[ad_1]
MOSCOW – National Security Adviser John R. Bolton is in Moscow this week to explain to officials the decision of President Trump to withdraw from a 1987 arms control pact.
M. Trump and his uncompromising collaborators, particularly Mr. Bolton, have long expressed dissatisfaction with the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because they claim that Russia is violating the conditions and that China is not a signatory.
"Unless Russia comes to see us and China comes to see us, they all come to tell us that they say," Let's make sure we're all smart and that we do not have to go anywhere. " 39, between us developing these weapons, "" America would withdraw and start building new nuclear weapons, Mr. Trump said after a rally on Saturday.
In response, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry S. Peskov, alluded to a new arms race, saying that Russia would also be forced to develop new weapons "to restore balance in this area. . "
The proposal and the Kremlin's reaction raised immediate questions about an aging arms control treaty that few people under the age of 30 even knew existed." Is it really so important that his death triggers a global arms race?
What is I.N.F. Treaty?
The treaty solved the crisis of the 1980s when the Soviet Union was deploying a missile in Europe called SS-20, capable of carrying three nuclear warheads. The United States reacted with Cruise Missiles and Pershing II missiles
At the time President Reagan and Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Soviet leader of the time, reached an agreement with a view to the banning weapons in 1987, intermediate-range missiles had arrived to be seen as a trigger for nuclear war because of the brevity of their flying time – as little as 10 minutes.
This situation was particularly disturbing for the Soviet command, which could be wiped out by a "lightning strike". could order a reprisal attack. Partly in response to this shortcoming, Moscow has developed a " dead hand trigger" to launch its arsenal against the United States without order from leaders, based on computers interpreting radiation and seismic sensors.
In Ukraine, a government newspaper published an article claiming that this system using "artificial intelligence" to order a nuclear war was still operational even though it was not activated in time of peace.
The treaty prohibited cruise missiles or ballistic missiles based within a distance of 311 miles. and 3,420 miles. It did not cover weapons launched by air or sea, such as US Tomahawk and Kalibr Russian cruise missiles fired from ships, submarines or airplanes, and easily traveling similar distances.
Is Russia really cheating? certainly seems so. It is the Obama administration that first accused Russia of violating the treaty in 2014, while the crisis in Ukraine amplified tensions. US authorities have stated that Moscow is openly deploying a banned missile that the West calls the SSC-8, a land-based cruise missile that threatens European nations.
Even under the Obama regime, the United States argued that Russia was violating the treaty because it had deployed prohibited tactical nuclear weapons intended to intimidate Europe and the nations of the world. ex-Soviet state aligned with the West.
But the biggest concern of the Trump administration may well be in Asia, where the 1980s were planned. A covenant now compels the United States to place short and medium-range land-based missiles in response to China's efforts to define a sphere of influence and to keep naval forces at a distance from the Western Pacific. .
The Chinese, although not signatories to the treaty, weighed on Monday, declaring that they also opposed the unilateral withdrawal of the United States.
Bolton, addressing the Echo of Moscow radio station in Moscow, replied that "the Chinese do not participate in this agreement and want it to be preserved".
This was hardly a surprise, he said, adding, "If I were Chinese I would say the same thing."
What was the reaction of Russia?
In short, with warnings of an arms race and other apocalyptic threats.
Asked about the possibility of a withdrawal from the United States earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin spoke about the nuclear Armada, saying that the Russians were ready to launch an attack from the United States. retaliation because they knew they would go to paradise in a nuclear war.
"The attackers must know: revenge is inevitable and they will be destroyed," Putin said. "And we, victims of aggression, will go straight to paradise as martyrs, while they will only croak."
The others were a little more restricted.
"Any action in this area will provoke a reaction," Sergey V Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, told reporters before a meeting with Bolton.
It was official warnings of a new arms race, an outside expert threatening that Russia would develop a swarm of small bombs carried by drones. hit the United States, implying that this measure was a bluff on the eve of mid-term elections in the United States.
On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Mr. Peskov denied that Russia had violated the treaty, saying that "on the contrary, it is the Americans who have violated its spirit. Russia argues that US missile batteries in Europe could be used for offensive weapons firing and that armed drones were flying within the limits prohibited by the treaty for cruise missiles.
With Mr. Bolton in town, the government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta, published an article entitled " Trump turns to blackmail," suggesting that he was applying the same intransigent tactics as that used for the agreements in the framework of a nuclear agreement.
How do Europeans see the problem? Curiously, although the new intermediate-range Russian missiles are threatening Europe, it is the European leaders who have protested the withdrawal of the treaty the most.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said in a statement that the treaty was "an important pillar of our European policy. security architecture ", while many badysts have noted that the issue could potentially create a new divide between the United States and Europe at a time of high tension for the trans Maja Kocijancic, spokesman for the 39, European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said in a statement that "the United States and the Russian Federation must remain engaged in a constructive dialogue to preserve the IFF Treaty" because " the world does not need a new arms race ".
But as Russia prepares to deploy a hypersonic missile not covered by existing arms control agreements, China deploying intermediate-range missiles and the United States intervening by changing cruise missiles to deploy in Asia, many experts say that the world is already engaged in one of them.
