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Goldman Sachs estimates that the price of oil and other commodities is expected to rebound next year and that the first catalyst could come this weekend at a G-20 summit in Argentina, where leaders could discuss US-Chinese trade stalemate and OPEC's idea of starting to reduce production again.
"Given the magnitude of commodity price shifts relative to fundamentals, as oil is now badociated with lower prices than cost support, we believe that commodities provide an extremely attractive starting point. oil, gold and base, "Goldman said in a CNBC research report on Monday.
The G-20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week will see the participation of the three personalities able to evolve decisions regarding oil production policies – US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman In addition, President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the summit for discuss the trade war
If the world's leading politicians reach an agreement on trade and a reduction in trade OPEC, they could offer to the oil market. uncertainties about current geopolitical uncertainties affecting oil prices – global economic slowdown and excess supply of oil.
Many of these uncertainties have a chance to be addressed at the summit, including "some improvements on the Sino-US relationship as in the 2016 G20 meetings, greater clarity on a possible reduction in OPEC, "said Goldman Sachs. See also: The Global Expansion of $ 500 Billion from Aramco
Last week, the bank of Investing said that volatility would be strong over the next few weeks as prices would require a fundamental catalyst to stabilize. "Although we did not think Brent prices were warranted at $ 86 a barrel, we do not believe Nor are they at $ 59 a barrel with our 2019 forecast for Brent at $ 70 a barrel, "said Goldman in today 's note, quoted by Reuters. ] At the same time, hedge funds have ram their net long position – the gap between bullish and bearish bets – in the Brent Crude to the lowest since January 2016, when the price of oil collapsed below the $ 30 a barrel mark, according to Bloomberg estimates on data provided by ICE Futures Europe.
After falling 7% on Friday, WTI crude and Brent crude both rose more than 2% at 9:40 am EST Monday.
Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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