India should monitor Kabul closely, the death of General Raziq conferring on the ISI a crucial role in the stabilization of Afghanistan

In one of the latest attacks, the Taliban killed Kandahar police chief, Brigadier General Abdul Raziq Achakzai, and National Security Chief (NDS) chief Abdul Momin, in addition to have left the governor of Kandahar, Zalmai Wesa, seriously injured. [19659002] The commander-in-chief of the United States and NATO for Afghanistan, General Austin Scott Miller, also present at the meeting in the precincts of the governor of Kandahar, s & # 39; escaped unscathed, although the Taliban claimed that it was the main target.

In particular, the loss of General Raziq. is a big setback in the war against the Taliban. As chief of police, Raziq had been given state control over Kandahar. Having lost his father and his Taliban uncle at a young age, Raziq began his career as a member of the Border Police in 2001, but quickly rose through the ranks. He then received strong support from the US authorities and created his own militia, which also gave him much needed autonomy to deal with the Taliban, regardless of the legal provisions. Compromises are increasingly blamed for human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings, and his image as a warlord rather than police chief, but Kandahar nonetheless enjoys stability.

While Raziq is dead and that no viable successor is in sight, the biggest challenge for Kandahar's defenses is to find a replacement if we want to prevent that. it does not come under the control of the Taliban, because a new Taliban offensive on the province seems likely.

The most tangible impact is the postponement of elections in the province of one week, which partially goes against the Taliban's strategy of discrediting the country's emerging electoral democratic tradition . However, it remains to be seen to what extent voter turnout is affected, especially when the number of civilian deaths reached a record this year (according to data from the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan). ).

That the attack comes at a time when Washington is in talks with the Taliban – on issues related to the exit of forces and the maintenance of bases on proposed power-sharing in the Kabul administration – automatically gives him a stronger position.

Stabilization of Afghanistan is essential for South Asia's US President Donald Trump. The strategy and the appointment of a tough negotiator like former diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad as a special envoy to Afghanistan last month are also disputed, as such high-profile attacks would only give up a plus. large strategic space in the Taliban. Seen in this light, one can understand that General Miller escapes his wounds as part of the Taliban's strategy to strengthen their position while avoiding antagonizing Washington beyond a threshold that could give rise to unwanted reprisals.

Washington started the talks, making for the first time "a top US diplomat and Taliban insurgents who would have held talks," although informal channels of communication have long existed. In anticipation of the meeting between Alice Wells and Taliban representatives, Colonel Christopher Kolenda and former diplomat Robin Raphael had been meeting the Taliban in Doha since July 2017. The hopes of a breakthrough had grown since the ceasefire. -Eid fire that lasted three days in June.

Although Washington has been successful in engaging Taliban elements ready to speak, current developments seem to be taking away only the situation, which is only distracting attention from Washington's stance. the Taliban have only demonstrated his invincibility. Ironically, the pattern of attacks suggests a resurgence of violence every time the news of the negotiations has been announced, whether with Washington or with Kabul.

Reading New Delhi

These developments are also essential. reminder in New Delhi to closely monitor the evolving power relations between the Taliban and African-American leaders in the context of strengthening the role of Pakistani security agencies.

In editorials and opinion pieces published in major Indian newspapers, a supposed link would have been established between Pakistan's dependence on the IMF for a rescue and the tacit support of the nation to the Taliban. Several Afghan-Pakistani veteran observers have argued that Washington should only save the deteriorating economic situation in Pakistan after ensuring that Islamabad and Rawalpindi would pressure the Taliban to reach a agreement with the United States.

Pakistan asks or not for an IMF bailout, there is no reason to expect a change of Taliban strategy imposed by the IIS. The same goes for the Financial Action Group (FATF) decision speech last June, which placed Pakistan on the gray list of countries "likely to be sanctioned by economic sanctions". They did not prevent terrorists from raising funds in their field. ".

At the same time, the US Department of State's 2017 report on terrorism recently reported that the implementation of anti-terrorist financing measures remained uneven despite existing institutional arrangements. Unfortunately, this did not generate the international pressure we so badly needed.

This does not mean that talking about pressuring Pakistan in this way is futile, but the current dynamic would not make it work as some in New Delhi expect. Basically, the growing strategic depth that the Taliban has given to the ISI would not be traded at all costs, this also at the present time when it expects greater concessions. from Washington, who is ready to negotiate things.

The author is an badociate researcher at the Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi