Observer: Ridwan Kamil not sure to win



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Ridwan Kamil thanks all the badistants.

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The results of a swift account elections regional leader (elections) 2018 in West Java won by the couple Ridwan Kamil-UU Ruzhanul Ulum. However, according to political observers from the Jakarta State University (UNJ) Ubedilah Badrun, the victory is not necessarily the serial number of the couple.

"Ridwan Kamil does not necessarily win," Ubedilah said in a press release on Thursday (28/6).

Ubedlah recommends to all candidates and supporters who are declared winners on the basis of the results quick account not to overdo it. Generalized victory percentage data are not the result of KPU's decision, but new quick account.

"Quick account these are temporary and relative data (may change) because they come from the sample data, "he said.

For example, in West Java, the polling institute sampled about 600 polling station (TPS) samples from all polling stations 74,954 in West Java. If the base of sample determination is TPS then the sample 600 of 74 954 TPS margin of errorit could reach four percent.

"This means that the possibility of a manual account change could happen, not to mention the result quick account Ridwan Kamil is only two to three percent compared to Sudrajat-Ahmad Syaikhu (32 percent: 29.5 percent), "Ubedilah said.

However, he added, if margin of erosionit can be one percent, which means the result quick account can approach the results of the KPU manual account. Fast accounts, he explained, could be close to actual results if his sampling technique adhered firmly to the principles of scientific methodology.

Read also Sudrajat: result of the non-final quick account.

Among the correct sampling techniques, given the characteristics of the diversity of voters in the GST, the number of polling stations taken as samples that have an impact on the low margin of error.

"If the badumptions of all the survey institutions really support the principles of scientific methodology, then the results can be quickly calculated near the final image of the voice acquisition results from manual calculations to do KPU each region, "he said.

Read also, Win Fast Count version, Ridwan Kamil Sujud Syukur.

Conversely, if there is an error, especially when determining TPS sampling, the result of Pilkada may be missed. Therefore, he suggested addressing the results quick account calmly and rationally, so as not to cause problems related to public emotions or support.

"For the winner quick account no need to overdo it because it's not an official KPU announcement, "he said.

Meanwhile, Ridwan Kamil immediately makes prostrations of recognition, knowing that the results count quickly. In his speech to Bandung, Ridwan Kamil expressed his gratitude to all those who helped him during the electoral process in West Java.

The man who is familiarly called Emil said, based on the results of the fast calculation of incoming data has reached 80 percent. "With this pair of results, Rindu wins, but it's still an interim result," Emil said.

Emil also apologized to all parties if there is an error in the Jabar elections. Quick account done

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