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Trump should sit down with other candidates before deciding who to support, although advisers say Gray and Smith have become the two clear leaders. To prevent Cheney from winning a re-appointment with only a plurality of votes, they also say, Trump must back the strongest candidate, then oust the others in the crowded field.
The behind-the-scenes discussions highlight the important issues facing Trump, who has made overthrowing Cheney a priority since she criticized him for inciting the Jan.6 Capitol riot and voted to remove him from office. The outcome of the contest – and Trump’s ability to shape it – will be a key measure of Trump’s post-presidential dominance over the Republican Party.
“The Wyoming run is the top priority of the cycle. It’s a staple for President Trump. I hope he fully understands this because it’s an undeniable fact, ”said Christopher Ekström, a major GOP donor overseeing a super PAC who should be involved in the effort to topple Cheney.
Shortly after the January impeachment vote, the former president’s advisers began reaching out to state Republican Party Chairman Frank Eathorne and state lawmakers to take their temperature on the political landscape. of Wyoming. They were also in contact with the Anti-Tax Club for Growth, a pro-Trump group that opposes Cheney.
Trump allies, including Donald Trump, Jr. and Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, have visited the state to campaign against Cheney. Former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows also traveled to Wyoming to get information on the ground and meet with potential key challengers.
The Trump team has probed a potential first challenger in state treasurer Curt Meier. But Meier said he was not interested and instead recommended Gray, a state lawmaker and former radio show host who strongly supports the former president. In late January, Trump pollster John McLaughlin commissioned a poll of 500 people through the former president’s Political Action Committee, which asked respondents for their opinion of Gray and whether they would support him or Cheney in a primary match. The poll also tested the strength of another candidate, Senator Anthony Bouchard.
Other Trump advisers also weighed in on how to design the 53-question survey. The race has been a topic of conversation on regular Monday conference calls where Trump’s lieutenants discuss different campaigns and the overall political landscape.
Trump has been in contact with Club for Growth chairman David McIntosh, who briefed Trump on his organization’s talks with the candidates and urged him not to approve until he is sure he has found the right person. The Club – which polled the race earlier in May and started work on another poll this week – are expected to spend millions of dollars on the contest.
“Trump’s analysis is correct, we have to come down to a two-man race, and at this point the challenger is likely to win, based on the polls we’ve done,” McIntosh said in an interview.
McIntosh’s organization, which has sent staff to Wyoming and this week began running TV commercials hammering out Cheney, has yet to approve the race. McIntosh said that “the ideal is that Trump and the Club are aligned” to support a challenger.
Donald Trump, Jr. was particularly interested in the primary. Young Trump, an avid outdoorsman, spent time in the state and was friends with Foster Friess, a Wyoming-based GOP megadonator, who died in May.
Ultimately, however, Trump’s advisers say it will be the former president who makes the last call to who gets the approval.
Cheney – who once again infuriated Trump supporters this week by opposing House GOP efforts to install a pair of Trump loyalists on the committee investigating the Jan.6 attack on Capitol Hill – ignored the involvement of the former president.
“If they think they’re going to go into Wyoming and argue that the people of Wyoming should vote for someone who is loyal to Donald Trump rather than someone who is loyal to the Constitution, I welcome of this debate, “Cheney said at a press conference. May appearance on NBC’s “Today Show”.
Trump supporters say they are convinced Cheney can be beaten, noting that polls show her deeply vulnerable in a state Trump has won by more than 40 percentage points. The January poll by Trump’s Political Committee showed that only 28% expressed a favorable opinion of Cheney; the figure was only slightly better – 29% – in an April poll by the Club for Growth. Cheney’s campaign has yet to release its own investigative results.
But defeating Cheney won’t necessarily be easy. The MP has accumulated more than $ 2.8 million, more than eight times more than Gray, the candidate with the second-largest campaign count. Cheney is also expected to have the backing of a super PAC led by allies of Illinois Representative Adam Kinzinger, another supporter of Republican impeachment.
Republicans also note that Cheney’s father, former Wyoming vice president and former congressman Dick Cheney remains highly regarded in the state.
But if Cheney survives the August 2022 primary, say those involved in the race, it would likely be because she profited from a split vote. The congressman has already attracted more than a half-dozen challengers, and Wyoming Republicans report that it’s possible more may still join them.
Trump’s allies recognize that in addition to supporting one candidate, he may have to urge others to quit the race. It’s a role Trump has played before: In 2018, he persuaded Nevada Republican Danny Tarkanian, who was making a main challenge to then-senator Dean Heller, to run for a seat in the seat instead. Room.
“The key will be for the America First constituency to galvanize behind a candidate. If opposed by multiple Trump candidates, they’ll just split the vote, “leaving Cheney” to win against a divided field, “said Roger Stone, a former Trump political adviser.
Stressing the urgency, Donald Trump, Jr. earlier this year gave his support behind legislation that would amend Wyoming election law to make it harder for Cheney to win against a split field. The proposal would have implemented a run-off if no leading candidate had secured a majority of support in the first ballot, forcing Cheney to go head-to-head against a Trump ally.
The lawmaker, however, rejected the bill in March. Since then, some state lawmakers have pursued other electoral law changes that would hamper Cheney’s prospects.
One of the biggest worries of Trump supporters is that they don’t have a formidable enough challenger for the job. One of the first entrants, Bouchard, saw his stock plummet after admitting to making a 14-year-old girl pregnant at the age of 18. Bouchard revealed to Fox News on Tuesday that he was not among the candidates Trump would meet in Bedminster next time. the week. And no statewide official stepped in, despite hopes that Meier or Secretary of State Ed Buchanan would come forward.
Smith touts his Wyoming roots, among other strengths, while Gray comes across as the more conservative choice. But their personal loyalty to Trump, rather than more traditional campaign arguments, may prove more crucial in the race for his approval.
Smith ran ads praising the ex-president and even promoted his attendance at Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan.6. (Smith noted, however, that he had not entered the Capitol or participated in the assault.) Gray also broadcasts a spot featuring Trump and touts a recent trip he took to Arizona to show his support for a revision of the 2020 elections there.
“I visited Maricopa County to defend the very important audit,” Gray said in an interview, noting that he was “the only candidate to have done this.”
While neither recognize an upcoming meeting with Trump, they have hinted that they would each be willing to quit the race if it wasn’t the choice of the former president.
“We have to be prepared to put the country above ourselves,” Smith said. “There’s no way I’m the reason Cheney is going back to Congress.”
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