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This dark and frightening season of the Oscars, which should seem far more cheering than the fear and panic prevailing in the streets worked . I do not know much, but I know that the intense pressure on filmmakers to be "pure" from the beginning or otherwise can not win a prize is something I would really like to see abandoned in the years to come up. No one should have vetting Green Book's filmmakers just to hurt the film's chances. This topic should never have been discussed because we wonder if the films themselves are worthy of a prize.
Now that the Academy has returned Roman Polanski for something that happened more than 40 years ago, it seems to have sent the message that artists' lives are up for grabs. Without distracting attention in a conversation about Polanski (oh my god, please, no), I will simply say that we are not supposed to be rewarding people for leading good lives. In fact, the best art often comes from people who have not done it. We do not live in a utopia where everything we talk about and celebrate is the good things we have done. We are all imperfect. And we are probably not good since birth. We are all bad and over time we learn to do things that do not harm others. If you prevent people from learning, from blossoming and changing, you will only be able to rely on an art that is worthless and the idea of humanity will be essentially worthless. A "Brave New World" indeed.
Nobody knows yet (though many experts will try to convince you that they know it) how the race for the best image will land and what will fundamentally change Hollywood's activities. There is a lot at stake for this change. Indeed, if a film of superhero Marvel won the best movie? Does this not put the golden seal of approval for the types of movies that now dominate the movie theaters? Although Black Panther is (and he is very good), he remains a franchise blockbuster – the exact type of thing that the Academy has unequivocally rejected in the past. By not choosing Black Panther, what would they like to keep in the movie? Are we going to a place where American films can not win because American films are strangled by capitalism? Is this the reason we are moving towards a year when foreign language films have two places in the best director's race and only two US-born directors have won in the category since 2009?
Can American films and filmmakers retain the idea of film as art? And if so, does Netflix offer them a safe pbadage to do it? In rewarding Netflix, does this mean that art is finally free of trade and that American filmmakers can again take bigger risks? Netflix exists separately from mental hysteria because it is very difficult to boycott a version of Netflix. For example, Twitter can not face off and destroy the opening weekend numbers, nor can it launch 200 rotten critics on Rotten Tomatoes. The best case for a Netflix victory is that it may be a "refuge" for the article
Preferential voting is a tricky thing. Which film arrives at number one? It seems that it will probably be Roma, who should also have no problem to collect the second and third votes (you will have to trust me, despite what the experts have said on the Web). This is the safest bet, even if you plan something that has never happened in 90 years of Oscar history.
Roma must write the story of 1) being the first foreign-language film to win both the Best Foreign Language Film Award and the Best Film Award. Picture, 2) being the first Netflix movie to win (it's the first to be nominated, so it does not matter), and 3) to be the first movie to win with only a DGA win and no appointment of all SAG in the era of the enlarged vote. Do not forget that The Shape of Water has also won the PGA in addition to the DGA. Roma does not have a wide guild support. He did not win the Eddie. He did not win the PGA. He only won the DGA. This could be enough. Heck, Moonlight won with only the WGA, but he had a strong acting performance behind him, ensuring that people watch the movie – and once they watched it, they were conquered.
The jury still has not determined whether or not people would watch Roma. To follow: it was presented in Venice and Telluride, which is the sure way to win the best film at the time of the enlarged ballot. Roma could win four: film, film in foreign language, director, best film. Maybe he can win the support actress. It's possible.
Green Book must overcome the controversies that have erupted around him, but have you seen his ticket office today? It is gaining money by word of mouth. It's good for Green Book. It's a nice movie for many. There is no name for best director AND no SAG set name. Green Book can win three: the actor in a supporting role, the original screenplay, the best film. Maybe it can also win editing. It's possible.
If BlacKkKlansman only gets WGA, he is more likely to participate in the race than any other movie in terms of key nominations. In fact, it is the champion of statistics for the moment, which gives the impression that the chances of winning three are very good: editing, adapted scenario, best film. If he wins the role of director, Spike Lee becomes the first African-American to win in the category in 91 years.
Black Panther has a SAG package, but does not win the PGA. Can he surprise in Best Picture? Of course as possible. Black Panther has no negative approach to the race, and all the positives (except the genre factor and the lack of nominations for writing, staging and actors). That would surely be part of the story and it would be a long wait, but honestly, it's the same for everyone.
Anything that wins the best picture will be really shocking.
Let us make our predictions as they are, and with a grain of salt.
Best Movie
Roma or Green Book or BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther
When I announce my predictions, I will probably use Green Book only because it won the prize. PGA. However, I plan to conduct a few polls to see if I can read better on the vote by consensus.
A star is born
The vice
The favorite
Bohemian Rhapsody
Best actor
1. Rummy Malek, Rhapsody of Bohemia
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. Willem Dafoe, at the door of the Eternity
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Woman
Although Olivia Colman won BAFTA, I think it's finally Glenn Close's year. The reason is that Glenn Close's unrivaled career in his debut, but also his work in The Wife is a real track, while Colman's is really a support piece. Emma Stone is the manager of The Favorite, and I think voters will know when they choose a winner. I could be wrong, but that's what I see.
2. Olivia Colman, The Favorite
3. Lady Gaga, a star is born
4. Melissa McCarthy, can you still forgive me?
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Paper
2. Richard E. Grant, can you still forgive me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKKKlansman
4. Sam Rockwell, Vice
5. Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
This is a difficult category. I will continue to predict Regina King because of its popularity in Hollywood. However, I see this as a category ready to be upset. And I agree with Scott Feinberg, who said everyone can win. I think Marina de Tavira has a really good move in this category, giving Roma another victory to add to her collection.
2. Tavira Marina, Rome
3. Amy Adams, Vice
4. Emma Stone, The Favorite
5. Rachel Weisz, The Favorite
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Rome
2. Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
3. Adam McKay, Vice
4. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favorite
Original Scenario
1. Green Paper, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
Despite the eruption of Twitter, I think that, according to the WGA's behavior, the Green Paper still has that. But if not, then he could go to one of these. Paul Schrader, in particular, could win, since he is Paul Schrader. But the favorite could win, the vice could win, even Roma could win the victory.
2. Paul Schrader, first reformed
3. Vice, Adam McKay
4. The favorite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
5. Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
Adapted scenario
1. BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
We all seem to agree that Spike Lee will finally win an Oscar in competition and that he will probably get a standing ovation. But if it's not him, Beale Street will win.
2. If Beale Street Could Speak – Barry Jenkins
3. A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
4. Can You Forgive Me – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
5. Buster Ballad Scruggs – Joel and Ethan Coen
Cinematography
1. Roma
3. The Cold War
3. The Favorite
4. Never Look Further
5. A Star Is Born
Edition
1. BlackKklansman
2. Green Book
3. Rhapsody of Bohemia
4. The Favorite
5. Vice
Staging
1. Black Panther
2. The Return of Mary Poppins
3. The Favorite
4. Roma
5. First Man
Sound Mix
1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. A Star is Born
4. Rhapsody of Bohemia
5. Roma
Sound Editing
1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Roma
Costume Design
1. Black Panther
2. The Favorite
3. Mary Queen of Scots
4. The Return of Mary Poppins
5. Buster Scruggs
Visual Effects
1. First Man
2. Avengers: War of Infinity
3. Player Ready 1
4. Solo: A Story of Star Wars
5. Christopher Robin
Original sheet music
1. Black Panther
2. The Return of Mary Poppins
3. If Beale Street Could Speak
4. BlacKkKlansman
5. Isle of Dogs
Original Song
1. Shallow – A Star Is Born
2. I Will Fight – RBG
3. Return Of Mary Poppins
4. When A Cowboy Swaps His Spurs Against Wings – Ballade Of Buster Scruggs
5. All Stars – Black Panther
Makeup and Hair
1. Vice
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Border
Animated Feature Film
1. Spider-Man: Towards the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
Feature Documentary
1. Minding the Gap
2. RBG
3. Free Solo
4. Hale County this morning, this evening
5. Fathers and Sons
Article in a Foreign Language [19659018] 1. Roma (Mexico)
2. Cold War (Poland)
3. Capernaum (Lebanon)
4. Robbers on display (Japan)
5. Never Look Away (Germany) [19659005] Short-acting action
1. Skin
2. Mother
3. Marguerite
4. Fawn
5. Detention
Short documentary
1. Period. End of the sentence.
2. Black sheep
3. End of part
4. Lifeboat
5. A night in the garden
Animated short film
1. Bao
2. Late Afternoon
3. Animal Behavior
4. A Small Step
5. Weekends
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