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The British business world has tried to play a constructive role in Brexit. As a result of Parliament's decision to trigger Article 50 after the 2016 referendum, we committed ourselves with the government to ensure that the enormous complexity and economic risks are well understood and subject to adequate planning.
After 45 years spent in the EU and the integration of our economies that resulted. to support the largest single market in the world, we have badumed that common sense would prevail. This would have clearly required a judicious transition period while the United Kingdom remained as close as possible to the block – preferably in fact, remaining in the customs union and the single market for a period of five to ten years. This would have left enough time to deal with the enormous complexities of the trade treaties with respect to supply chains, skills, research, transportation and the national health service.
If such a compromise was suboptimal, businesses would be less willing to support such a proposal. But this is clearly not where we are. The UK risks an extremely bad or no agreement, which, according to most commentators, would be close to a catastrophic disaster in economic and political terms, as well as a significant risk to peace and security. Prosperity in Northern Ireland.
It is also undeniable that the prospectus proposed by the Brexit campaign in 2016 is simply not offered. We have already paid a heavy economic toll in terms of lost investment and influence; from one of the G7 economies to the fastest growing one of the slower ones. Premier Theresa May is clearly doing her best to avoid a no-deal scenario. But the compromise solutions that seem to emerge would still cause significant damage to the economy over time.
In fact, the May government will not reach a final agreement at this point. The best result will be a divorce settlement that will keep the UK in the single market and in the customs union for a period of 21 months after we leave. No company can invest in the long term over a 21-month horizon.
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From March 30, companies will face significant uncertainties, including possible extensions of the transitional period and the question of whether to avoid border controls in Ireland will apply. and, if so, for how long. The rules under which we operate could change more than once – and we will have no more significant contribution to them. The only thing that is clear is that it will be worse than our current agreement in the EU.
The various parliamentary factions will continue to not agree on who should be responsible and where the country should go – and in the meantime, trade negotiations will last for years. It will be a recipe for additional investment loss and economic stagnation or worse. Some think that the prospect of leaving without agreement is so catastrophic that they should support any deal that avoids this scenario. It seems unlikely, however, that a majority of the Parliament will vote in favor of "no agreement".
MEPs may well be stuck on the next "significant vote" on an agreement on Brexit. The British must have the choice between staying in the European Union and leaving on the terms that Ms. May negotiated. This will avoid any risk of leaving the EU without agreement.
As a first step, the government should ask Brussels to extend the release date of Article 50 so that we can hold another referendum. All indications are that the EU would agree. We tend to forget that 64% of the total electorate and the overwhelming majority of young people who voted did not vote for the exit. A "people's vote" is the only answer possible, as former Minister Jo Johnson said in his eloquent statement of resignation.
Companies are an important part of society. The law requires companies to disclose to their stakeholders issues that affect investment, viability and employment. Of course, citizens have the right to choose but they also have the right to know the facts, the options and the risks. The nation must have the choice now that these issues are clearer in what will be an irreversible decision. In these circumstances, companies have the right and the obligation to express themselves. That's why, this week we are launching the commercial campaign to give the last word to the people.
The author is a former president of the IWC and president of BT
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