trump administration's policy.
But some in Washington remain unconvinced.
"Those who listen to Mattis and Pompeo on the Iranian issue, but ignore the influence of people like Giuliani and Sheldon Adelson, do not really understand how the Trump administration works," said a European diplomat in Haaretz this week -end.
While the Trump administration is holding this internal debate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also weighed in on the issue. In recent weeks, Netanyahu has released a number of videos addressing the Iranian people, praising protesters in the streets of Iran and highlighting the economic benefits that the world has to offer. Iran could withdraw from cooperation with Israel.
The videos might suggest an Israeli attempt to further promote the idea that the Iranian regime is about to collapse because of the economic situation.
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