Will the most powerful guild want to get up? – Daily Awards

Yesterday, Roma won the BAFTA Award for Best Picture and Best Director, bringing to life the seductive old idea on which BAFTA has a decisive influence. or at least can predict the Oscars, even if they use different voting systems. More predictive, at least in the modern era of preferential balloting (2009 to date), are the big guilds: producers, directors, actors and writers. They are each made up of thousands of voters, but the closest to the Academy has to be the Producers Guild, which has also expanded its list to ten candidates (which I would like the Academy to come back) in 2009, and use the Preferential Voting System

In fact, the two groups that use the preferential ballot for the best picture are the AMPs and the Oscars. Their membership is about the same – about 7,000. The main difference is that the most important branch of the Academy is the acting branch. Producers do not have all these pesky players in their ranks and maybe that's why you do not see a 100% alignment.

The factors driving this year's race include a dirty campaign targeting Green Book, which entered the race as a favorite and as such had to be eliminated. Is it dead? Well, maybe he would have won BAFTA if he was not, but Peter Farrelly did not have a leadership nomination in the UK and he does not have an Oscar nomination. At present, it seems to be the Roma to lose. However, some of us are a bit skeptical about it. Maybe this hesitation will be ridiculous, maybe not. At present, I can pretty much guarantee that almost all experts are predicting Roma, a feeling now reinforced by BAFTA. But is it wise? I am not sure. The films that have won both BAFTA and Oscar in the last 10 years also won the least PGA:

2009: Hurt Locker – PGA / DGA / WGA / BAFTA / Oscar
2010: The King's Speech – PGA / DGA / SAG / BAFTA / Oscar
2011: The Artist – PGA / DGA / BAFTA / Oscar
2012: Argo – PGA / DGA / SAG / WGA / BAFTA / Oscar
2013: 12 years of slave – PGA / BAFTA / Oscar
2014: Birdman – PGA / DGA / SAG / Oscar
2015: Featured – SAG / WGA / Oscar
2016: Moonlight – WGA / Oscar
2017: Shape of Water – PGA / DGA / Oscar

So you can see how BAFTA has somewhat decreased in recent years. What could be the reason for this? And for that matter, why did the image and the director start to separate after Argo? To see Argo win without even a nomination for Ben Affleck may have prompted voters to watch the two trophies separately. When Ang Lee won for Life of Pi, he seemed to set in motion the idea that the best director is more aligned with the visual creativity of the film while Best Picture, or his producer, is more aligned with the screenplay.

because individual films often earn so few oscars nowadays that scans – where a movie wins everything – do not seem to happen anymore. This makes sense: with more nominees in the Best Film category, there are more films that, theoretically, should not go home empty-handed. Spread the wealth everywhere. You get an Oscar, you get an Oscar, everyone gets an Oscar. However, there have been films that have won many Oscars, like Gravity with its seven wins – they simply have not won the Best Film Award. The average number of wins for the best picture is now three Oscars. Spotlight won with only two points.

This year, the big guilds will be put to the test, to determine which has the greatest influence. At this moment, the producers guild is ahead of a hair. Since 2009, PGA has reigned by matching seven times the best film. The DGA is right behind with six. SAG is lagging behind with 4.

Judging by recent history, it would be a mistake to take sides for BAFTA on the PGA, with the exception of Deus ex Machina of the "new voters". "New international voters will finally choose a foreign language film for Best Picture, like BAFTA by awarding it both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture. But see, the Academy I know does not do it. They have separate categories for a reason. This is why no film has won in both categories in the 71 years of existence of distinct categories of feature films. Never. Not in animation, nor in documentary, nor in a foreign language.

The statistics girl myself and the type of statistics in our stats guy, Marshall Flores, remain skeptical that Roma is a fool. The only problem with this thinking is simply this: if it's not Roma, then what? This is the most difficult question to answer. Which means that, paradoxically, it could be the simplest question to answer. It's Roma. And that's all, Occam's razor and all the rest.

I would like to add a caveat about this type of thinking based on what we know so far. The history of BAFTA, the preferential vote (why did not the Roma win the PGA?) And the impact of Black Panther on the race for the best film, for example. How many voters will opt for the film "popular" even without the nominations of directors, screenwriters and actors? Believe it or not, the Black Panther's victory is shorter than that of Roma alone. This is because NO FILM has already won the Best Film Award while remaining in the foreign language category, while Wings and the Grand Hotel have managed to win the Best Film Award despite the fact that the film has won the Best Film Award while remaining in the Foreign Language category. absence of these three critical appointments.

Throw the dice, Oscarwatchers, it's free for all. We hope to get more poll results if we can find a reliable sample to see the ranking of these films. What we know for sure is that the only preferential voting test we have seen so far has not resulted in a Roma victory. Will the actors make the difference? Are new members? Perhaps. We will have to wait.