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China and the United States are heading for an epic trade war. Does this mark the beginning of an era of total confrontation between the two powers, or will the fight be confined to the economy? There are different points of view about this
For the United States, this trade war must be viewed in the broader context of a change in America's perception of China. Many experts, scholars and even ordinary people recognize that targeting the Trump administration on Chinese commerce is not done on a whim; it is supported by both political parties, Congress and the American public, including the business sector.
In other words, the whole American society seems to have reached a consensus on a new approach to China. For the first time in 40 years, the United States now sees China as a rival nation to contain and beat. This view is reflected in the US security strategy unveiled last year, in which China was designated as a major competitor seeking to challenge US power and undermine its interests.
To use the language of hawks in American political circles, now the enemy. It is therefore not surprising that President Donald Trump has taken such an intransigent stance on trade with China. Although divergent views within the administration may appear on the spot, the general trend is clear: Chinese hawks are on the rise.
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On the other hand, in China, the points of view on the commercial war are much more diverse. Although more people support the fight against America than to oppose it, their motives are very different.
In the government, officials from the trade and foreign affairs ministries have repeatedly pledged to respond to US trade sanctions. At the end, "senior officials have not been so clear about their opinions in public.This includes Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, the man of China at the trade talks, who has not makes no public comments outside of official statements.
Such reluctance is typical of Chinese leadership style.In public, senior leaders rarely express their opinions on contentious or sensitive issues. </ p> <p> They make a public statement This means that the government is ready to act.Western leaders are much more direct.This is particularly true of the Trump presidency: there has been a steady stream of press releases from Trump and his team, and in fact, we often find out the latest US trade policy from Trump's tweets
.are not concerned about impending trade war.The question is, how do they see it? sanctions and other threats as an American tactic to impose trade concessions on China, or only the first step of a concerted effort to curb Chinese development? The answer will rest on the judgment of Chinese leaders on the nature of Sino-US relations.
What can we infer from the actions of the Chinese government up to now? After Trump imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods worth US $ 50 billion on June 15, Beijing responded immediately by announcing its own tariffs of "the same magnitude and intensity". Since then, whenever the United States has intensified the fight, China has continued to talk hard to show that it was willing to repay as much damage as the United States could inflict on them.
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Although some scholars affiliated with the government believe that the only option for China is to fight back, I believe that the China's position reflects a change, too, in the way it views its relations with the United States. The discussion could come from nationalist pride – a way of pushing American pressure in words while holding back from its actions to leave some room for further discussion and compromise. After all, trade between the two countries is not symmetrical and there is a limit to the suffering that Beijing can inflict by imposing tariffs on US imports
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Or, maybe Beijing thinks that by threatening retaliation, it could force the Trump administration to back down, or that China has the capacity to bear the substantial damages to the Chinese economy in a full-fledged business. war? If none is true, then China's answer can only be explained by a change in attitude towards the bilateral relationship.
On June 21 in Beijing, President Xi Jinping met with a group of leaders of American and European multinationals. According to The Wall Street Journal he told them that China would retaliate against US tariffs. "In the West, you have the idea that if someone hits you on the left cheek, you turn the other cheek," said Xi. "In our culture, we push back."
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Also in the report, a Chinese official promised that Beijing would be inflexible in its approach to Washington. "China will not give in to external pressure to eat bitter fruits," said the official. "This is the negotiating principle set by President Xi."
In the past, the Prime Minister organized such meetings, but this year Xi attended the meeting, a sign of China's determination to get its message across.
In fact, a research firm reportedly stated in a recent note to clients that Mr. Xi chaired a high-level government meeting and called on all officials to prepare for a trade war in large scale. Xi's words at both meetings indicate that China and its leaders have already come to a conclusion about the US trade war: they see it as the first step in an American plan to curb the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation . Given the importance of the revitalization goal, China will not tolerate any attempt to derail it.
From this point of view, China undoubtedly considers America as the greatest external threat to a Chinese renaissance and feels that it is pushed to act. He realizes that no compromise is possible because a small compromise would not meet US requirements, while a big compromise would not be acceptable to the Chinese public. Even though it was possible to step back, Beijing would surely be wary that this would only encourage the United States to badert its advantage.
Thus, for China, the commercial war is the one that will decide the fate of the country.
When both sides clearly see each other as the biggest threat, a trade war seems certain to break out. Expect turbulence when the world order will be shaken.
Deng Yuwen is a researcher at the think tank of the Charhar Institute. This article is translated from Chinese
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