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Nearly a month after baderting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, that Pakistan would try to resume its efforts to strengthen its ties with India after the 2019 elections, Prime Minister Imran Khan appears to To be seized from the "Kartarpur moment". According to Pakistan reports, the Foreign Ministry is preparing to invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the next SAARC summit in Islamabad, probably early next year. This decision comes a day after India railed against Pakistan for harboring terrorists responsible for the Mumbai bombings in 2008.
If Pakistan responds to this decision – and there is has enough reasons to be skeptical about it (remember the fiasco sworn by Imran Khan), it will be a masterstroke of Imran Khan – although that is not exactly enough to win the match .
Even after the embarrbadment of 2016, India and several other nations withdrew from the planned SAARC summit in Pakistan, citing the adverse regional security situation and for India, in particularly the question of cross-border terrorism, Pakistan has always wanted to push for the summit to be finally organized. However, the current pressure in favor of SAARC could well be a surprise for India as it places New Delhi in a difficult situation.
Image from the Imran Khan and Narendra Modi file. Twitter @MEAIndia
If India decides to decline the invitation, Islamabad will be pleased to release New Delhi from the responsibility of the latter 's refusal to engage and move the process forward. regional integration. This will be similar to the strategy adopted by India during all these years, in which Pakistan was forced to blame India for not accepting the will to dialogue and for holding SAARC hostage to bilateral relations. Remember that this time, the first move comes from Pakistan, unlike previous cases where India did it before and therefore had the moral merit of retracting, citing either adverse circumstances or terrorist violence.
If India decided to accept the invitation, then the government will have to present a solid justification on its territory to explain why it is willing to give Pakistan a second chance. Such a move carries risks for an election year in which the BJP would be more than willing to take a tough stance on its opponents, with its policy centered on jingoism and against "anti-national" elements. The risks of such an approach become even more apparent if one considers the possibility of anti-India terrorist groups launching an attempt to sabotage the dialogue.
So it will be a difficult choice for India and to place New Delhi in a tight stalemate. Instead, Imran Khan has an advantage. However, this benefit is only temporary as it will yield only limited dividends in Pakistan.
There are other members of SAARC – Afghanistan and Bhutan – who could, as last time, announce a boycott of the SAARC summit. Islamabad currently does not have the biggest relationship with Kabul. As a result, such an initiative on the part of Kabul or Thimphu will actually help India to avoid the ignominy of denying Pakistan's invitation.
Second, in the race for regional integration, the SAARC looks more like a dead horse among sprint contenders like BIMSTEC. and SCO. In fact, the strategy planned by India in recent years was to focus on regional integration without Pakistan and to deepen the SAARC. Emphasis was placed on the eastern flanks to take more voluntary neighbors and implement initiatives such as BIN and BIMSTEC, which fit perfectly with the Indian Act East policy. Therefore, Pakistan's strategy to reinvigorate SAARC is a good perspective, but lacks substance.
More importantly, at a time when Pakistan has become an international pariah state – with the exception of China and Saudi Arabia – with the reoriented US approach and the FATF gray list will require more than placing India in a place to restore Pakistan's credibility in South Asia and the world.
But at present, the ball is in the court of India and the world will watch closely what will be our response as and when. the invitation Pak comes. Maybe New Delhi could take a calculated risk and refuse the invitation. Or maybe he will go in the spirit of "Kartarpur moment" – and relevantly the comment of the Berlin Wall of Modi – and send the vice president or a senior minister, citing the busy schedule the Prime Minister during an election year.
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