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A new poll USA TODAY / Suffolk University reveals what really concerns voters who are preparing for the November mid-term elections.
UNITED STATES OF TODAY
WASHINGTON – Representative Barbara Comstock became the first Republican to lose a seat in the House of Commons Tuesday in a wealthy suburb of northern Virginia According to projections by CNN and NBC News.
Democrat Jennifer Wexton, state senator and former domestic violence prosecutor, Comstock tried to stand out from Trump, butfailed in an increasingly democratic district. Hillary Clinton won the award here in 2016 10 percentage points, and political handicappers expect a Comstock loss.
This result was swift as US voters went to the polls on Tuesday after a final blitz of TV commercials, e-mails, and election rallies in the bitter struggle for control.
As election day approached, polls of dozens of congressional events across the country showed that they were too close to be called. According to the latest polls, Democrats had a slight advantage to win the majority of seats in the House, but the end result remained unpredictable.
"We're going to win tonight," said California Representative Nancy Pelosi, head of the Democratic Party in the House, in an interview with PBS NewsHour on Tuesday night.
Also addressing PBS, Ronna Romney McDaniel, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said it could be a "tough night" but hoped the GOP could retain its majority in the House.
Democrats must get 23 seats in the House to prevent Republicans from taking control of it. The battlefield extends across the country – with over 70 highly contested races from New Jersey to California.
At stake: the agenda of President Donald Trump for the next two years. If Democrats win the majority, they can use the aggressive congressional control powers to demand Trump's tax returns, summon members of his cabinet to appear, and investigate allegations of corruption in the executive branch. And they can block the president's legislative priorities, whether it is to fund the construction of a wall along the US-Mexico border or limit access rights programs. .
If Republicans remain in power, Trump will be able to pursue a broad conservative agenda over the next two years. – including radical immigration policies, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the lowering of environmental regulations.
The president's party usually loses its seats in the mid-term elections. In 2006, President George W. Bush called the election results "shocking" when his party lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate, giving control of both houses to the Democrats and ushering in the first woman president, Mrs. Nancy Pelosi. President Barack Obama, in 2010, described the debate as "slyly" when the Democrats lost 63 seats – and control of the Chamber of Deputies – and six seats in the Senate with the rise of the Tea Party movement
Tuesday's results will also prepare the scene for the 2020 presidential campaign. A GOP victory in this election would put Trump in a strong position to win a second term and strengthen his control over the Republican party. A democratic victory would boost the so-called liberal "resistance" and would support a party that was still struggling with Trump's surprise victory in 2016.
Trump spent the last days of the 2018 campaign intensifying his anti-immigrant speech and present the Democrats as moderate people. immigration. He promised to close the border with Mexico, saying that a caravan of migrants included strangers from the "Middle East" and threatened to build "tent cities" to prevent people from entering the country. country.
Democrats said Trump was using fear to motivate GOP voters. . They have devoted much of their energy and advertising dollars to health care – highlighting the Republican's efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and remove the protections afforded to people with pre-existing conditions.
These themes remained in the minds of voters. Polls, according to a survey conducted by Washington Post-Schar School on Monday and Tuesday in battlefield districts across the country.
The survey found that 44% of voters said that health care was the most important factor for voting, 43 percent said Trump was the main cause of their decision. Immigration and the economy were about 10 percentage points below, according to post-Schar data.
The first hints as to whether Tuesday will bring a blue wave, a red wave or none, will begin to emerge after polls close in key states of the East Coast and Midwest, beginning at 6 pm. Eastern Standard Time. But full results will only be available around midnight or later, while voters from California and other western states have completed their vote.
With dozens of unmoved races going all the way, the battle of election day may even spread. for days, with possible recounts across the country. Here are the key races to watch for:
More: What is at stake midway? Both sides warn that the future of our democracy is in danger
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First Indications to the East
The 7th District of Virginia (19459044)
President Donald Trump won that seat by 7 percentage points in 2016, so if Spanberger wins, this is a good night for the Democrats, said Dave Wbaderman, editor of Cook's non-partisan political report. He said that this race was one of the best beginners of the early Democratic elections on Tuesday.
3rd and 7th districts of New Jersey
There are a handful of GOP-held seats that are now competitive. through the state. The two most vulnerable Republicans are Representative Tom MacArthur (in the 3rd District of New Jersey) and Representative Leonard Lance (in the 7th State). MacArthur helped draft the bill on the repeal of Obamacare, which turned negative for House Republicans. MacArthur also voted in favor of tax cuts imposed by the GOP, which, according to his New Jersey compatriots, and even the state chamber of commerce, would hurt the state.
The 26th and 27th Districts of Florida
Two Florida races will test the electoral strength of moderate Republicans in swing districts. Representative Carlos Curbelo has a strong image of a centrist Republican ready to denounce the president, but it is unclear whether it will be enough to hold the 26th congressional district of Florida, won by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton 16 points . . He runs against former Vice Dean of Florida International University Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The 27th District of Florida Congress is at stake because GOP representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has decided to retire. The district is strongly Hispanic but the former Secretary of Health and Social Services, Donna Shalala, Democrat, does not speak Spanish. Meanwhile, Republicans have landed a rookie with former TV reporter Maria Elvira Salazar. Clinton won the district by 20 percentage points in 2016.
3rd district of West Virginia
If this district turns blue, the night will probably be very good for the Democrats. Trump won the district by 73 percentage points, but the current GOP holder is retiring, making the race more competitive. Democratic state, Senator Richard Ojeda (a former Trump voter) could win a victory here by sheer personality. Retired army paratrooper who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, he gave his mobile phone number in one of his campaign videos and promised not to support the representative of California , Nancy Pelosi, as a speaker. State delegate Carol Miller, a bison farmer and social conservative, presents herself as a Trump-style Republican with the promise of "cutting the bull" in Washington.
Midwest Messages
The 8th District of Michigan [19659008] Trump carried this district by 7 percentage points. Representative Mike Bishop has represented the district, located on the outskirts of Detroit suburbs, one way or another for most of the past 20 years. But this year, it's considered a stunt. Elissa Slotkin, opponent of Bishop's Democratic, is a former defense official in the Obama administration.
Minnesota's 1st and 8th Districts
Minnesota's 1st and 8th congressional districts are both open Democrat seats that went to double-digit Trump in 2016 – in others terms, two opportunities for taking control of the GoG in an otherwise difficult climate for Republicans.
The 8th district is likely to run for the GOP. But the 1st district is a real coup de theater. It is a heavily agricultural region hit hard by the Trump administration's tariffs. It will therefore be a good test of the President's trade policy enforcement in agricultural countries – and Trump's popularity with this segment of the electorate.
6th District of Kentucky
This district includes Lexington and Frankfurt and should not be competitive. Trump won by 15 percentage points in 2016. But the political party representative, Andy Barr, faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath, a former Navy fighter pilot who has challenged the Republican and Democratic institutions. McGrath drew the national audience with his viral TV commercials, including one that featured 89 combat missions and noting that a congressman had told him, at the age of 13, that women should not not be allowed to serve in combat.
3rd District of Kansas
This was a squeaky district in 2016. Clinton won here a little over a percentage point and the representative Republican Kevin Yoder fired another term. This time, Yoder was cut off from his party's electoral wing as the GOP views the race as a lost cause. Democrat Sharice Davids, a lawyer and mixed martial arts veteran, is expected to win this seat, which includes the suburbs of Kansas City. She will also go down in history as an openly gay American.
Iowa's First and Third Districts
Iowa's 1st Congressional District is a rotating seat currently represented by Rod Blum, the representative of the Freedom Caucus. Democrat Abby Finkenauer, a 29-year-old representative, comes out against Blum, highlighting her roots in the working clbad. Blum is a businessman who has become a politician and could be negatively impacted by the president's tariffs. Trump won the 1 st and 3 rd congressional districts by almost 4 percentage points. In District 3, political party representative David Young faces a challenge from small business owner Cindy Axne. The third district includes Des Moines and Council Bluffs and has an equal number of registered Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated Republicans, so the contest will be open to independent voters.
Southern Signals
The 7th and 32nd Districts of Texas
The GOP has long occupied these rich, educated districts of Texas, but the two were closely directed to Clinton in 2016, with less than 2 percentage points each. The Republican Rep. John Culberson, who represents Houston, is implicated by Democratic Lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. GOP District, Pete Sessions, includes the suburbs of Dallas, where it faces Colin Allred, a civil rights lawyer and former NFL Titan player, Tennessee Titans. Sessions have not faced a competitive race for years, but the Republican Pillar is now considered the most vulnerable GOP Congressman in Texas.
Confirmation of the Coast
The 3rd District of Nevada
This is one of many open democratic seats that were won by Trump in 2016, although one percentage point. With the decision of incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen to run for the Senate, this is one of the few GOP points of view this year. Republican businessman Danny Tarkanian almost won the district in 2016 and enjoys the support of the president in his bid against Democrat Susie Lee, philanthropist.
The 25th, 39th, 45th, 48th and 49th Districts of California
On the West Coast, Democrats see a golden opportunity to overthrow several seats that have long been bastions Republicans. The 39th district is open after the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Ed Royce, has decided to retire. His former badistant and former member of the Assembly, Young Kim, hopes to take his place. But it faces the competition of the winner of the lottery and the democrat Gil Cisneros. The 49th District of California is open after Representative Darrell Issa, the former chairman of the House's oversight committee, said he would not run again. Democrat Mike Levin, a lawyer, faces Republican Diane Harkey, chairman of the state's tax administration board and former mayor of the city. GOP representatives Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher and Steve Knight also face competitive challenges.
More: Here's What 27 Races Under the Sign of a Possible Democratic Blue Wave
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