It's the European Union – and in Liverpool, everything is about to change

Five months from today the United Kingdom will leave the European Union – and people in Liverpool are very worried.

The city voted strongly to Remain during the 2016 referendum and has relied heavily on strong links with Europe – not to mention significant funding and support that has helped its rebirth and growth into a truly international destination.

So it is understandable that there is a lot of room for improvement in the market, but there is no need for a negotiated deal on the table and the prospect of crashing out of the European Union.

There is talk of lorry ferries being brought to the bottom of the world.

Dr. Stuart Wilks-Heeg is the Head of Politics at the University of Liverpool, who, like many people in the city, is worried about what lies ahead and has outlined the various scenarios that could play out after March 29.

'The potential negative consequences of' no deal 'are absolutely enormous'

Dr. Wilks-Heeg says he is 'very nervous' about the prospect of Brexit at present.

He said: "No member state has not left the EU before, so we have no real precedents to judge what the impacts of leaving, positive or negative, might be.

"It is the 'no deal' scenario that is especially worrying.

"It's a thing to say, as the Prime Minister has repeatedly, that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.

"But in practical terms, the potential negative consequences of 'no deal' are absolutely enormous.

"There is more to this than just the terms on which we trade with the EU.

"Among the host of other things, it is also about the introduction of customs checks at our ports, the prospect of the return of a hardship between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and the provisions for the UK to use European air space.

"All these issues, and more, are set out in the government's 100+ technical notes preparing for a 'no deal' Brexit."

What would a No Deal mean for the lives of people in Liverpool?

With no deal in place, five months to go and some seem insurmountable challenges – such as an agreement over the Irish border – people in the country are starting to come back the European Union on March 29 – but what does it look like in the city?

Dr. Wilks-Heeg says the effects are hard to predict in detail, but adds: "But what can we say about the possibility of disruption to 'just in time' supply chains, supermarket shelves and workers in the region 's car plants might be waiting for them.

"Merseyside companies that will export to the United States will find that they have a great deal of new paperwork and new software systems, owing to customs regulations.

"Merseyside residents traveling to the United States.

"They will need an International Driving Permit if they take their mobile phone roaming charges in the EU will be back for UK residents.

"There are many more consequences at this stage," he said.

'I'm concerned about how Brexit will affect my quality of life'

One such EU national living in Liverpool is Sara Garstecka. A Polish PHD student at the University of Liverpool, she has called this city for the past 11 years – but now worries about her future.

She said, "I'm really here, and I'm so sorry.

"I work in academia and live in a city where so many projects are sponsored by the EU.

"I'm concerned about how Brexit will affect my quality of life: from fewer research funds, fewer jobs prospects, growing costs of food, fewer investment opportunities, raising poverty and so on."

But one area where Sara feels reasonably hopeful about applying for permanent residence.

Her employer, the University of Liverpool was selected for a pilot scheme which is testing the system for applying for permanent residents post Brexit.

She said that she had a great deal of experience with home office staff, and that she would be pleasantly surprised with the system and outcome.

She explained: "It turns out that the new system is really easy and straightforward to use some of the answers.

"I hope this will not change when the system opens to everyone in March 2019. I do not think it will affect my legal status in any way. t be affected. "

But there are plenty of other aspects of Brexit that worry Sara – and she can look to her country for a potential glimpse of some ways things could play out.

She said: "My home country (Poland) has its own problems with the populist, the democratic and extremely conservative ruling party which is slowly eroding freedom of the media and independence of courts.

"I think some people like the idea of ​​Brexit because it chimes with the (misguided) proud, nationalist chord.

"Most people do see how much of the UK has benefited from the UK and is actually aware of the UK's benefits from Europe (in the form of the agricultural sector, peacekeeping on the Irish border, support to the poorer regions and cheap labor). so they are baffled why people voted for Brexit.

In terms of other general fears, she adds: "Raising prices of food and other products after import / export tariffs change, xenophobia, lack of funds for research, increase in poverty and crime levels are probably the top ones for me."

Will Brexit halt Liverpool's growth and prosperity?

If you walk around the Liverpool City Center, it is unlikely to be long before you come across a plaque.

Many in the city believe it was the European Union who came to save Liverpool from the prospect of 'managed decline' under Margaret Thatcher's Tory government in the 1980s and there are fears what Brexit could mean for the city's continued growth and prosperity when this vital source of funding and support cut off.

Dr. Wilks-Heeg said: "The EU Objective 1 funds were available to Merseyside for over a decade from the early 1990s on a mbadive difference and enabled the city-region to finally turn the corner after the devastating impact of economic decline in the 1970s and 1980s.

"Objective 1 status has been reduced, but they have been reduced, but they still provide valuable support for regeneration and economic development initiatives locally.

Watch: Thousands march through Liverpool in protest against Brexit

"Various promises have been made that the UK government will make up for such funding when it disappears, but it is also true that the public will be reimbursed the dividend of the EU. reality, has been promised for many other things also. "

Dr. Wilks-Heeg adds that since the European Capital of Culture success of 2008, Liverpool has 'smartly styled itself as a European city and has become a major European tourist destination.'

He said: "Because of its location and its history, Liverpool is also a city with strong social and economic ties to the Republic of Ireland.The disruptive effect of Brexit could be considerable here, especially in the event of 'no deal'."

"Nothing good comes out of Brexit for Liverpool"

Someone who is more likely to be in the city of Liverpool than in the United States, and is Mayor Joe Anderson.

He fears Brexit will add to a "perfect storm" for a second time in the country that is currently battling unprecedented government spending cuts and the roll-out of the dreaded universal credit benefit system.

He said: "I'm sure that nothing comes out of Brexit for Liverpool.

"The sheer uncertainty it has generated, not to mention the total hash ministers made of the exit negotiations, points to this being a very painful experience for the country.

"Of course, the government has never had an independent review of its economic impact badessments, but what has leaked out shows that the farther you are away from London, the harder the hit you will be."

Mayor Anderson added: "Under a 'no deal' scenario, the North West would see its economy shrink by 12 per cent over the next 15 years, costing tens of thousands of jobs.

"My fear is that we face a 'perfect storm', where we have a world of credit and the roll-out of universal credit.

Mayor Anderson added: "The fact that we have reached the European Commission with a good deal of a satisfactory deal.

"It's ridiculous that you've got a cooling-off period when you're going to have a car – but not when we're about to make the biggest decision we've made a country since the Second World War."