Why is Brexit only a side issue for an EU with problems on all sides | News from the world

T The coterie of diplomats and civil servants stationed in Brussels is closely linked to the negotiations on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. In private, they describe it as a "Brexit fatigue", the result of the development of a chaotic situation in Westminster for two years, and the fact that she worked during the summer in response to Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab's request for ongoing negotiations. These leaders of the 27 other EU Member States were chosen as the brightest and best for the existential crisis of the time, but the hard truth for these ambitious men and women is that the crisis in question is no longer Brexit.

"You go to capitals, you see it, because nobody talks about it anymore," said Fabian Zuleeg, director general of the leading European think-tank, the European Policy Center. On his return to Madrid after the recent summit of leaders in Brussels, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez summed up his remarks: "The British are thinking about the Brexit 24 hours a day and the Europeans are thinking about it for four minutes. While the chaotic withdrawal from the UK has become a monotonous process to manage, the EU is suffering heavy losses – crises that could actually make or break the block, as well as many diplomatic careers.

The List problem areas are currently in Italy. "Nothing and nobody, big or small letter will make us go back," said Friday in Rome the Deputy Prime Minister of the country, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League of Far right. "Italy will no longer be a slave and will no longer kneel."

Last month, the European Commission decided to reject the draft budget of the third largest econom ie the euro zone, unprecedented and high risk. designed to force the country's democratically elected government to control its spending.

With borrowing at 130% of gross domestic product, just behind Greece in the EU, Italy would pose a danger to financial stability in Europe. His government was asked to submit a revised financial plan by November 13, under penalty of huge fines.

The problem of Italy lies in the fact that it sums up perfectly the central and potentially fatal problem of the Member States of the European Union.

As a result of the global recession, Ireland, Greece and Portugal have been plunged into a serious crisis. They may have already changed their interest rates or devalued their currency to get back on their feet, but their governments were forced to watch their young people flee abroad.

Acting as eurozone countries, they had lost these crucial monetary levers. They were simply subjected to an austerity scheme by Brussels in exchange for loans and were ordered to put their house in order at a brutal cost.

And for all subsequent confessions that the EU itself had made a mistake in allowing such a divergence from the fortunes of the European economies in the first place, there have been few attempts since then to institutional structures that could now help to promote growth in Europe's poorest regions or to cope with future economic shocks.

Jean-Claude Juncker, Director General President of the European Commission, called for a finance and finance minister from the eurozone. There are repeated calls for the conclusion of the banking union, whereby deposits of savers, wherever held, would be guaranteed in times of crisis. However, while prevarication prevailed, the heritage divide between the north and the south of the eurozone was dug.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund, GDP per capita in Germany jumped 19% in 2016 compared to 2010 levels and 14% in 2010. The Netherlands and France

In the South where GDP per capita was already lower than the start, growth was much slower. In Italy, it only increased by 6%, in Portugal by 10% and 7% in Greece during the same period.

There is, in the meantime, a double-weighted stench in the application of the Growth and Stability Pact under which governments have been obliged, since 1997, to ensure budget deficits do not exceed 3% of gross domestic product and public debt is less than 60% of GDP.

Gaps and exceptions traditionally prevailed. "France is France," said Juncker in 2016 by turning a blind eye to the level of debt accumulated by the presidents of the Elysee Palace.

So it is no wonder that the new Italian coalition government of the populist Five Star movement and the right-wing league hesitated over the attempt to impose such a straitjacket on the economy. ;Italy.

Fabio Mbadimo Castaldo, five-star MEP and Vice-President of the European Parliament, told Observer : "After threatening to cut European funding, in 2016, the Commission pardoned the EU's financial crisis. Spain and Portugal for their public spending budget

"This should serve as a precedent for Italy. This is the way forward to solve problems with the EU. Some European commissioners should also realize that our government is currently the most appreciated of the major European countries. President Conté's approval rate is over 60% of the Italian population. It is clear that we can not say as much about [Emmanuel] Macron or [Angela] Merkel. "

Guntram Wolff, director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said it was a disturbing moment that indicated the potentially fatal contradiction at the heart of this imperfect union case. now a tension between fiscal sovereignty at the national level – the Italian parliament can and should decide its own fiscal policy – and the fact that this sovereign country has joined the monetary union and that there are conditions , including all the tax rules, and they all signed the treaties. "

The moment could not be worse: Europe goes to the polls next May to elect the members of the European Parliament Steve Bannon, l & # 39, former key strategist of the White House Donald Trump, is committed to using this moment to start a populist revolution with the support of Salvini.

Economic and Monetary Union is important you, but it goes further, "said Zuleeg about the conflict with Italy. "The problem is the fragmentation and rise of illiberal populist governments in some countries that use this process as a tool to prove to the electorate that they can deliver results and also challenge the EU.

"Perhaps from an economic point of view the acceptance that you let the markets do their thing. The market will punish Italy, it will punish any other country that follows this path. But the real challenge is to manage this situation politically. How are we going to manage the mess we are going to have after the elections to the European Parliament with a big block of anti-EU and anti-democracy parties, to put it bluntly? "

Poland and Hungary, led respectively by the parties of law and justice, the radical party of law and justice, and the Fidesz of Viktor Orbán, already derive their full value from the propaganda of the decision of the commission to initiate its most serious disciplinary action against them for gross violations of democratic norms.They know that they are immune from the ultimate punishment of losing their right to vote, because each country promised to veto the veto if it were submitted to the 28 Member States.

Europe claims leadership and perhaps when French President Macron – recently upset by a rate approval of 26% – is back from a break next week, which would have been necessary because of his exhaustion, he can do it.But it is not for nothing that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who announced last week its decision not to run again in 2021, following a series of electoral disasters, is likely to be on offer for a long time.

"Populists are already hoping to strengthen their membership in parliament next year and use their new influence to influence EU staffing and political outcomes over the next five years", said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe manager of Eurasia Group's Risk Advisory Group. "With Merkel now clearly in her zone of light, next year they will see a unique opportunity to radically change the rules of the game in Brussels."

With such a gloomy perspective, Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk might be able to avoid the eyes of the continent for a moment. But they probably will not want to look to America because suspending Europe is a trade war that could make the bloc much poorer.

Last July, Juncker had visited the US President at the White House and had returned after being badured. a temporary stay of a trade dispute starting with punitive tariffs on European steel and aluminum exports and threatening to hit the European car market, particularly that of l & # 39; Germany.

A precarious truce was concluded before the mid-term elections during which Juncker promised to have talked about the opening of Europe to US imports and made the absurd suggestion that the United EU buys more soybeans from US farmers in the Midwest, a key constituency of Trump. European farmers were already buying soybeans in the United States simply because they were the most competitive in the market as a result of the trade war between the United States and China. Maybe vanity suited both sides then. But the soybean offensive seems to be out of breath.

While seeking to avoid troubling Trump about trade, the EU has up to now opposed the White House as to the withdrawal of the United States from the so-called common policy. plan of action, under which economic sanctions against Iran were lifted in return for the regime limiting its nuclear aspirations.

The EU announced its intention to protect European companies from sanctions, which US Ambbadador Dennis Shea told the World Trade Organization monthly dispute settlement meeting for which Washington was "deeply disappointed". "We encourage European countries to carefully consider their wider economic, political and security interests," he warned.

The United States will reiterate this week all sanctions against Iran lifted by the Obama administration. 2015 Nuclear Agreement. Mid-term elections will be held Tuesday with Jeremy Shapiro, director of research to the European Council for External Relations, which predicts that a set of satisfactory results will "let go" Trump of the wisest heads of the US administration, while a bad overall could leave him "deregulated" .

Rosa Balfour, transatlantic researcher at the German Marshall Fund think tank of the United States, said that the fragility of the unity of the European Union in foreign policy, illustrated by the answers contradictory to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, could be revealed. "Germany has stopped arms sales, but not France," she said. "And with regard to Iran, we really have to see if the Member States will stick to what they said they would do.

" For me, Trade and Iran have always been very well combined. Two at the same time is not smart if you do not want Trump to get angry.

One of the founding fathers of the European Union, Jean Monnet, prophesied in 1978 that "Europe will be forged in crises"; he foresaw that the bloc would end up being "the sum of the solutions adopted for these crises".

At a summit to be held next spring in Sibiu, Transylvania, in central Romania, Juncker called his fellow leaders of the remaining 27 countries. Member States to renew "their commitment to an EU that tackles the issues that really matter to citizens".

Andrew Duff, former MEP, author, president of the federalist group Spinelli and an experienced observer of many European crises, is skeptical about a big leap forward. But he thinks that the leaders, upset by world events, should, despite their almost indifferent attitude towards the Brexit process, make think of the United Kingdom, the fifth largest economy in the world.

"You can blame the British, and everyone will do it, but the fact that the EU seems to have been so unstable, fragmented and disagree internally on a whole range of issues from immigration to Putin in Trump, it was not a glorious show, "says Duff," The British should not be blamed for not liking the EU in these circumstances. "

Duff adds that the EU needs to consider scenario "where the British change their minds." "And if you can find something that works well, that grows the economies of the member states and provides internal and external security, as we all want, the British will to change your mind, especially if the future is not as glorious as the Brexiters claim. "Brexit may not be in the spirit of" the Brexiters. " EU today, but building a Europe that the UK will be able to Would not want to join could be.

Nov. 5

Washington will reimpose any sanctions imposed on Iran lifted by the & # 39; 39, Obama administration following the Tehran nuclear deal signed in 2015.

Donald Trump, since the breakup of this agreement in May, promised to cut completely the revenues Iranian oil companies and EU companies that negotiate with oil exporters and oil tankers are subject to sanctions from the US government.

November, 13

The European Commission wants responses from Italy on the budget that it rejected because it constitutes a risk to the stability of the euro area. Brussels warned this week that it could begin an excessive deficit procedure against the populist government of Rome at any time because of its insistence on spending and high borrowing.

December 18 and 19

EU leaders will gather in Brussels for a summit where it is hoped that the Withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on future relations may be signed with the United Kingdom.

29th March

The United Kingdom must leave the European Union.

May 9 . ]

At a summit in Sibiu, Romania, the leaders of the remaining 27 member states will attempt to tackle the real reform needed, particularly in the euro area, in order to be able to to face future financial crises, to form a military union and to maintain the unity between East and West of Europe a union at a time of exacerbated tensions.

May 23 and 26

Europeans go to the polls to elect members of the European Parliament. . The French president, Emmanuel Macron, described the poll as an element opposing progressive and pro-European forces to those of the far right nationalist, eurosceptic and anti-immigration.