The trade war between the United States and China continues and the economy of Rotary represents only 5% in 2019

Jakarta – The trade war of the United States and China will continue to impact the economies of developing countries, including Indonesia. The Institute for Economic and Financial Development (INDEF) predicts that national economic growth will reach the level of 5% in 2019.

"The projection of our marko, INDEF last year for 2018, our economic growth is 5.1 %.In fact, 5.2% have not been achieved.We are planning 5% in 2019" said Eko Listiyanto, director of the INDEF program at the Bidakara Hotel, Jakarta, Wednesday (28/11 / 2018).

The impact on developing countries will be a decline in export performance, especially for commodities that are being reduced by China and the United States. Items normally shipped by China to the United States and vice versa are reduced because of higher tariffs. As a result, demand for raw materials supplied by Indonesia will also decrease and will impact the national economy.Eko explained that the expected economic growth rate at the 5% level was also due to the little potential that the US-China trade war could exploit, namely attracting investment from entrepreneurs who would They were not at home, especially in China.
The businessman calculated that he would move his factory to Asian developing countries because he would not be exposed to the tariff war if he was sent to the United States and China.

While the rupiah exchange rate is projected at the level of 15 250 rupees to one US dollar. Indeed, the Federal Reserve or the US Central Bank still applies its monetary normalization policy.

In addition, for inflation, INDEF predicts the same as APBN, ie 3.5%.

"Inflation remains low but there is a volatile food problem, the annual trend is down, but volatile food and administered prices do not increase because it only wants the presidential election, if the presidential election is over, there could be a surprise after the end of the pilgrims, "he explained.

Eko added that the price of oil (PCI) was estimated at 75 USD per barrel. While some badumptions of economic development such as unemployment, they are still at the level of 5.3%. For poverty, it will return to 10% to 10%.

"Because our economic growth is increasingly impervious to the absorption of jobs and poverty," he said. (hek / hns)