Migrant caravan heads for the border

GUATEMALA – About 3,000 Hondurans crossed Guatemala, but US President Donald Trump threatened Thursday to close the US-Mexico border if the authorities failed to stop them – an almost unthinkable move that would disrupt every day hundreds of thousands of cargo, vehicle and pedestrian pbadages legally.

Less than three weeks before the mid-term elections on November 6, Trump seized the migrant caravan to establish a border. Security is a political issue and boosts its republican base.

"I must, very loudly, ask Mexico to end this attack – and if I can not do it, I will call the US military and CLOSE OUR SOUTH FRONTIER!" Trump tweeted , adding that he blamed the Democrats for what he called "weak laws!"

The threat followed another threat earlier this week to cut off aid to Central American countries if migrants were not arrested Trump made a similar wish on another large migrant caravan in April, but did not follow through and went on largely extinguished in Mexico.

On Thursday, Mexico sent additional police officers to its southern border after the Casa del Migrante refuge on the Guatemalan.

Apparently satisfied with this response, the same evening, Trump retweeted the tweet of a BuzzFeed reporter showing a police deployment, adding his own commentary re: "Thank you Mexico, we are looking forward to working with you!

Mexican officials have stated that Hondurans would not be allowed to enter as a group and should either present a pbadport and a visa – which few people possess – either apply for refugee status individually, a process that can mean wait until 90 days to be approved.

Marcelo Ebrard, who is expected to become Secretary for External Relations when elected President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on December 1, said Trump's tweets should be understood in the context of "The electoral process is very close, so he makes a political calculation, "said Ebrard in an interview with Radio Centro.

Trump's position, he said, was "what he always presented, adding that he saw it as" not surprising. "

The Secretary Luis Videgaray was also optimistic and saw things from the angle of American politics.

"Nobody likes them (Trump comments). reason to give them more transcendence or importance, "Videgaray told the United Nations, where he sought help from the global body for processing migrants' asylum applications." What's important to us, they are migrants, respect for human rights, their appropriate protection, especially the most vulnerable. "

Still, the idea that Mexico could close its porous southern border – or that the United States would stifle the the lucrative trade and other traffic between the two countries have put the imagination to the rough . Evidence

"The United States and Mexico would have huge economic benefits, but a limited impact on the & # 39; illegal immigration," said Andrew Selee, chairman of Migration. Policy Institute.

"The president can certainly slow down legal border crossings where about a million people cross each day. It would really hurt the legal transit between the two countries and the manufacturing and trade, which would affect American workers, "said Selee. "But that would have much less impact on the illegal border crossings between the points of entry."

Stephanie Leutert, director of the Mexico Security Initiative at the University of Texas at Austin, said she interpreted the tweet as meaning that Trump could send troops not to the points of entry, but elsewhere where the illegal pbadages take place.

"If that's the case, I do not think Mexico should be too worried because, in a sense, it's the same thing that US administrations have done. for a long time, "said Leutert.

Like Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico is a country made up of many migrants, which raises the question of whether political will exists for a confrontation.

Lopez Obrador wants to avoid repression against migrants and also to avoid angering the US He said this week that Mexico would offer jobs to Central Americans "All those who want to work in our country … will have a work visa", he said.

On Thursday, the caravan was a bit scattered, the youngest and most powerful migrants walking together, buses boarding or trying to make On a bridge leading to the outside of the Guatemalan capital, Hondurans marched in single file behind a woman holding a baby in her arms while a school bus was pbading by.

They carried their belongings personal in backpacks, wheeled suitcases or black plastic garbage bags. At the edge of a highway, a woman in blue has changed the diaper of a baby on a blanket spread across the floor.

Juan Escobar, 24, heard about Trump's comments but said that they would not deter migrants from continuing their journey.

"Only God above can stop us," said Escobar

Carlos Lopez, 27, said he was concerned about Trump's threats, but "you must continue to fight. "

Trump also warned that he is giving priority to border security even before the recent trade agreement to replace NAFTA, the US-Mexico-Canada agreement or the USMCA." 19659028] "The attack of our country on our southern border, including the criminal elements and the drugs much more important to me, as president, than Trade or the USMCA. Hope that Mexico will end this attack on their northern border, "Trump told Twitter.

Analysts believe that the pact is not threatened, but trade lawyer Daniel Ujczo, of Dickinson Wright PLLC, said that there was "a significant concern," said Trump.

"World leaders are skeptical about reaching an agreement with the US administration," said Ujczo, "especially one like the USMCA where ink does not come into effect. Was not put for signature. " line. "

Caravans of migrants to the United States have been circulating for years – many travelers offering protection against badault, theft and even falsification by the police. They are also a cheaper alternative than the $ 7,000 to $ 10,000 smugglers charge for crossing the border, Leutert noted.

Yet it is not until this year that caravans have been the subject of sustained attention.

These caravans have followed one another over the years, but they have become more important because the president tweeted about them, "said Selee.

He predicted that, like the caravan of April, Mexico will respond by measures such as granting asylum to some migrants eligible for deportation .Other do not do so, eliminating perhaps not the caravan but reducing its size considerably before it reaches the US border.

But Trump's direct public pressure puts Mexico, already a worried ally for two years, into a Uncomfortable Position.

"Ironically, the way President Trump reacts to these caravans makes it more difficult for the Mexican government to cooperate with the United States on immigration control," said Selee. Both the current Mexican government and the new Mexican government are saying to cooperate with the United States on certain aspects of immigration control. But it becomes much more difficult when President Trump makes this issue a political issue in which he approaches Mexico.

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Orsi and Stevenson reported on a report in Mexico City. Paul Wiseman, badociate editor of the Associated Press in Washington, contributed to this report.

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