In anticipation of the 2019 elections, the government will reduce the GDP growth rate during the UPA era

The government lowered Wednesday the country 's economic growth rate under the previous UPA regime, led by Congress, falling to more than a percentage point in the only year in which the country' s economic growth rate fell. India posted double-digit GDP growth after liberalization and each of the 9-percent expansion.

Recalibrating data from previous years using 2011-12 as a base year instead of 2004-05, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated that India's GDP had increased by 8.5 % during the 2010-2011 fiscal year (from April 2010 to March). 2011) and not at 10.3% as previously estimated.

Similarly, growth rates of 9.3% in 2005-06 and 2006-07 were reduced to 7.9% and 8.1% respectively, while the 7.7% rate was now estimated for 2007-08 instead of 9.8%.

Revised growth figures were released before the 2019 general election.

At a joint press conference with chief statistician Pravin Srivastava, Niti Aayog's vice president, Rajiv Kumar, said the variation of two sets of numbers was due to the recalibration of data in some sectors of the economy, including mining, quarrying and telecommunications.

"The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has undertaken a complex exercise to update the National Accounts series, and this new series has brought important methodological improvements," said Mr. Kumar.

He added that the new series, with the corresponding back series, is "internationally comparable and is in line with the standard national account of the United Nations".

When asked if it was coincidental whether the GDP figures had been revised downward only for the period covered by the APU, Kumar replied in the negative.

"No, it was not a coincidence – it was an arduous job done by the leaders of the civil society organizations, who had taken the trouble to do all the work. recalibrating the economy they had carried out, "he said, adding that the adopted methodology had been approved by the major statisticians.

Kumar added that the government did not intend to mislead or attempt to do anything deliberate that does not reflect reality.

The GDP growth rate for 2008-09 – the year having been marked by the global financial crisis – was reduced to 3.1%, compared to 3.9% in the previous estimate. For the following years, the same was revised to 7.9% of 8.5% and for 2011-12, growth was reduced to 5.2% of 6.6%.

In January 2015, the government went from a base year 2011-12 to a year prior to 2004-05 for the national accounts. The base year of the national accounts had been revised earlier in January 2010.

The so-called retrospective data released on Wednesday contrasts with the August 2018 report of the Committee on Real Sector Statistics appointed by the National Statistical Commission (NSC), the autonomous body responsible for the data collection by the Indian statistical service. agencies.

In the report, which the government later said was a draft to garner stakeholder feedback, the economy had grown faster under the 2004-05 UPA government in 2013-14, compared to average growth over the first four years. years of the current government.

He placed the GDP growth at 10.08% in 2006-07 under the then prime minister, Manmohan Singh, the highest since the liberalization of the economy in 1991. The highest growth rate ever recorded since independence was 10.2%. cent in 1988-89 when Rajiv Gandhi was Prime Minister.

The committee's report was not accepted and Kumar stated that the methodology adopted by them was flawed.

Explaining the reasons for the discrepancy in the data sets, Srivastava stated in the new series that the primary sector's share of total gross value added (GVA) was higher than that of the previous series 2004-05, essentially due to changes in data sources. .

In the extractive industries sector, regular annual public sector reporting has been used instead of the 2004-05 Indian Bureau of Mines database.

According to the CSO, the share of the secondary sector in the total GVA has increased in the back series compared to the 2004-05 series. The increase is largely due to the use of data from the Ministry of General Affairs (MCA) and the public sector in the organized electricity and manufacturing sectors, which previously came from the annual reports of private companies. electricity and the annual survey of industries.

The tertiary sector share, which mainly includes services, in the total GVA decreased in the back series compared to the 2004-05 series.

By giving an example, according to Kumar, in the communications sector, in the old series, the baseline estimates had been modified according to the growth in the number of subscribers in the telecommunications sector, with growth exceeding 20%.

In the new series, the minutes of use were adopted, which better reflects the behavior of this sector, said the vice president of Niti Aayog.

GDP figures for fiscal years 2012-2013 and old series are not available for comparison, said Kumar, adding that the methodology for calculating national accounts was in line with global standards.