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It is surprising, to say the least, that Indian and Pakistani newspapers have published exactly the same article word for word, stating that the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs had invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the 19th SAARC Summit, to be held in Pakistan. . First and foremost, no one really needs to invite anyone else. If a SAARC summit is to take place, the Prime Minister will participate as a member if he so decides. An invitation is a mere formality and it is not the prerogative of the presidency to invite or de-invite anyone.
It goes without saying that the fundamental point is whether the SAARC summit will take place. The 19th summit, to be held in Pakistan in November 2016, was "postponed" after India, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh (not Sri Lanka and Maldives) informed the Nepal, who was then president, of their inability to participate. This was the terrible attack on Uri's army camp on September 18, 2016, which killed 17 members of the Indian army and was arguably one of the worst terrorist attacks in the world. these last years. India and others rightly thought that talking about cooperation between nations was rather a joke, while at least one of them was always supporting and training terrorists, in fact Occurrence Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).
Image of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's file. Reuters
It is not that all SAARC activities ended with this suspicion in Pakistan. As noted by the Department of External Affairs, the "postponement" was followed by several SAARC meetings, including the informal 2017 cabinet meeting, the meeting of ministers of the interior and various other meetings that went on until the last council meeting, on the sidelines of the 73rd UN General Assembly and the next meeting of chambers of commerce and industry to be held soon in Islamabad. Indeed, the current Secretary General of SAARC is a Pakistani diplomat.
The invitation is therefore the Islamabad test balloon to determine whether a meeting of the SAARC can take place. Normally, the meeting would have been scheduled for November. Even then, if it had decided to hold a summit, the month of December is still too early to organize such an event, especially since the polls for Bangladesh. India's own general elections are scheduled for mid-2019, and Modi should be on a schedule that looks promising in every way. Assuming that the current government can withdraw, it is surprising that Islamabad even wants a regional conference.
But, more importantly, nothing indicates that Pakistani terrorism has diminished. The attack by the Nirankari sect, the precise information on a JeM module targeting Delhi and the continued influx of terrorists into Kashmir show that the circumstances that led to the cancellation of the last summit are still valid. From this point of view, it makes no sense to hold a summit at this stage.
But there are some important issues here. Over time, SAARC has recruited as many observers as there are members. This includes the United States, Iran, the European Union, Mauritius, Japan, South Korea, Myanmar and China.
China is the main problem of this group. Beijing recently launched a China-South Asia Cooperation Forum last June, which included all SAARC members. India has chosen to send its consul general to Guangzhou and the event seemed, according to the media, to have been a great success, the Chinese fully appreciating the presence of India. Although the forum is starting to look more and more like SAARC, New Delhi does not seem to be the subject of a major objection with Chinese money,
There is a second problem. Although SAARC has been a persistent underachiever, it has been one of the pillars of the current government in a "neighborhood first" policy. Significant progress has been made, including the launch of the South Asian satellite, the SAARC Disaster Management Center in Gandhinagar, and significant encouragement from industry to expand its activities.
Unfortunately, there are also significant failures, such as the ambitious connectivity plan. this seemed to be on the right track after all members – except Pakistan – signed the motor vehicle agreement in 2015. However, Bhutan could not get the approval of the connectivity plan by Parliament, which has created a significant barrier.
Despite this, and with Bhutan's diplomatic relations blessing – the issue of connectivity has been resolutely put forward through other forums such as SASEC (Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation) South), which, as noted by the Asian Development Bank, has a portfolio of about $ 10 billion spread over 49 projects. A coastal transport agreement was signed via another forum. In short, all the goals that gave rise to SAARC are in full swing, but through other platforms. Clearly, SAARC is dead in the water, but the rest of the region is resorting to other means of cooperation. Many Indians believe that it is time to completely abandon the SAARC.
Pakistan knows it well. For Islamabad, SAARC has so far been an instrument for India to sack and ransom everyone. This was evident at the last meeting of the SAARC Foreign Ministers, when the Pakistani Foreign Minister chose to blame India for the lack of progress of this body. That's the norm, and it was planned. At this point, Pakistan is aware that it is being criticized for much of the world, led by the United States.
There is another problem. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan recently opened in India. Not being a "molded-in" politician, he frankly admitted that increasingly scarce resources had to be devoted to development and not to confrontation, which required a semblance of "no war".
In short, there is no money in the bank. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is certainly not about to distribute another tranche of badistance, without ensuring that it is not used for unnecessary expenses, such as actions against Indian windmills. It is in Pakistan's interest to pretend to put an end to hostilities with India. It's the sum. And it is now India's turn to decide whether or not to continue a forum that only highlights Pakistan's intransigence. Now, it's a thought.
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