International Asteroid Day: Are we ready if an asteroid strikes the Earth?



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In 1908, a powerful asteroid struck the Podkamennaya Tunguska River in an isolated Siberian forest in Russia. The event leveled trees and destroyed forests on 770 square miles, which corresponds to the size of three quarters of the US state of Rhode Island. The impact has thrown people to the ground in a city 40 miles away.

Five years ago, an asteroid entered the Earth's atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia. It exploded in the air, releasing 20 to 30 times more energy than the first atomic bombs, generating greater brightness than the sun, exuding heat, damaging more than 7,000 buildings and injuring more than 1,000 people. people.

The shockwave broke the windows 58 miles away. He went undetected because the asteroid came in the same direction and the same path as the sun.

NASA and other space organizations around the world are focused on detecting the threat of near-Earth objects (or near-Earth objects). Near-Earth objects are asteroids and comets whose orbits place them within 30 million miles of Earth.

There are no known NEOs that display a significant threat, NASA announced last week. NASA's NEO program funds and supports observatory detection and monitoring efforts across the United States and in space and collaborates with other observatories around the world [19659008] This item is not supposed to be in our solar system ” data-src-mini=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-small-169.jpg” data-src-xsmall=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-medium-plus-169.jpg” data-src-small=”http://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-large-169.jpg” data-src-medium=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-exlarge-169.jpg” data-src-large=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-super-169.jpg” data-src-full16x9=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-full-169.jpg” data-src-mini1x1=”//cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180521133018-01-first-interstellar-immigrant-small-11.jpg” data-demand-load=”not-loaded” data-eq-pts=”mini: 0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large: 781″ src=”data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhEAAJAJEAAAAAAP///////wAAACH5BAEAAAIALAAAAAAQAAkAAAIKlI+py+0Po5yUFQA7″/>

According to Dante Lauretta, Principal Investigator at NASA's OSIRIS-Rex Mission, Asteroids hit the Earth every day. Most of them are so small that they burn in the atmosphere. But small asteroids can still do damage, especially if they explode in the air above a city like Chelyabinsk. And the smaller they are, the more difficult the asteroids are to detect.

But new technologies and planetary defense plans could change that. An Asteroid Action Plan

Last week, the US National Science and Technology Council released the National Land Preparation Strategy and its plan of action that coordinate NASA's efforts over the next 10 years. Technological Policy and FEMA. This plan acts on a strategy that was established by the US government in 2016.
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The objectives of the plan include improving the detection, tracking and identification of NEOs, improving predictive modeling, developing technologies to hijack and disrupt NEOs, intensification of international cooperation to prepare NEOs and the establishment of emergency protocols.

The damage that an asteroid can inflict depends on its size. The one who killed the dinosaurs was 15 kilometers (9.3 miles). Scientists have mapped 90% of asteroids of one kilometer or more and know that they will not pose a threat, said Detlef Koschny, chief of the Earth's Near-Earth Objects team. 39, European Space Agency.

But we have detected and mapped less than 1% of NEOs for less than one kilometer. The smaller the asteroid, the more likely it is to impact the Earth. According to Koschny, 100-meter asteroids hit every 10,000 years and 50-meter asteroids every 1,000 years.

Asteroids of about 20 meters, like that of Chelyabinsk, occur on average every 10 to 100 years. "We will definitely see something like this in our life," says Koshcny

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According to the new report, NASA will search for asteroids 50 meters in diameter. Previously, it focused on larger, 100 meters wide and larger because they have the ability to affect whole regions and continents. But asteroids less than 50 meters in diameter can also inflict significant damage. According to NASA, 10 million NEOs over 20 meters and 300,000 objects over 40 meters might pose a risk of impact, but they are hard to detect more than a few days in the future. ;advanced.

The Asteroid Institute is also partnering with Google Cloud and Analytical Graphics Inc. to track asteroid discoveries with the help of a cloud-based platform for the project Asteroid Decision Analysis and Mapping.

This was conceived because in a few years, the large scale synoptic telescope will be put online and will allow the discovery of tens of thousands of asteroids in orbits that could bring them closer to Earth, said Ed Lu , executive director of the Asteroid Institute and a former NASA astronaut.

"There will be a lot more data and observations on asteroids," said Lu. "We are preparing for this avalanche of data and, with our partners, we are working to understand how we will be able to to determine if an asteroid will touch the Earth. "More sighting means less uncertainty." [19659002]

Asteroid Missions

In 2005, Congress charged NASA to find at least 90% of NEOs at least 140 meters by 2020. Since then, the total number of NEOs has increased by five However, current capabilities and estimates suggest that we can find less of the half of these objects from here to 2033. That is why the new plan puts the emphasis on improving the detection of NEOs and promoting these capabilities.

There are planned and ongoing multiple missions that will study asteroids and deflect them.

NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft will spend two years in space to catch up with an asteroid named Bennu, a large, rounded space rock on NASA's list of potentially dangerous asteroids. This means that Bennu is one of the most dangerous space rocks we know because it could one day collide with the Earth. It was launched in September 2016 and will reach Bennu at the end of this year to study the composition of the asteroid.
  NASA launches spaceship to intercept the asteroid
the diamond-shaped asteroid Ryugu three years after it unleashed its Mission

The spacecraft is 12.4 miles from the asteroid, from where it will launch a projectile into the rock in order to excavate samples below the surface. Later, Hayabusa2 will touch the asteroid and collect the samples. He will depart from Ryugu in December 2019 and will eventually return to Earth by the end of 2020.

  A Japanese spacecraft reaches a diamond-shaped asteroid after a 3-year trip [19459011

Asteroid Redirect Mission of NASA was designed to develop a spacecraft robotic space that would collect a multiton rock from the surface of an NEO and redirect that rock into orbit around the moon, proving that we can change the orbit of an NEO on a less threatening path. The mission was canceled at the end of 2017.

The new plan suggests developing deflection and disruption missions, such as gravity tractors, kinetic impactors (such as DART) and even a nuclear explosive capable of breaking up asteroids of some size. pieces that would disintegrate.

This may sound like an apocalyptic preparation for "Deep Impact" or "Armageddon", but the asteroids to which they are destined will probably not cause the end of all mankind.

And If an Asteroid Strikes the Earth

NASA believes that we need 10 years' notice to properly prepare for an asteroid on a collision course with the Earth. The more we catalog asteroids, the more likely we are to track them and mitigate the risks with such a time frame.

And if we had 10 years' notice, sophisticated plans must be put in place and communicated globally.

"If there must be an evacuation, where do you evacuate?" asked Debbie Lewis, specialist in asteroid risk management and communications. "Rather than a tent village scenario, I hope that they will be able to put in place something more comprehensive. Having a 10 year notice certainly allows communities to plan their own." The urgency of putting something in place. "

United States NASA's Global Defense Coordination Office is responsible for providing fast and accurate communication of potentially dangerous objects. The new US action plan includes the efforts of NASA and FEMA to streamline the communication to the public of the risk of an approaching asteroid, performing evacuations in areas of possible impact and to Other emergency scenarios with notice of a few days or months. ] Why this rare asteroid has been exiled & # 39; of our solar system "data-src-mini =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-small-169.jpg "data- src-xsmall = "// cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-medium-plus-169.jpg" data-src-small = " http://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-large-169.jpg "data-src-medium =" // cdn.cnn .com / cnnnext / dam / badets / 180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-exlarge-169.jpg "data-src-large =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/ badets / 180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-super-169.jpg "data-src-full16x9 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180509103230-asteroid-2004 -ew95-wonders-of-the-universe-full-169.jpg "data-src-mini1x1 =" // cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/badets/180509103230-asteroid-2004-ew95-wonders-of- the-universe-small-11.jpg "data-demand-load =" not-loaded "data-eq-pts =" mini: 0, xsmall: 221, small: 308, medium: 461, large: 781 "src = "dat a: image / gif; base64, R0lGODlhEAAJAJEAAAAAAP /////// wAAACH5BAEAAAIALAAAAAAQAAkAAAIKlI + py + 0Po5yUFQA7 "/>

Two telescopes continually scan the night sky to detect bright objects, which works well for large objects, but small objects can not be detected Koschny said that they were as close as the moon.

"If you only have two of these telescopes on the planet and each telescope takes three weeks to cover the entire sky, you must be really lucky that a small asteroid crosses your right field of vision when you are looking in the right direction, "he said. "That's why we are currently developing extremely large telescopes that will have the ability to sweep the entire sky in just 48 hours."

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We must also be able to find smaller near-Earth objects in final approach, days or weeks in advance, and be able to implement civil defense – be it an evacuation or shelter on the spot, said Mark Boslough, professor of earth and planet sciences at the University of New Mexico and president of the Asteroid Day Expert Group

events like Chelyabinsk, which involve small asteroids that explode in the air, it is to raise awareness about what not to do.

"We have to make sure that people understand whether there is a large, unannounced gust … go to the windows or look out for the bright flash in the sky," said Boslough. 2]

Amanda Barnett of CNN, Junko Ogura and Sheena McKenzie contributed to this report.

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