Dem Sinema pulls ahead of McSally in Arizona Senate race

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) took the lead in Arizona’s too-close-to-call Senate race on Thursday night, holding a thin lead of 9,610 votes over Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallySchumer: 2020 ‘doesn’t bode well’ for GOP Overnight Defense: What the midterms mean for defense panels | Pompeo cancels North Korea meeting | Trump eyes Kim summit in early 2019 | Pentagon drops name for border mission Handful of races remain undecided a day after midterms MORE (R).

Sinema holds a 0.5-point lead with votes rolling in, predominantly from Maricopa County, according to new numbers from the Arizona secretary of state’s website. Votes were also posted from Pinal and Gila counties as well as Pima County, a Democratic-leaning county that’s home to the city Tucson.

The tally marks a shift from McSally’s initial 1-point lead as of earlier on Thursday, when the GOP congresswoman was up by 17,073 votes.

An Arizona source told The Hill that the latest numbers came from roughly 150,000 votes from Maricopa County, with another 345,000 outstanding votes still left from that county, which includes the capital of Phoenix, as well as Sinema’s own congressional district.

A total of approximately 500,000 votes remain uncounted across the state.

The Maricopa County recorder announced that the next update will be posted on Friday at 5 p.m. local time.

Sinema and McSally are locked in one of the fiercest Senate battles this cycle in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeSchumer: 2020 ‘doesn’t bode well’ for GOP Collins: Mueller ‘must be allowed’ to continue Russia probe Trump seeks to show he remains in charge of Washington MORE (R-Ariz.), an outspoken critic of President TrumpDonald John TrumpDemonstrators gather outside White House to protest Sessions’ ouster Acosta: ‘I didn’t put my hands on’ White House intern White House doubles down on decision to pull press pbad from CNN’s Acosta MORE.

Arizona was one of the few states this cycle where Democrats had an opportunity to flip a seat in their uphill fight for the Senate majority. While it’s traditionally a red state, Trump carried Arizona by less than 5 points in 2016, which is a closer margin than previous GOP presidential nominees. And Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in Arizona since 1988.

Prior to the first batch of outstanding votes being released, Sinema’s campaign released a statement voicing confidence about her prospects when all the remaining ballots are tallied.

“Arizonans must have faith that their votes are counted, and we are working diligently to ensure that count proceeds in a fair, transparent, and timely manner that voters can trust,” Sinema campaign manager Andrew Piatt said, adding that the campaign believes she’ll be elected after the remaining votes are counted.

McSally’s campaign projected similar confidence in a Thursday night statement.

“With half a million ballots left to count we remain confident that as votes continue to come in from counties across the state, Martha McSally will be elected Arizona’s next Senator,” McSally Campaign CEO Jim Bognet said.

Arizona isn’t the only Senate race that’s left to be called. In Florida, Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonElection Countdown: Midterm fallout | What we learned | What to watch next | Trump calls out lawmakers who lost | A look at the undecided races | Vote deepens urban, rural divide | Women help deliver Dems House | McConnell thanks Trump for Senate gains Schumer: 2020 ‘doesn’t bode well’ for GOP Overnight Defense: What the midterms mean for defense panels | Pompeo cancels North Korea meeting | Trump eyes Kim summit in early 2019 | Pentagon drops name for border mission MORE (D-Fla.) and his Republican opponent Rick Scott are also locked in a close race that looks headed to a recount.

And Mississippi’s special Senate election is headed to a Nov. 27 runoff, with neither Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) or former Agriculture Sec. Mike Espy (D) able to clear the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid one. Hyde-Smith is highly favored to win the runoff in the ruby-red state.

Regardless of the outstanding races, Republicans will hang onto their Senate majority after flipping seats in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. But depending on the outcome of those races, Republicans could still be governing with a small majority.

The current Senate breakdown is 51 seats for Republicans, and 46 for Democrats.

—Updated at 8:47 p.m.