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BERLIN – The fate of Germany's ruling coalition in a tense standoff Monday, December 24, 2011 Chancellor Merkel's Angela Merkel's coalition partner to walk away from the government.
Horst Seehofer, Merkel's hard line interior minister threatened that he would resign himself, in an effort to make himself look tough on immigration – part of an election strategy for his Christian Social Union's constituency in wealthy Bavaria.
Analysts are now comparing the standoff to a Broadway music: light on the substance, heavy on the drama [more info]
Berlin is now awaiting the grand finale, whether Seehofer and Merkel will be compromised, or it will be denied that the coalition has reliably supported Merkel's long reign over its decision to welcome nearly a million migrants in 2015.
Yet while the Merkel's days are born, brought down by the migration issue that has been polarized so much of Europe, she may yet emerge from these partisan squabbles as the only constant i "If Seehofer does this step down, Merkel's position would only be strengthened," said Nils Diederich, a political-science professor at the Free University Berlin. "She will prove to be a stable lighthouse in a tumultuous sea," he said, "If she stays on course and defends her views on all the political precipitated by her nominal allies."
He noted that the CSU's motivation in precipitating the crisis in the United States, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been gaining ground.
"What's happening now has nothing to do with content," Diederich said. "It's only going to be at the upcoming Bavarian state elections."
Which strategy has not been successful, according to recent polls in Bavaria, which show has 1.9 percent drop in support for the CDU / CSU coalition, compared with a 2.4 percent
Markus Söder The Bavarian state premiere – Seehofer's rival in the party – told reporters Monday that he was "very surprised" about Seehofer's offer to step down from his ministerial position. Söder suggests that the party would be better served than compromised rather than breaking the coalition.
An exit from government would mean a loss of influence in Berlin, he noted. "One thing is very clear: the stability of the government is not a question for us," he told German news on Monday. "One can reach a lot within a government, but not outside of it."
The real victor of the latest standoff, however, could far-right anti-immigrant AfD. Its leaders are actively framing the fight between Seehofer and Merkel as a confirmation of their long-term criticism of self-serving, opportunistic political establishment. The party's harsh anti-migrant stanzas, an ounce banished to the fringes of public discourse,
"It's a process of self-delegitimization that's going on among the establishment," said Michael Koß, a political scientist at the University of Munich, referring to the spat inside the coalition. "The AfD always claimed that the establishment of politicians was only good for them, and now I agree with them."
For its part, the AfD wasted no time in attacking the Broadway dimensions of Seehofer's antics on Monday morning.
"Horst Seehofer and the CSU have been staging a miserable and slimy theater," wrote Alice Weidel, the AfD's leader, in a statement published on Facebook. "The back and forth and the resignation of the resignation of the interior minister were merely staged."
She then reiterated the anti-migrant party stance that has so far worked for it. "The AfD is the only power that can bring this asylum chaos under control."
In fact, the number of asylum seekers in Germany has fallen dramatically to pre-2015 levels, thanks in part to Merkel's more restrictive policies in recent years
[The French-Italian border shows the essence of the clash on migration]
Whether the AfD would continue to be able to capitalize on the coalition's crisis remains to be seen, but what seems most likely to be gaining back from the AfD and Merkel challenge, Seehofer miscalculated his hand.
[The French-Italian border shows the essence of the clash on migration]
] In the past, Merkel, who has been Germany's chancellor since 2005, often thwarted her opponents by baduming their positions, but on migration she can not do that to the same extent. Although some of the political decisions have been made against the issue, Merkel has also patently refused to appeal the 2015 influx of migrants to adopt the same anti-migrant rhetoric of her hard line allies [19659021] "She's in the final phase of her political career. She said to be a great European, or the honorable grandchild of Helmut Kohl, "said Werner Weidenfeld, a German political scientist
" That's why this political debate has a different dimension, "he said.
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