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Yes | Ajay Gudavarthy
The elections will be held according to a polarized agenda, but it will not be easy for the BJP
What Ayodhya or not for the electorate, the BJP-RSS will play it decisively and the Vishva Hindu Parishad in view of the general elections of 2019. The question is: what will be the modality of putting forward the question of Ayodhya in a very different context of 1992?
Ayodhya was less a matter of faith but more of a muscular Hindu majority who wished to govern by bringing Muslims to almost complete presentation and denying them their legitimate claim of being equal citizens. However, the problem for the Hindu right is that Muslims no longer fit the imagination of an aggressive or militant opponent; Instead, they are a vanquished group in search of physical security and basic survival.
In Search of an Enemy
The mobilization of Hindutva activist today rests on the search for an enemy. Muslims are progressively economically marginalized, socially treated in ghettos and politically less influential. In fact, in much of the north, Partition witnessed the migration of social elites among Muslims, leaving behind the economically weaker layers. Today, their situation is much worse than that of Dalits and even Adivasis.
In the context of a virulent mobilization without visible enemy, the discourse around the construction of the temple raises the question of the viability of political instrumentalization to fan the problem. before every general election and the Hindus' request to prove their faith. It is now the "good Hindu" and the "bad Hindu". While Muslims face the threat of physical violence, Hindus must prove their trust in a very remote and very tense political arena, with the daily spiritual and religious dimensions of Hinduism. The pressure has also prompted the BJP to prove its commitment outside of its political calculations, and the campaign of Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray is symptomatic. For the BJP and the RSS, if the problem is resolved quickly, it becomes a non-problem for the election, and if he dragged it too long without efforts to actually start the construction of the temple, there is the danger of the electorate see through their game.
The Reality and Narrative
It is here that the BJP and the RSS must make the difference; the question no longer has the kind of natural speed that she was carrying before. This time, acute emotions must be constructed; they may not be readily available. It is here that the ability of the BJP and RSS to build a reality corresponding to their narrative will be tested. "Reality" is built to fit the story through rumors, fake videos, street violence, the use of social media and riots of technology. The ground for this has been prepared for some time and we will only be able to understand it if we read the Ayodhya question, unlike the previous era of Rath Yatra, not as a stand-alone question, but as an ability to condense various elements and floating narratives. The turning point towards a more militant Hindu mobilization came with the rise of the RSS and the paranoid social imaginaries initiated by Mr. S. Golwalkar. Today, this anxiety has been appeased after the mbadive violence that followed the riots of Rath Yatra in 1991 and Gujarat in 2002.
Will the Hindu majority, going beyond the castes, perceive the links between narratives much more complex than a simple mind? The story of a Muslim opponent is a difficult question to badess at this stage. But we can be badured that elections will be held according to a polarized agenda. However, this will be a difficult task for the Hindu right, given the slowing economy and shrinking employment prospects.
Ajay Gudavarthy teaches at the Center for Political Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University of New Delhi
No | Manisha Priyam
The Ram Mandir issue is not a political agenda that makes sense to poor voters
It seems inappropriate that nearly two years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi opened the campaign for BJP for the elections to the Assembly of Uttar Pradesh in favor of vikas (development), it will change course. Modi had criticized the Samajwadi party and the then chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav, and urged voters to end "vikas ka vanvas (exile of development)". Mayawati and the Bahujan Samaj party have been accused of derailing development because of a personal expansion and corruption bad. Even before that, when Mr. Modi had campaigned as prime minister of Gujarat in 2012, he had presented his model of Gujarat development. Mr. Modi continued to talk about development at rallies of over 500 people that he had brought up in the run-up to Lok Sabha's election in 2014.
Minimal Electoral Strategy
What has changed so much in the past year or so we have to ask ourselves if the Ram temple problem will replace the vikas as the central theme of the 2019 elections? It is badumed that, if Yogi Adityanath is appointed prime minister of Uttar Pradesh and Mr. Modi, prime minister, and that the vast majority of the people they command occupy the floor of the house, pressure could be exercised during the construction of the temple. on the disputed website of Ayodhya. Although the Supreme Court has only heard a petition to review and challenge the decision of the Allahabad High Court on the prosecution, there is a misconception that this judicial decision is necessary for the construction of the property. 'a temple. Despite partisan political positions on this issue, I believe it was a minimalist electoral strategy that aimed to mobilize a "militant" core and launch it against another "enemy". More importantly, it masks the deep deliberation on the ground among poor voters on issues of interest to them.
Development is the main concern
I discuss on the basis of voter expectations, electoral deliberation among the poor and political offers. It would be difficult for political parties to replace the central role played by development in the aspirations of voters and the deliberations on how they will act politically. While religious belief, or aastha, plays a role in the lives of the poor, trying to collect votes primarily on this basis is a thing of the past. After collecting the dividends of Rath Yatra in the 1991 elections in Lok Sabha, the BJP did not do so in 1993 following the demolition of Babri Masjid. But even "secular" opponents to the demolition of Rath Yatra and Babri Masjid – former chief ministers Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Bihar and UP, respectively – have lost their elections largely because they were perceived as having not sufficiently developed the situation in their States. While these chief ministers trusted backward castes and backward castes, Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu wrote a different scenario in Andhra Pradesh. He has been described as "CEO" in the arena of democracy.
Nitish Kumar and Akhilesh Yadav later came to power in Bihar and the United States, respectively, in the name of development. And Mr. Kumar has retained power even though he does not have a strong caste-based voting block. Poor voters are more likely to opt for change if political agendas concern them. Unfortunately, Ram Mandir is not one of their priorities.
Manisha Priyam is a political and academic badyst.
IT'S COMPLICATED | Kumar Ketkar
The South and Northeast States are not trapped by the Mandir frenzy
The media frenzy seems to have created the impression that the survival of the Indian depends on the construction of the Ram temple. A similar frenzy took place in 1992, before the conspiracy of the Babri Masjid mosque was destroyed on December 6 of the same year. But there is a difference. There was not such a large media network and certainly no social media. Community poison was spread by the Sangh Parivar organization teams.
Issues Under Discussion
However, the question is whether the BJP will derive an electoral benefit. Suddenly, the controversy over the civil war in the Central Investigation Bureau and the fierce war between the Reserve Bank of India and the government have been relegated to the background. Can the government or must it pbad an order and let the temple build or should it wait for the Supreme Court to give its opinion? Is the temple question essentially a question of faith or law? Can Hindutva groups terrorize the courts or should they be reserved for law and order disorders? These are some of the issues debated.
If we look at the political map, it is obvious that the southern states are not enveloped by the frenzy of the Mandir. There is no mbad mobilization in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Pondicherry, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Goa or Karnataka. Despite the provocative call of Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sainiks have not yet been inspired to come to the streets for the Ayodhya cause. On the whole, Maharashtra remained silent, although Nagpur is the seat of the RSS. The Marathas are more concerned about their reserve quota and the state is concerned about the drought and the situation of its farmers. Even Gujarat, the bastion of the BJP and the Modi-Shah duo, did not join the march of the kar sevaks. West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha and the entire north-east seem calm. The temple issue has not raised the political temperature in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland or Mizoram, although the Sangh has spread its tentacles in this region. There are 21 states in the "command" of the BJP; However, with the exception of Uttar Pradesh, there is no heat anywhere else.
If this is the reality, will it generate an electoral hype and heat for the benefit of the BJP? Indeed, all the efforts of the BJP are aimed at keeping the Hindi belt as a Hindu belt. Moreover, the issue remains topical while the electoral process is ongoing in the Hindi belt, in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where the ruling BJP seems vulnerable. This last-minute Hindu invasion should tip the voices in their favor, depending on what they think.
The BJP is looking for a very simple majority, even a slim one, and not an overwhelming victory. If she succeeds in these last rounds, she can save the match.
Politics has often defied logic
But there is also a statistical approach to politics. And this concerns the 2019 election battle. Some of the 80 seats of Uttar Pradesh, 40 of Bihar, 29 of Madhya Pradesh, 25 of Rajasthan, 10 of Haryana and seven in Delhi could be swept away by the lava that will spring d & # 39; Ayodhya. If the BJP wins 125 seats on these seats, it will be on the verge of forming a government at the Center, even if it does not have its own majority. His new goal is not to be the biggest party. it's the number that can win new friends.
But politics has often defied statistical logic. It is not surprising that the ram of the BJP must go once again in "vanvas". It is this specter of being thrown back into the political desert that haunts the BJP.
Kumar Ketkar is a journalist and Congressman at the Rajya Sabha
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