The new sanctions against Iran are looming, the United States is facing a world full of potential shortcomings

Unlike the overall support given to the Obama administration. sanctions and broad opposition to US policy, including from allies, should make the task much more difficult.

The Trump government has nevertheless started well: Iranian oil exports have dropped by more than a million barrels a day. since the United States launched their new campaign. This drop – more than a third of international sales – is double that recorded during the same period of the Obama era.

The Iranian economy, oil accounting for 80% of Iran's tax revenues and a quarter of the gross domestic product, suffers. The largest European companies have withdrawn. The Iranians, fearing an economic meltdown, rushed to trade their rials, plunging the value of the currency to record levels and causing a surge in consumer prices.

The International Monetary Fund predicted this year that the Iranian economy would grow by 4% in 2018. Now predicts a two-year recession, with a contraction of 3.6% next year.

"We witnessed a dramatic reduction in oil imports from major Iranian importers, a collapse of foreign direct investment, capital flight and the banks' decision to conduct a cost-benefit badysis. advantages. Brian Hook, head of the state's new Iran Action Group for Iran, said in an interview with the Iranian president that the sanctions were to come into effect on Monday.

The sanctions in force prohibit purchases of Iranian oil. The Ministry grants exemptions to its country of origin. Some of Iran's biggest buyers, including China, India and Turkey, want to obtain such exemptions, and US officials have announced they will accept certain requests to have enough time to find sources of energy. of substitution. Sanctions are also aimed at the country's banking sector, shipping and ports, although it is unclear to what extent the administration plans to close the accounts of financial institutions and companies that it has. power to blacklist.

The Trump administration seeks to replicate the success of sanctions taken by Obama, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal. After the conclusion of this agreement in May, the Trump team said that she wanted a more comprehensive deal with Iran preventing not only the development of nuclear weapons, but also banning long-range missiles and limiting Tehran's support for armed conflict in Syria, Lebanon in Yemen and Sudan. Iraq.

"History shows that this regime only changes behavior and comes to the bargaining table only under considerable pressure," Hook said. Truckers, opposed to the sharp rise in transportation costs, have recently joined the events that have unfolded in all countries and have largely focused on economic problems.

But the Iranian government is not completely isolated. Many of the world's largest economies, including transatlantic allies, have opposed the Trump government's decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions. Europe, like other governments, has sought to maintain ties with Iran, including to keep Tehran in the nuclear deal.

This global support in Tehran could give permission to flee.

"Dissatisfaction with the United States. sanctions program is a silent encouragement to circumvention, "said Alma Angotti, executive director of Navigant Consulting's Global Investigations Division.

Despite a commercial exodus, the European Union wants to protect the trade and financing of Iran sanctions imposed by Iran Companies from China, Russia and elsewhere have remained in Iran

Washington intends to reduce oil exports to zero in the coming months , threatening to impose sanctions on companies and countries that do not use the new sources negotiated by the administration Online in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and his country [19659003] As its declining oil sales decline, the Iranian government is striving to continue selling surreptitiously, using sophisticated techniques during the Obama lobby campaign, said officials said. US vessels: load cargoes to non-Iranian ships at sea and deactivate satellite beacons aboard the ship.

In recent months, the Tehran government has convened a special anti-sanctions group, with officials from the oil, intelligence, export and foreign affairs ministries. , as well as the Central Bank of Iran.

During the Obama era 's lobbying campaign, Tehran transferred tens of billions of dollars worth of oil, gold, and other companies and exchange offices around the world, including Turkey and Dubai, one of seven United States of America. the emirates. US officials said the infrastructure was being reactivated.

The Turkish state bank Halkbank – as well as several other Turkish banks under the control of US prosecutors – faces a multi-billion dollar fine for its role in these activities. 19659003] The bank did not return requests for comments. Turkish and US officials US embbadies have not responded to a request for comment.

A US security official familiar with the case said the Dubai government had rebadured the United States that it would no longer allow such activity in this manner.

now, it gives me particular concern about the real leaks, "said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin last month between two stops for a tour of the Middle East.

Much of his visit – which including stops in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait – is focused on the application of sanctions, but "as far as we can see, we will try to close the gaps," Mnuchin said.

MM Hook said the United States already knew about Iran's clandestine channels and would be "vigorous and relentless in the enforcement of the law."

-Asa Fitch in Dubai contributed to the writing of this article

Write to Ian Talley at the address [email protected]