Democrats suffer major setback in Senate with likely loss in Indiana

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Democrats hope for a "blue wave" in mid-term elections, but they defend more seats than challenges. Will they lose seats?
USA TODAY

WASHINGTON – Democrats' hopes The victory in Indiana's Senate, Senator Joe Donnelly, was a big hit Tuesday in the Senate.

Beto's fierce challenge O & # 39; Rourke vs. Texas Republican Ted Cruz gave Democrats hope to gain ground elsewhere in their difficult battle to gain control of the Senate.

Democrat Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia survived in a state won by President Donald Trump by 42 percentage points.

But the battle of the Senate in the beating state of Florida was Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and the Governor of the GOP neck to shoulder

At the same time, Fox News and CNN were planning that Republican Marsha Blackburn would defeat Democrat Phil Bredesen in a GOP-held seat, which the Democrats hoped to overthrow. 19659008] T Associated Press said GOP challenger Mike Braun winner of Donnelly. Trump has been to Indiana three times in the last two weeks to generate support for the Republican candidate.

Donnelly was one of five Democrats in power who struggled for survival in states easily swept away by Trump.

Trump nicknamed Donnelly "Sleepin 'Joe" at a campaign rally a few days after Braun won a tough race at the GOP as an outsider in the mold of President Donald Trump.

The spokesman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Joyce, boasted Tuesday of the party. Donnelly has received a new nickname: "We think that will really stay: the former Senator Donnelly."

Although Democrats in the House headed Tuesday with the wind in their backs, Senate Republicans were hoping to add to their slim majority of 51 to 49 years.

The reason? Democrats defend 26 of the 35 polls, including 10 in states won by Donald Trump.

"It's the worst card I've ever seen for a party," wrote veteran political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg.

In addition to Donnelly and Manchin, the other Democrats in the larger Trump states are Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Jon Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri.

The last time they participated in the vote, the nation was not in the ballot. "People are voting in a more parliamentary way," said Charlie Cook, chief of Cook's non-partisan political report.

Voters focused on the political party in an unparliamentary way. Local issues – such as helping veterans – while putting strong emphasis on health care, a topic that is generating a lot of cross-calls, especially for female voters. They promised to be with Trump when they agree with him and keep him standing when they are not.

Red State Democrats have the difficult task of maintaining their enthusiastic base about their candidacies for reelection, while attracting enough Republicans to carry their state.

After Manchin voted for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the liberal group MoveOn.org did not include West Virginia in its voter mobilization campaign.

"We simply felt that we could not spend in good faith the money of our members in a race where the Democratic candidate was so far away from our members." are on such an important issue, "said Nick Berning of MoveOn.

Trump focused his last election campaign on Republican voting in the states bordering the Senate.

" I think I made a big difference ", declared the president in front of the White House on Sunday before flying to more states. "I think I made a difference of five, six or seven years."

His election campaigns do not have any effect. did not include Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan – the United States Trump were narrowly worn, but the reelection campaigns were easier than expected.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics of the United States. University of Virginia calls them "fast-flipping" states.Trump's small margin in 2016 means that there are many "voters" who have a party identity not aligned with the president. "[19659008] "As soon as the opportunity arises, they reaffirm their old self, "he said.

On the other hand, the longtime president O 's campaign Rourke, led by social media against Cruz, challenges the supporters of red Texas: in New Jersey, very blue, the Democrats must pay millions of dollars in last-minute advertising to help Senator Bob Menendez, a victim of corruption and two other corruption charges last fall, and then reprimanded by the Senate's bipartisan committee on corruption. 'ethics.

Democrats hope to make up for losses in Tennessee and Arizona, states where the Republican president has chosen not to run for office after publicly criticizing the position. Trump.

In Nevada, where Senator Dean Heller is the only Republican senator to have to be re-elected in a lost state, Trump has already kissed Trump and tried to create some distance.

Heller his 80% of what the president has done is "very very good", the rest is a "reality show".

Conclude that the path of Democrats to win the Senate on Tuesday is a bit narrow, Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, leader of the Senators Democratic Senate campaign group, said his party was in much better shape than anybody would have predicted 18 months ago, when Republicans thought they could win enough seats for get a foolproof majority of filibuster obstruction. [19659008] "Nobody is talking about it yet," Van Hollen told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

The cook, a non-partisan disabled, said that it was possible for Democrats to be given a seat in the Senate. But the most likely outcome, he predicted Friday, before the elections, is that Republicans remain at least stable, or even win one or two seats in the Senate, while losing their seat.

The Senate does not always go in the same direction. like the House in an election. In 1970, for example, the Republicans surrendered 10 seats in the House while winning one in the Senate.

But a party never lost total control of the House while increasing power in the Senate, according to Eric Ostermeier, author of the report. Smart Politics blog led by the University of Minnesota.

"It's unusual because the chances are so great in favor of the party that is actually the least popular party," Sabato said. "The Democrats were pretty much at the origin of the eighth Senate sitting since the beginning."

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