US elections: Democrats remain favored but Trump pushed back

While US elections will be held in less than two weeks, polls suggest that the anticipated "blue wave" of Democratic voters might not be as powerful as it seemed there are a few month.

Although broadly favored, the Democrats failed to create a decisive advantage over Donald Trump's Republicans, which means the president could escape the serious electoral series that the opposition had hoped for inflict.

Republicans control Washington's politics since the 2016 elections. In addition to the White House, they hold a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives and a narrow but important advantage in the Senate (51 versus 49).

This could change on November 6, when the 435 seats in the House and one-third of those in the Senate (35) will come into play, as will many positions at the state and local levels.

After a multitude of marches, protests and angry protests following Trump's surprise victory in the presidential election, this will be the first opportunity for angry American voters to stand in front of the polls in front of the House of Commons. policy and personal behavior of the billionaire of real estate.

But it will also be the first opportunity for those who are thrilled by the strength of the nation's economy and full employment, as well as by conservative Trump court appointments, to show their support for the president.

"Democrats seem less and less likely to win the Senate," said David Lublin, a government professor at the American University in Washington.

If Republicans retain control of the Senate, Trump's chances of removal are abruptly diminished – unless there is another major scandal – because senators have the last word in these rare efforts to overthrow a president.

Trump could also continue to put pressure on his candidates for the conservative judiciary, especially if there is another opening in the powerful Supreme Court, the final legal arbiter on the most important issues and the most sensitive of the country.

"Democrats have a lot of opportunities in the House, but not really in the Senate," said Kyle Kondik, editor of a non-partisan political news bulletin from the Center for Politics from the University of Virginia.

"The House and the Senate always seemed likely to produce somewhat different results, which complicates the story of the" blue wave. "

If the Democrats take control of the House, they will be able to engage in vigorous investigations into the policies and behavior of the Trump administration, and to prevent the adoption. Republican-backed laws, including a vote on the federal budget – essentially giving them the power to paralyze Washington.

With an avalanche of Democratic candidates at all levels, including a historic number of women, and millions of dollars flowing into their coffers, the Democrats have awakened their base. For months, the expectations of a high turnout have led many to believe that the party would at least resume its duties in the House.

This summer, Democrats have let themselves be dreamed that their charismatic young Senate candidate in Texas, Beto O. Rourke, could possibly overthrow Republican Ted Cruz from his Senate seat in this vast, deeply conservative state.

But polls have tightened in recent weeks, especially after the bitter fight in early October against the confirmation of Conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh in the United States Supreme Court.

Yet, history is on the side of the Democrats. The first mid-term election of a president's mandate traditionally favors the departure of the ruling party.

And, according to polls, Trump, despite the tumultuous support he receives at his frequent gatherings, is one of the least popular modern presidents to date.

In the House, Democrats must win 23 seats if they want to win back the majority, which badysts say is very likely. The FiveThirtyEight political website, widely respected for its statistical badyzes, gives Democrats five out of six chances to take back the House.

But thirty home races are still considered too close to allow reliable predictions.

The luck of the electoral calendar means that Democrats face a much greater challenge in the Senate: they must defend 26 of the 35 seats at stake, including several in states that voted for Trump in 2016.

FiveThirtyEight only gives Democrats a one in five chance to take over the Senate. Republicans could even increase their lead over there, pollsters say.

Although Democrats are supposed to garner votes – especially in residential suburbs where political centrists oppose many White House policies – they still face structural disadvantage.

Democrats are "highly concentrated in cities and urban areas … (while) Republicans are spread more evenly," Lublin said. And the closest Senate races take place in more rural states.

With high stakes, Trump organizes almost daily gatherings in key states.

Before the crowds seem galvanized, the president addresses key electoral issues: the threat of "radical democrats", the influx of immigrants who "infest our country" and the vigor of the dynamic economy US.

So, even if Trump's name does not appear on the November 6 ballots, there is no doubt that his shadow will weigh on the vote.

"On polling day, Americans will remember Kavanaugh," he said at a recent rally in Montana, pointing out that Republican voters had been mobilized through the judge's heated confirmation process, which included allegations of badual misconduct.

It is unclear whether this "Kavanaugh effect" will last until the elections – and it will be enough to defeat indignant Democratic voters that the charges against the judge have been dismissed without much investigation.