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On my trip from Indore to Bhopal, Roop Singh, the chauffeur of my hired Innova, gave me an introductory lesson in sociology and politics. What he said was so nuanced and so profound that it allowed me not only to understand the current elections in a new light, but also to understand why journalists in tour rarely read the polls correctly.
The general wisdom of political experts is that during all this time, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is on a sticky ticket because, among other things, the BJP's traditional support base for the upper castes is upset. It is said that they are angry at Chouhan for his alleged bias towards Dalits and CBOs. So I asked Roop the question. Pat came in answer: "You see, sir, the upper castes are like frogs on a taraju (scale). They usually jump from one ladder to the other just to disrupt the ladder. "
Image of Shivraj Singh Chouhan's file. PTI
He used a modified muhavra (adage) that spoke of the impossibility of weighing frogs on a scale and felt the need to explain it. "I do not know which caste you belong to," he said. "I am a Thakur and I suppose you are also a Thakur. But what is common between you and me? What he forgot to say, is, "So, why do you want me to vote like you?"
He was right. I am a Rajput. And there is nothing in common, even at a distance, between us. In a simple adage, he explained why urban India should not treat caste as a homogeneous group: a group that eats, lives, behaves and votes as one. In an urban environment, each with its own milieu, clbad divisions obscure and even nullify the similarities of castes. In his opinion, some of the rich high castes, guided by Frog Syndrome in the balance, tried to disrupt the political ladder for their own interests. "Contrast this with Muslim behavior and you will find them sitting on one of the scales," he added.
Roop is a supporter of the BJP. But what was important in its formulation was the underlying theme of the community division. Given the strong organizational structure of the BJP in the state, Hindutva seems to have penetrated deeply into the state's political body. It is not without reason that even the highest congressional leaders run from Datia Pitambara Peeth to the Mahakal Temple in Ujjain to seek God's blessings. Congressman Rahul Gandhi led the show to set up party references for the Hindu religion.
But this seems not only too little too late, but also an obsolete idea. In the past, Congress has long been considered more pro-Hindu than the Bharatiya Jana Sangh (BJS). This was all the more true when Dwarka Prasad Mishra was chief minister from 1963 to 1967. Even at the time of Indira Gandhi, the party was never seen with the less suspicion by the Hindus, although the RSS-BJS is strongly present in the state. . This situation was reversed only during the second pbadage of Digvijaya Singh (1998-2003) when he adopted a form of secularism that was conceived as a tactic to appease minorities. Congressional madness was aggravated by the fact that it was based on the principle that socially marginalized groups would not join the Hindutva group, which was widely perceived as a pro-superior caste.
pro-poor approach to the socially marginalized layers of the Congress. However, his overconfidence in this strategy proved counter-productive in 2003 when "bijli, sadak and paani (electricity, road and water)" became the dominant slogan for the population. Although the BJP projected Uma Bharti as the chief ministerial candidate, he did not insist on Hindutva. He promised basic amenities to attract voters. Since then, Congress has not been able to find its place on the electoral ground of the state.
And it is unlikely that Congress can do it this time either, despite favorable political circumstances. The reason is not far to look for. The state government has been excessively reckless in social spending to alleviate the distress of rural areas. Take for example 600 crore crore to buy onions to appease the plight of farmers. Or the introduction of the Bhavantar system whereby farmers receive directly the difference between the minimum support price (MSP) and the actual market price, whichever is higher. In many of these systems, the potential for irregularities is enormous. However, the spending has always benefited local traders and farmers and has greatly eased anger against the government.
At the same time, rapid urbanization and the expansion of the irrigation network created prosperity and elevated a considerable number of poor people above the distress threshold. . This improvement in the economic profile has brought about a radical change in the social complexion of the state. Even the upper castes who migrated to urban areas in search of a job are more aligned on division into clbades than allegiance to one caste. That's what Roop explained so nicely in his own way.
This does not mean that Shuhan will have a cake walk. He is certainly encumbered by indiscretions of his own government; in the Vyapam scam, and other scams in welfare spending, giving free rein to mining mafias and others. Add to that the unbridled pride of the local BJP executives and leaders. But what makes his task a little easier is the clear distinction between the BJP and Congress: while the former is doing everything he can to win, the second is waiting for a windfall.
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