How the murder of Jamal Khashoggi affects Turkish-Saudi relations

When on October 24, Muhammad bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, declared that no one could tell the difference between his kingdom and Turkey, rumors ran that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to protect from allegations of involvement. in the badbadination of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist. What follows suggests the opposite. A few days after the prince spoke, several media reported that Turkish officials had broadcast audio recordings of the journalist's last moments in front of CIA director Gina Haspel. Shortly thereafter, Turkey requested the extradition of 18 men suspected of having tortured and murdered Mr. Khashoggi in front of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October. In a statement issued on 31 October, the Turkish prosecutor in charge of the case stated that Mr. Khashoggi had been strangled as soon as he entered the consulate and that his body had been dismembered and destroyed. The Saudis would prefer to move on. Erdogan seems to want the opposite. Where does it end and what are the issues?

The Saudis could not have borne the consequences of the murder better. Their officials claimed they knew nothing about Mr. Khashoggi 's whereabouts and killed him during a fight inside the consulate. They acknowledged that his badbadination might have been premeditated, even though it was part of a fraudulent operation involving senior intelligence officials. were not aware. Turkey could not have handled things better. The world's biggest jailer of journalists can boast of having revealed the murder of a journalist, forced confessions out of the Saudis and avoided a direct confrontation with the kingdom's rulers. In addition to everything, Turkey still seems to have an badet in the sleeve, in the form of recordings and documents that, according to some, might even involve Prince Muhammad in the badbadination.

Referring to the leaks of Turkish officials and Erdogan's reluctance to confirm details, badysts have suggested that the Turkish leader wanted to obtain concessions from Saudi Arabia in exchange for allowing the Crown Prince to save face. These could include an injection of money into Turkey's Turkish economy, as well as a private apology. (After all, Turkey is outraged by the alleged use of a diplomatic mission as a torture chamber.) Instead, Mr. Erdogan could handle the fallout of the badbadination on the Prince Muhammad, or even block him access to the throne. His government has disagreed with Saudi Arabia for nearly a decade. The Crown Prince made things even more difficult. Under his leadership, Saudi Arabia threatened to attack Iran, imposed an embargo on Qatar, deterred Kurdish insurgents in Syria, and continued to support the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, actions against which Turkey is fiercely opposed. Anxious to provoke the Saudis and their Gulf allies, who have invested billions of dollars in Turkey, Erdogan's government has so far tried to minimize these differences. Prince Mohammed does not have any. Earlier this year, he reportedly referred to Turkey as part of a regional "evil triangle". "Erdogan does not want him as king," says Behlul Ozkan, a scholar at Marmara University in Istanbul.

A broader ideological conflict is also at stake. Mr. Erdogan and the Saudis represent two rival visions of political Islam. Despite his authoritarian instinct and the sad state of democracy in Turkey, Erdogan owes his legitimacy to the elections and the support of public opinion. Prince Mohammed owes his to the Saudi lineage and to the support of the palace. "The Turkish example frightens the MBS," Ozkan said, especially following the Arab Spring, when Islamist movements helped bring down authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, and consolidated their gains through elections. "The Saudis and Emiratis fear that their people will want elections too someday." But Erdogan does not want to exaggerate his hand. It is possible that the disclosure of evidence (if any) linking Prince Muhammad to the murder of Mr. Khashoggi could force the aging King Salman and the Americans to withdraw their support for the prince. But there is a much higher risk than it will not be. (Trump has already suggested not allowing a journalist's death to interfere with his government's relations with Saudi Arabia.) Erdogan will not seek to dislodge the prince on his own, without the support of the government. United States. The last thing the Turkish president needs is a young unpredictable Saudi king who wants to take revenge on him.