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Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to wrest control of the House from Republicans. And they need a net gain of two seats to take a majority in the Senate, although the path to reach that number is difficult.
Trump received good news on Friday, with the announcement that the economy grew by 4.1% in the Trump will surely make this growth part of his mid-term speech for the voters.
But despite a strong economy, the GOP's woes are evident in Trump's low approval rating and the Democrats' advantage in the Generic Congress. ballot. They are even more acute with the Democratic candidates who surpbad the Republicans in the vast majority of competitive races.
But the biggest problem for the GOP – which has always occurred in special elections last year – is that Democratic voters are much more enthusiastic, and therefore more likely to vote in November.
Republicans Separate: Some put forward Trump's call to extinguish their base, while others look for ways to stand out from an unpopular and moderate president. and independent voters and triggered a fierce reaction on the left.
Trump urged Republicans to focus on basic issues, such as immigration, which the President hammered Democrats for much of the year, accusing them of wanting to open borders and encourage gang violence. Democrats focus on the attack on the Republican health care bill and attempt to abolish Obamacare, two unpopular positions among moderate voters
Here are the five key themes to watch out for Over the next 100 days:
Democratic Performance in Special Elections
Democrats are pulled up.
A recent study by Pew Research found that turnout – especially on the Democrats' side – has increased dramatically in the primaries. According to Pew, the total number of votes cast in the Democratic primaries is up 84% from this point in 2014.
Yes, in part because there were more primaries contested, which increases the participation rate. But this excitement has also spread to a series of special elections. Democrat Conor Lamb won earlier this year in the suburbs of Pittsburgh in a Trump neighborhood won 20 points.
Democrat Hiral Tipirneni came to a few blue turning points a reliable red district in the suburbs of Phoenix, Arizona.
The result, coupled with the victory of Lamb and other strong democratic special election performance, Republicans worried.
"This was not supposed to be so close," said a Republican top when the results arrived. "We can not really blame anything."
Democrats also won at the local level, using special elections to overturn 43 seats in various state legislatures since Trump entered the House White
.The next test will come in the suburb of Columbus, where Democrat Danny O 'Connor is looking for a lamb-like show next month on Republican Troy Balderson to return the red district reliable.
The Year of the Woman
[19659002] Wome n are the most dominant force in democratic politics – the one that crosses the age, ethnic and ideological lines.
The fury of the women's march in the aftermath of Trump's inauguration led to a record number of female candidates, and in the competitive primaries women won.
Amongst the stunners: Progressive Kara Eastman beat the # 39; former r representing Brad Ashford in a primary house in Nebraska; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez overthrew Democrat House No.4, Representative Joe Crowley, in New York; and Amy McGrath, fighter pilot who beat Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, a Democratic rookie, in a Kentucky primary house
Many of the winners were supported by EMILY's List, which trains and finances Democratic candidates.
But the trend goes much further than that of voters
Women prefer Democratic candidates to the House with a margin of 25 points – helping Democrats to have 12 points in the vote, where the polls are They asked if they preferred a Democratic or Republican congressional representative to represent them, a Quinnipiac University poll found last week.
Change, the most radical in the suburbs, could be insurmountable for Republicans in some districts, just as the Rise of Rural Voters helped catapult Trump to the White House two years ago.
Trump's tariffs breed republican fears
This raises another problem for Republicans: ro Trump's plan to impose tariffs on countries that he says have been dealing with the United States unfairly, has led China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico to increase their fears of trade war and, in some cases, to impose retaliatory tariffs. . These movements have shaken farms in Trump, spreading fears that markets previously considered critical to soybean producers, hog producers and apple growers – to name but a few – are on the verge of to dry up. to quell worries, arguing that short-term pain is worth the long-term gain.
But Republicans charged with holding the House in 2018 are increasingly worried that trade fears may dampen good economic news.
The Republican Party still dominates rural America, and there is little on the Democratic horizon to break the grip, but the fear among Republican members is that voters who were once animated to stay with the President will stay home in November.
Eying a shot at Trump, candidate for the Democratic presidential election of candidates
Ask any Democrat considering a race at Trump in 2020 on their prospects and they will say that they are focused on the mid-term.
And to a certain extent, is true. The roughly two dozen Democrats suspected of considering a presidential race have been covering the country with confessions, fundraisers and events, hoping their work will impress Democratic activists and lawmakers' favors. They help to elect.
Warren, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden, just to name three, are tweaking their message before a possible race, using the mid-term events to test their vision of the party that they hope to lead. I'm not talking about Clinton voters or Trump voters, I'm not talking about white workers, black workers and Latino workers, I mean workers and I'm talking about voters, "said Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat Ohio
Sanders, for example, used his star power to support liberal candidates, some of whom are not supported by the Democratic establishment, while California Senator Kamala Harris Is focused on Color Democrats, and Biden has used his claim to rally Democratic heavyweights to claim more Trump voters.
to be a mbadive upswing, "said Warren earlier this year. "And while we prefer to talk about good ideas, we can not climb this hill by ignoring the millions of Americans who are angry and scared by the damage that this President and this Republican Party have done to our democracy."
There are also post-2020 factors in the November mid-term: 36 governor's offices are on the ballot this year, 26 of which are for states with Republican governors, and the Democrats hope to win several of these. seats, which in many states would give them the power to veto congressional cards.It is a technical concern, but with ramifications for congressional control for the next decade.
Unresolved Senate Map
The greatest uncertainty at the mid-point is over the Senate landscape – where many of the most competitive states are largely rural and voted for Trump in 2016.
There are at least nine main battlegrounds – with six pickup opportunities for Republicans and three for Democrats.
The most vulnerable Democrats seem to be Sens. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Bill Nelson in Florida. Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia also have tough races in their hands.
One thing that most of these states have in common: they are rural, which means that the consequences of Trump's trade wars the farmers, who are largely pro-Trump, the first.
Another heavyweight factor in Senate races is the battle over the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh at the Supreme Court. Republicans see a legal battle as a way to energize an extinct base – but with the timing of an uncertain vote, it's unclear how much an electoral problem will be powerful.
Democrats, meanwhile, focus on the Republican ouster Senator Dean Heller in Nevada – the only competitive Senate seat in a Hillary Clinton state won in 2016 – and win open seat races in Arizona and Tennessee, where the moderate message of former Gov. Phil Bredesen has so far appealed to Republicans and Independents
One to watch: Texas, where Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces a fund-raising juggernaut in Rep. Beto O 'Rourke. The polls showed Cruz with a consistent lead, but O 'Rourke raised more than $ 10 million largely thanks to online small dollar donors in 2018 in the second quarter and will be able to afford that which is sure to be an unpleasant campaign.
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