The monsoon in India can increase the risk of hurricanes in the west – Here is what a study says

As the climate According to the study, the monsoon could have an increasing influence on the trajectories of the hurricanes of the Atlantic.

The strong monsoons of the Indian Ocean can cause east winds that push the hurricanes from the Atlantic Ocean to the west, thus increasing the chances of hitting the land. in the Americas, according to a study. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, revealed that Atlantic hurricanes are moving further west, to land, years of heavy summer rains in India. In years with lower rainfall, hurricanes tend to bend north earlier and extinguish in the North Atlantic Ocean. The researchers discovered that this newly discovered relationship could help scientists better predict the course of hurricanes, particularly in late summer, as in September, when the hurricane activity of the Atlantic reaches its climax.

"What surprises me is that the rains in India can bring about significant changes. to half-world Atlantic hurricanes, "said Patrick Kelly of the North West Pacific National Laboratory of the US Department of Energy. "This research is the first to establish the link between Atlantic hurricanes and the Indian monsoon," Kelly said. The Indian monsoon season has generally declined in September, but the weather forecast suggests that, under conditions of future warming, precipitation will increase, and that the monsoon season could end later in the year, announced researchers.

The monsoon could have an increasing influence on the trajectories of Atlantic hurricanes, according to the study. "We do not have the habit of making hurricane forecasts on a seasonal time scale," said Benjamin Kirtman, a professor at the University of Miami. "What is deeply exciting in this job is its potential to improve seasonal forecasts and predict hurricanes," Kirtman said.

Previous research has attributed changes in the direction of hurricanes at El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a periodic fluctuation of sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Scientists have traditionally relied on the ENSO cold phase at La Nina to predict the strength of an Atlantic hurricane season, but have difficulty predicting the course of each hurricane.

"In the seasonal forecast of hurricanes, our greatest predictor of what will happen has usually been La Nina," said Kirtman. "Unfortunately, seasonal forecasts based on La Nina have not been able to tell us much about the landing," he said. In the new study, Kelly and his colleagues wanted to discover how the Indian monsoon, a known source of climatic variability, was affecting hurricane tracks, as the Indian monsoon had not yet been investigated. in the context of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

simulations of hurricane trajectories with a model incorporating observed changes in monsoon intensity and showing that hurricanes were moving significantly westwards in response to strong monsoons. The strong monsoons influence the direction of hurricanes by enhancing the effects of the subtropical high North Atlantic, high atmospheric pressure center in the Atlantic Ocean. As the subtropical peak increases, stronger winds blow from the east and push the hurricanes to the west.

According to Kelly, La Nina and the Indian monsoon are correlated, but the strength of the monsoon influences the direction of hurricanes regardless of the fluctuations of La Nina, which are responsible for changes in the frequency of hurricanes. Fluctuations in La Nina could lead to more hurricanes in the Atlantic, but strong Indian monsoons direct them further west, making them more likely to land in the Americas, researchers said.