Iranian scientist murdered for making Biden’s job harder, experts say

• The assassination of a prominent Iranian nuclear scientist was intended to derail President-elect Joe Biden’s plans to revert to the 2015 nuclear deal, according to experts and former US diplomats.
• A senior Middle East expert told Insider that the assassination “fits with Israel’s long-standing policy of targeting Iranian nuclear scientists.”
• A former US diplomat told Insider that there were “many reasons to suspect US involvement” in Friday’s attack, citing President Donald Trump’s opposition to the Iran nuclear deal.
• Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.

The assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist was likely carried out by Israel with the blessing of the Trump administration as part of an effort to derail a major foreign policy objective of President-elect Joe Biden, according to former American diplomats and leading experts.

Biden pledged to bring the United States back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – an Obama-era pact to which President Donald Trump and Israel oppose.

The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, often referred to as the father of Iran’s nuclear program, may have threw a major wrench into Biden’s plans.

Mark Fitzpatrick, associate member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and former US diplomat, told Insider that there were “many reasons to suspect US involvement” in Friday’s attack.

“The assassination is in line with Trump’s efforts to prevent his successor from restoring the JCPOA,” he said, citing recent reports on the president’s demand for military options against Iran and a secret meeting between the leaders of Israel and Saudi Arabia that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was present.

‘It was a provocation’

In May 2018, Trump controversially withdrew the United States from the JCPOA, a deal designed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon in return for easing economic sanctions. The move was criticized by key US allies – the UK, France and Germany – who were also among the countries that negotiated the deal with Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of the main critics of the JCPOA, praised Trump for his decision to break with the deal. Iranian leaders have threatened Israel for years. Like other critics of the pact, Netanyahu said the deal did not go far enough to limit Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, and he also viewed the deal as insufficient in terms of dealing with activities of Tehran, Iran, in the region.

Fakhrizadeh was reportedly behind Iran’s Amad, or “Hope,” program, which has been alleged by the United States and other countries as a covert military operation to research a nuclear weapon. According to the UN nuclear watchdog and US intelligence, the program ended in 2003.

“As important as Fakhrizadeh was to Iran’s underground nuclear weapons development program, killing him will not significantly impede Iran’s potential to produce nuclear weapons, given the work being done on it. day, ”Fitzpatrick said. “The reason for his assassination at that time was less to prevent Iran’s war potential and more to prevent diplomacy. It was a provocation.”

Barbara Slavin, who heads the Initiative for the Future of Iran at the Atlantic Council, echoed this view in a New York Times op-ed.

“Israel and the Trump administration apparently fear that a Biden administration is seeking an early return to the nuclear deal, which could revive Iran’s ailing economy and make it harder to control its influence in the Middle East Slavin wrote. “Killing Mr. Fakhrizadeh makes it even more difficult.”

Likewise, Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser under the Obama administration, said the assassination was a “scandalous move to undermine diplomacy between a new US administration and Iran.”

Iranian Ministry of Defense / Document / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Iranian leaders call for revenge

Prior to Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, the senior Iranian diplomat signaled that Tehran would be open to talks with Biden about returning to the 2015 accord. But Iranian leaders are now pushing against such negotiations and vowing revenge for Fakhrizadeh’s murder , while accusing Israel of his death.

Israel has not officially addressed Fakhrizadeh’s assassination, and the Israeli Embassy in Washington did not comment when contacted by Insider on Friday. But Randa Slim, director of the Conflict Resolution and Dialogue II program at the Middle East Institute, told Insider that the assassination “fits with the long-standing Israeli policy of targeting nuclear scientists. Iranians ”.

A senior American official told the Washington Post that the United States was not involved in the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, but added that there was “absolutely no information indicating that he was someone from other than the Israelis. ” The White House did not comment when contacted by Insider on Friday.

Iran has blamed Israel for a number of assassinations of scientists in recent years, and the Israelis were believed to have coordinated an act of sabotage on Iran’s main nuclear facility in July.

Trump withdrew from Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and tensions have been high since

Although the United States and Iran have been adversaries for decades, tensions reached historic highs during the Trump era. The dynamic between Washington and Tehran has grown increasingly hostile after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed economic sanctions against Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign.

The Trump administration aimed to cripple the Iranian economy and push it to negotiate a tougher version of the 2015 nuclear deal. But in many ways, the “maximum pressure” campaign has only increased the provocative behavior by Iran, leading to a series of skirmishes in the Persian Gulf region in 2019.

Trump ordered a drone strike in January that killed senior Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, raising fears of yet another war in the Middle East. Iran retaliated with a missile attack that left dozens of US service members seriously injured, but both sides ultimately backed out of a larger conflict. But Soleimani’s strike essentially led Iran to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal entirely.

In light of this story, some members of Congress have expressed concerns about the motives for the attack as well as its consequences.

“If the main purpose of the assassination of Mr. Fakhrizadeh was to make it more difficult to restart the Iran nuclear deal, this assassination does not make America, Israel or the world safer,” said Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who sits on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted Friday.

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who was Biden’s main opponent in the 2020 Democratic primary, in a tweet said Fakhrizadeh’s assassination was “clearly intended to undermine US-Iranian diplomacy” as the Biden administration prepared to take over.

“Diplomacy, not murder, is the best way forward,” Sanders added, decrying Fakhrizadeh’s murder as “reckless, provocative and illegal”.

The ball is now in Iran’s court, but it faces a tough decision

If Iran retaliates in a major way to the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, it could jeopardize the economic aid it desperately wants.

Karim Sadjadpour, senior researcher at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, summed it up on Twitter Sunday: “Iran’s dilemma: To restore its economy, Iran needs a full or partial return to the nuclear deal . To restore deterrence / pride he will want to avenge Fakhrizadeh’s death. To do the latter without sabotaging the former is the most difficult. This is one of the reasons why Fakhrizadeh was killed. “

Iran will want to avoid targeting US assets in the final days of the Trump administration, Slim said, adding that the central objective of “the Iranian reaction will primarily be to establish some form of deterrence against future similar Israeli operations. “.

Meanwhile, Germany, which has fought to save the JCPOA, urged all parties to show restraint in the coming days.

“A few weeks before the new American administration takes office, it is important to preserve the possibilities of talks with Iran so that the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program can be resolved through negotiations,” said a spokesperson. word of the German Foreign Ministry in a press release.