Is North Korea secretly pursuing its nuclear program?

North Korea continues its weapons program, despite promises of denuclearization, have questioned its sincerity in the peace talks.

Recent reports, based on leaked US intelligence, suggest that the country continues to improve its nuclear enrichment sites, among other activities.

What are the allegations?

Here is what was reported in the US media:

• The only official nuclear enrichment site of North Korea in Yongbyon is being modernized.
• The country intensifies its enrichment in two or more secret sites next to Yongbyon
• Pyongyang continues to produce more mobile launchers for its ballistic missiles.
• It has also extended the production of solid fuel engine missiles that are more mobile and easier to launch.

How reliable are these reports? These are "only" reports, but they are considered accurate by respected North Korean observers.

The information is based on multiple unidentified sources of the US intelligence community as well as on the 38 North study of satellite images of the Yongbyon site.

"None of these activities violates the agreements reached at the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and the North leader -Korean Kim Jong-un ", explains Vipin Narang, professor of political science and specialist in nuclear proliferation at MIT. .

In the closing statement of this summit, Pyongyang only agreed to work towards the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, which is considered a gradual process.

The details of the process remain to be determined by both parties.

"It would never be unilateral and immediate," says Narang. "So Kim Jong-un is free to continue exploiting existing sites."

Copyright of the image
KCNA

Still, reports that the North continues its nuclear activity are still seen as undermining the spirit of the summit and casting doubt on Pyongyang's sincerity to denuclearize.

"The North Korean nuclear program continues as planned by Kim Jong-un in his January speech, where he called for the continuation of the production of warheads and ballistic missiles," said Ankit Panda, editor chief of The Diplomat magazine.

What is the biggest news?

Solid fuel engines are more mobile and therefore a big step for Pyongyang. With mobile launchers, this means that North Korea can fire missiles from sites that can be quickly set up and not be detected in advance by South Korea or the United States.

secret enrichment sites. Until now, Pyongyang has never admitted that on a site of enrichment: Yongbyon.

It has long been suspected that there are more secret sites. An exclusive NBC report based on US intelligence sources has confirmed and named such a site and says that there is at least one secret enrichment site.

"You can imagine a North Korean strategy where – without a full disclosure of all their facilities – they can offer to close some of the known sites in order to obtain relief from the sanctions," says Narang. At the same time, they would go underground to secret sites.

Why is timing important?

The information from US intelligence sources is likely something they've been experiencing for some time. Mr Trump was probably informed of this information in view of the Singapore summit.

So why is it spreading in the media?

"The mere number of leaks on nuclear activity gives the impression of an authorized attempt to take this information out into the public sphere," says Abrahamian.

Experts believe that there are two reasons why the US intelligence community may have chosen to disclose its information at that time.

The first scenario would be to "counter the story from the White House that" the mission is accomplished "and that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat," says Narang.

He can therefore "force Trump a little so that he can not claim successes that have not yet been achieved," Mr. Abrahamian agrees. "This angered the foreign policy community and increased the pressure on Trump to not be tender on [North] Koreans."

The other scenario would be that the Trump administration actually coordinates the leverage effect. By revealing the extent of US information, Washington can put pressure on North Korea to admit its secret sites and operations.

"The badumption was still that we would let North Koreans disclose their own sites and verify that the US intelligence community is maintaining the list," says Panda. "Immediately you would have an idea of ​​whether North Koreans are negotiating in good faith."

"Now that we have published what we know about secret enrichment sites, we can see if North Koreans will choose to disclose"

Will the pressure work?

Rest the bigger question of whether, after the Singapore summit, this kind of pressure will really be able to steer Pyongyang towards the line.Reports on North Korea's continued nuclear and military efforts suggest that the country intends to maintain its nuclear and ballistic capabilities and even to continue to produce them

"It could be that Pyongyang calculates that maximum pressure campaign sanctions against North Korea. And the US really can not support it without China, "warns Mr. Narang

" Kim Jong-a could just say "I did what I have to do to break the maximum pressure campaign "- and I think he might be right. "