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ISTANBUL: The badbadination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi could change the power dynamics in the Middle East by boosting Turkey's influence at the expense of Saudi Arabia as it fights over the leadership of the Islamic world, according to badysts.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, whom Saudi Arabia and its allies, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider to be a terrorist group.
Murder inside the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul by a team sent on Oct. 2, Riyadh has already seriously tarnished Saudi Arabia's reputation in the world.
But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, the de facto leader of the oil-rich Gulf nation, known for his MBS initials, which could definitively harm the country. influence of Riyadh. In the region.
After initially insisting that Khashoggi leave the consulate unscathed, and then claiming that he had died in a fight, the Saudi regime finally declared that he had been killed by an "operation" dishonest "and arrested 18 suspects, some of whom had links to the Crown Prince.
Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-old prince, who may even lead to death. The royal family dismisses him from his duties – although this seems unlikely.
"Khashoggi's murder is revealed to be a golden opportunity for President Erdogan to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and work to present Turkey as the new ruler of the Muslim world" Lina Khatib , director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House
"The Khashoggi crisis is a big geopolitical gamble for Turkey and, up to now, it seems to be playing wonderfully . But Turkey alone will not be able to press for the removal of the MBS. The ball is in the American camp, "she added.
An "Opportunity" for Erdogan
For Erdogan, Promoting the Muslim Brotherhood – that Saudi Arabia sought to marginalize in the Arab world and which Turkish President Abdel Fattah al- Sisi overthrew power and was brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013. This leader is at the heart of this struggle for power.
The Turkish ruler could also attempt to obtain concessions from Riyadh for his ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt since 2017.
" I think Erdogan sees an opportunity to push back a triple deal in the Middle East against his policy. This triple deal is composed of MBS, UAE's Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and Egypt's Sisi, "said Soner Cagaptay, director of Turkey's research program at the University of Sisi. Washington Institute.
"These three countries, the Arabs, oppose Erdogan's policy of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Now, Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because the MBS is vulnerable. But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Center for the Economy and Foreign Policy, said: "It remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to take advantage of this situation and make it a permanent advantage. The regional influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia. "
Nicholas Heras, an badyst at the Center for a New American Security, said the Khashoggi case was" the last chapter of the struggle in Turkey and Saudi Arabia for determine which country is the best "rule the Muslim world."
"Reduce the MBS to size"
"Erdogan seems to clearly believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as a means to reduce Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension. , Saudi Arabia, at the waist, "added Heras.
By not directly designating the crown prince as responsible for Khashoggi, Erdogan seeks to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar, of the French company based in Paris. Institute think tank for international and strategic affairs.
"Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken the MBS on the international stage. So he's running the dice nowadays trying to find a way to maximize his profits after this huge Saudi Saudite, "he said.
While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West – particularly the United States – is wary of the group and wants to focus any pressure on the Crown Prince so he puts an end to the war in Yemen and the lifting of the conflict.
"I am waiting for the blockade on Doha to end soon and for the Saudis to find a way to support the UN's efforts in Yemen," said Steven Cook, Foreign Minister Relations.
Bitar noted that the US administration was counting on Prince Mohammed's support for any possible peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in addition to containing Iran, long a Saudi enemy.
Washington could push the Crown Prince also toward "a rapprochement with Israel and the maintenance of a hawkish line towards Iran," Bitar added.
Posted in Dawn on November 4, 2018
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