Low contribution to exports, economic quarter III-2018 between 5.1% and 5.2%

KONTAN.CO.ID – JAKARTA. Latif Adam, the leading research center in economic research of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), predicts that economic growth for the third quarter of 2002 will be in the range of 5.1% to 5.2 %.

"Because it's actually the weak point in the economic growth of exports and imports, and for the other determinants there is a slight improvement, so economic growth in the third quarter of 2018 will be of the order of 5.1% to 5.2% ", Latif said Saturday (3/11)

Latif estimated that the trend had always fluctuated due to the trend up to the third quarter of 2018, as exports of imports experienced a decrease in their contribution.

"It may be that the contribution of exports and imports in the third quarter to economic growth was lower than in the previous quarter," he added.

Latif also added that, to offset the decline in the contribution of exports, imports can be treated with state expenditures or the state budget (APBN).

Latif estimated that the state budget could mitigate the decline in exports and skyrocketing imports.

The second thing that could help mitigate the weakness of exports and imports in terms of economic growth is investment. "Although the World Bank lowered Indonesia's investment rating yesterday, however, in my view, this investment can still be considered stable," he said.

While, for household consumption in the third quarter of 2018, the survey appeared high, according to a survey of consumer confidence levels. However, in the third quarter of 2018, according to Latif, it would not be as good as in the second quarter. Indeed, the lack of encouragement that can lead consumers to increase their consumption.

"In the third quarter of 2002, there were a lot of problems, starting with the rise in fuel prices relative to prices in other markets.In the second quarter, seasonal factors, including the Eid holiday and the new school year ", have also contributed to this situation," said Latif.

Thus, according to Latif in the third quarter of 2018, almost all components of economic growth have improved, with the exception of exports, imports and household consumption.

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