The population of tomorrow will be bigger, heavier and eat more

The demand for food is increasing as people grow up. Feeding a population of 9 billion in 2050 will require much more food than previously calculated.

"It will be harder to feed 9 billion people in 2050 compared to today," says Gibran Vita, Ph.D. candidate for the Industrial Ecology Program at the Norwegian University Science and Technology

According to the WWF, the biggest environmental problem in the world is the destruction of wild fauna and flora. Much of the devastation is due to the demands of an ever-increasing human population. The second United Nations goal of sustainable development, Zero Hunger, is to address a growing global food demand.

The world's population could stabilize around 9 billion in the next few years, compared to just over 7.6%. billion now.

But an average person in the future will need more food than today. Changes in eating habits, attitudes to food waste, increases in body size and mbad, and demographic transitions are some of the reasons. and Vita badyzed the changes in the populations of 186 countries between 1975 and 2014. "We have studied the effects of two phenomena: the first is that people are on average larger and heavier, and the second is that the average population is aging, "said Vita

The first phenomenon contributes to the increase in food demand. The second counteracts the previous one.

In 2014, an average adult weighed 14% more, about 1.3% more, 6.2% more and needed 6.1% more than in 1975. Researchers expect this trend is maintained in most countries. 19659005] "An average adult in the world consumed 2,465 kilocalories a day in 1975. In 2014, an average adult consumed 2,615 kilocalories a day," says Vita.

Globally, human consumption increased 129% over this period. The population growth was responsible for 116%, while the increase in weight and size accounted for 15%. Older people need a little less food, but the aging of the population results in a lower consumption of 2%.

"The additional 13% meets the needs of 286 million people," says Vásquez.

Dietary needs of Indonesia and Scandinavia combined.

Major Differences

There are considerable variations between countries. The weight gain per person from 1975 to 2014 ranged from 6 to 33%, and the increase in energy needs from 0.9 to 16%.

A person from Tonga weighs an average of 93 kilos. An average Vietnamese weighs 52 kilos. This means that Tonga needs 800 kilocalories more per day, or about four bowls of oatmeal.

Some countries are changing rapidly. In St. Lucia, in the Caribbean, the average weight dropped from 62 kilograms in 1975 to 82 kilograms forty years later.

The smallest and highest variations were observed in Asia and Africa, reflecting the disparities between the countries of these continents. [19659005] Not calculated previously

"Previous studies have not taken into account the growing demand for larger people and aging societies to calculate the future food needs of a growing population, "said Vásquez.

Studies estimate that the dietary needs of an average adult remain constant over time and quite similar in all countries. But it is not like that.

"These badumptions may lead to errors in the badessment of how much food we will need to cope with future demand," Vásquez said.

Organization (FAO), leader in the fight for food security of all.

Vásquez and Vita say that we must take into account more than the number of people in a given region to understand the mechanisms underlying their consumption. This requires a multidisciplinary approach that takes into account both social and physiological factors.

The badysis of this study focused on bio-demography, a hybrid of biology and demography. The researchers adapted a model of dynamic systems often used in industrial ecology to study stocks and resource flows.

Explore Further:
World Food Day: the fish is gone, people are gone

More information:
Felipe Vásquez et al, Food security for an aging and heavier population, Sustainability (2018). DOI: 10.3390 / su10103683