A line breaks out as new GDP data reduce the growth rate during the UPA era

NEW DELHI: The government re-estimated the 2011-2012 price-related GDP on Wednesday, which pushed down growth rates under the UPA regime, prompting the Congress Party to criticize it as the desperate attempt by a "defeatist government of Modi" to undermine the evolution of growth over the past 15 years.

Data from the previous series from 2004-05 to 2011-12 showed that the GDP growth rate in 2011-12 was revised to 5.2%, compared to the previous 6.6% growth based on over the 2004-05 base year.

Similarly, growth for 2010-11 was reduced to 8.5% from 10.3% of the previous series. The base year is revised periodically to reflect ongoing changes in the economy.

The retrospective data of the Central Bureau of Statistics (CSO) contrast sharply with those published by a group of experts on real sector statistics compiled by the National Statistical Commission.

The report of the panel of experts chaired by Sudipto Mundle, professor emeritus of the National Institute of Finance and Public Policy, had shown that the growth of the economy had been 10, 8% in 2010-2011. But the government had said the data provided by the panel was "not official", triggering a war of words with the opposition party.

Congress was quick to criticize the latest figures from civil society organizations. "The Modi government and its puppet Niti Aayog want the people to believe that 2 + 2 = 8! This is the gadget, juggling, trickery and sweets sold as" data from the previous series ", said the party in a statement.

In the run-up to the 2019 general election, a bitter political debate has erupted over the management of the economy by the Modi government and the latest data should elicit strong reactions from both sides. As a result of the new data, the average growth over the 10 years of UPA is 6.8%, while the NDA's rule of four has averaged 7.3% growth.

A senior government official said that it was right that the growth rate of previous years be re-estimated with the help of 2011-12 prices when current growth rates are based on these data.

Data from the previous series were published after verification of methodological quality by country statistics experts. The NITI Aayog government think tank had organized two roundtables in which experts from the field participated to ensure the quality of coverage and methodology.

"The new data published today by the CSO for 2004-05-2011 based on reference year 2011-12 represents a significant improvement, both in terms of coverage and methodology. The new series, with its base series, is internationally comparable and in line with the standard national account of the United Nations, "said Rajiv Kumar, vice president of Niti Aayog.

Kumar said that it was painful to read the Congressional statement. "They completely denigrate the intellectual and technical skills of experts from civil society organizations, but also from the 10 renowned statisticians who have rigorously examined, verified and certified the rigor of the data in the back series," Kumar told TOI. .

Chief Statistician Pravin Srivastava stated that the new methodology adopted for the data was robust and comparable worldwide.

In January 2015, the statistics office had released the new series of national accounts and revised the base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12. He explained that the methodology used to prepare the estimates for the back series is "largely identical to that used in the new base year".

Former chief statistician T C A Anant said that the Mundle Committee was an academic exercise, that it was not official and that its applicability was limited. He said that he had made several important recommendations and that it would be wrong to consider it only in one element.

He stated that the CSO had done a fair job with the rear serial numbers given the availability of the data. "It's a fair and comprehensive exercise," said Anant referring to CSO data.

Pronab Sen, another former chief statistician, said that by forcing Niti Aayog to publish the data, the whole process had been politicized. "This is the first time that anyone other than the CSO publishes GDP data." Previously, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs had knowledge of the data at the time of publication. by the CSO, it was totally useless, "Sen said. "I do not doubt that the CSO did a good job, but it was useless," he added.

An independent economist said that the divergence of the estimates was not surprising. "Two economists will have three opinions," he said, refusing to be named.