The high voter turnout in Madhya Pradesh polls does not indicate an anti-presidential or opposition-friendly trend, other factors matter

The turnout or the percentage of votes during an election is an inadequate indicator of electorate choice. Trends observed in previous elections reveal that a change in turnout – up or down – from previous elections does not necessarily reflect an anti-presidential or election-friendly climate. deputies.

However, this did not prevent Congress and the BJP counted the positive points of the 75% turnout in Madhya Pradesh, the highest ever recorded up to now in an election to # 39; Assembly.

After Wednesday's vote, Madhya Pradesh's chief minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, said, "I am very confident that the BJP will come back to power by an absolute majority … There are no close combat and the BJP will get the full majority. "

Similarly, Kamal Nath, president of the Madhya Pradesh Congress, said: "I said we would win more than 140 seats, but after today's vote, and with all the information provided it is possible surprising result. "

Despite claims and counterclaims, nothing can be said with certainty until the results are announced on December 11.

The increase in participation rate does not have a fixed trend. Completely different. An increase in the voting percentage – say 3% as in Madhya Pradesh this time – does not mean that people voted against the ruling party because of anti-presidential sentiments or that they voted against the party of the opposition.

In the elections in Madhya Pradesh, the turnout was 60.72% and the Congress had its second consecutive term. In 2003, the participation rate was 67.25%, with a sharp increase of 6.53% in the percentage of polls, but the BJP won with a large majority. Similarly, during the 2008 and 2013 Assembly elections, the turnout was 69.28% and 72.07%, and the BJP won two more terms. There has been a steady increase in the percentage of votes in all these polling stations.

However, the record turnout in this election could be the result of various other factors. Political badysts believe that in addition to the anti-occupation factor, the introduction of new voters, the mobilization of voters, a high decibel campaign, the role of the Indian Election Commission and a renewed Congress strategy could have increase the participation rate. 19659002] New Voters

"Increasing the turnout does not necessarily mean that the people voted against the institution," said Chandrakant Naidu, political commentator and former editor Chief Resident of Hindustan Times First Post "In addition to anti-presidential sentiments, a large number of new voters enthusiastically participated in the elections."

He pointed out that a 3% increase in voter turnout meant an increase of nearly 15 lakh voters. in Madhya Pradesh this time.

Voter Mobilization

The organizational strength of the ruling BJP played a key role in the large-scale mobilization of voters at the newsstand. The opposition congress was not far behind either this time.

"The BJP is better organized and mobilizes voters, but unlike previous meetings, Congress has also worked meticulously on the voting process," Naidu said. "Instead of criticizing or criticizing members of his own party, congressional candidates and workers have remained focused on their constituencies and constituencies, which has helped them to influence voters in their favor."

Anti-incumbency 19659002] The anti-appointment factor against the BJP's 15-year rule can not be ignored. There is a visible anger against the government, if not against the chief minister, for a variety of reasons.

"In this situation, the victory of the Congress in the elections will not be surprising," said Abhilash Khandekar, political commentator and author of Shivraj Singh Shouhan and the rise of Madhya Pradesh . "An increase in the voting percentage does not always mean that people have voted against the government, but Congress has fully exploited its anti-nomination sentiments, alongside issues such as the plight of farmers and the challenge of 64 BJP rebels. , etc. Narendra Modi's government policies, such as demonetization and the GST, added to the BJP's aversion to power. "

Aggressive Campaign

Aggressive Campaign and To a certain extent, the Congress ensured the active participation of voters in Madhya Pradesh. In addition to star activists such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah and Congress President Rahul Gandhi, the large number of rallies by Chouhan and Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia are encouraging voters to participate. to the voting process.

"Jyotiraditya Scindia's Marathon (112) rallies attracted state youth seeking change, and by effectively spreading Digvijay Singh, which turned out to be revealing, Congress actually conquered his constituency ", added Mr. Khandekar. [19659002] Naidu stated that the Congress was not as aggressive as the BJP, but became default by staying silent about the fallout from the BJP. "

Role of the Electoral Commission

The experts hinted that the measures taken by the Indian Election Commission, such as holding safe and fair elections, raising voter awareness through regular commercials, the guarantee easy access

While the last three Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh – 2003, 2008 and 2013 – had been marked by an increase in voter turnout, the number of voters increased. has won every victory, the same can not be said of this election, because the undercurrent can not be evaluated.Despite their victory in 2008, the number of BJP members in the Assembly had dropped by 173 in 2003 to 143 five years later, which was a gain for the Congress.