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November 4 will be remembered as a glorious day of confrontation with the Iranian regime. The re-imposition of US sanctions is the last thing Tehran would have wanted to face when it experienced its largest "revolutionary" expansion in the region and one of the most critical of its domestic situation since 1979. [19659002] Iran 's problem with US President Donald Trump comes from the clarity of the man. During his presidential campaign, he had declared that the nuclear deal was the worst agreement in history and that he would revoke it when he won the presidency. He did exactly what he promised.
The Trump Offensive
Trump is also honest when he says he wants good relations with Iran. His only request is actually quite simple: Iran must stop being what it is. Trump does not know how to use Kissinger's equations as the phrase "it is necessary for Iran to go from a revolution to transformation into a state". His advisors do not have imaginative literary and narrative techniques such as those of former President Barack Obama. Councilor Ben Rhodes, who had written about the close ties between Tehran and Obama and the open hand to greet the Iranians.
Trump speaks a different, simpler and more interactive language. You give me something and I give you something in return and when it does not work, he says, as he told the North Korean president, "My nuclear button is bigger than yours." 19659002] Trump really wants to see an Iran that is different from the one we know now, he sees in Iran a huge market that needs everything from cotton socks to oil refineries and everything in between. also sees its tourism potential and its role in bringing stability to Asia as well as a gateway to solving other insoluble problems in this part of the world – from Israel's security to the resolution of the crisis from insoluble peace, to reducing the climate of extremism and terrorism extinguishing many of the wars threatening the security of a united Europe because of their displaced victims.This is the most important transatlantic achievement in the US did in security matters after the Second World War.
Trump is not an ideological man. What he really wants is a new deal that opens the door to a new Iran. He is not seeking to change the regime, although his administration is beginning to make its way through the remnants of George Bush's administration, particularly through National Security Advisor John Bolton. Its purpose is not to give references to anyone in the name of America to change the image, as Obama wanted and who thought the world would change if it were to change the world. just found the right words to fix it.
Collapse of the Economy [19659004] Trump's policy is as simple as the Iranian crisis. There is no doctrinal rhetoric that can be confronted with doctrinal rhetoric and it only asks the regime what the Iranians themselves are asking of their regime.
It is unfortunate for the regime that these oil sanctions – oil is the backbone of the Iranian regime because it feeds 80% of the revenue of the Treasury – comes at a time characterized by two factors. The first is a global economic downturn and a series of currency crises ranging from Argentina to Turkey. This means the decline in demand for oil. Second, the oil supply surpluses expected in the first half of 2019 come either from an increase in Saudi and Russian production to protect prices from adverse rises, or from the introduction of new producers or barrels from non-traditional producers such as Canada and the United States. . The environment surrounding US sanctions guarantees the depletion of Iran's oil revenues, protects current oil prices and prevents them from rising, thus threatening global economic disasters. In addition, the Trump administration has granted temporary exemptions to eight countries to continue buying Iranian oil. These privileges do not benefit Iran, but are placed in special accounts of the buyer country and in the local currency. They are only used to pay the Iranian bills for food, drugs and material not subject to sanctions.
Iranian Options
A disastrous scenario suggests Tehran and states that Tehran may resort to an escalation at Bab al-Mandeb and in the Strait of Hormuz to create a militarily tense environment threatening the oil trade and the rising oil prices in the hope that the world will turn against the United States. Bab al-Mandeb accounts for about 12% of total international trade. In 2016, the Strait was an entryway for 4.8 million barrels of oil a day, including 2.8 million barrels of oil a day to Europe. In 2016, the Strait of Ormuz accounted for more than 30% of total crude oil and liquid gas trade transported abroad. But any unwanted incident at Bab al-Mandeb and in the Strait of Ormuz, or any obstruction of the Saudi and Emirati transport pipelines at this location and hitting the foundations of the Trump Plan, will push Europe onto the shoulders of America and not the other way around, and prove to the world that Iran is indeed the irrational state that Trump had warned. Tehran can thus submit to a direct military strike launched against him by the Trump government.
The second option, most likely, is that Iran swallows the bitter pill of sanctions and licks its economic wounds for the next two years. years in the hope that Trump's term will end and that he will not return for a second term. Tehran will then negotiate with the new US government by the end of 2020. Iran thinks it has time, but the reality on the ground shows just the opposite.
This article is also available in Arabic.
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Nadim Koteich is one of the leading Arab satirists. His DNA show is broadcast Monday through Friday on Future and Al Hadath channels. He is a columnist at Asharq Alawsat. He tweets @NadimKoteich.
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Last updated: Sunday, November 11, 2018 KSA 10h56 – GMT 07h56
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the editors in this section are theirs and do not reflect the views of Al Arabiya English.
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