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El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years, is badociated with higher global temperatures and drought.
Delhi: El Niño conditions are likely to start early The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in a statement released last Tuesday that next year will be a mild winter.
The UN specialized agency has stated that there is between 75% and 80% chance of developing the El Niño phenomenon by February. The WMO however pointed out that it should not be a major event.
El Niño is a recurring natural phenomenon: it occurs when the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean warms up, which has a great influence on the weather and the environment . weather patterns in many parts of the world.
The phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years is badociated with an increase in temperature and drought in the world. In India, it impedes the advance of the southwestern monsoon from June to September, affects rainfall and is badociated with droughts.
"It is too early to say whether the conditions (El Niño) will affect the southwestern monsoon. . But predictions indicate that it should weaken in the spring of February, well before the monsoon is triggered, so the impact on the next monsoon may not be as severe. But we might be seeing milder temperatures than usual in the winter, "said DS Pai, head of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in Pune.
According to the WMO, the risk of waterlogging is high. a full El Niño between December It is estimated that the years 2018 and February 2019 will reach about 75-80%, and about 60% if it continues until February-April 2019.
While the last predictions alleviate worries about the weakening of the monsoon next year due to El Nino, its impact winter temperatures could be much more obvious.
The last El nino of 2015 was one of the strongest ever recorded, resulting in catastrophic damage worldwide.This was also the hottest year ever recorded on Earth.
"The forecast for El Niño should not be as powerful as those 2015-16, related to droughts, floods and coral bleaching in different parts of the world. . Even in this case, it can still significantly affect precipitation and temperature regimes in many regions, with important consequences for the agriculture and food security sectors, and can be combined with climate change. long-term to increase the temperatures of 2019, "said Maxx Dilley, director of the WMO Climate Prediction and Adaptation Service
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