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Yesterday NOAA released its latest winter forecast. The forecast does put Michigan in abnormal conditions for both temperature and precipitation. I talked to the NOAA forecasters, and they admit it’s not a real confident forecast.
In a long range forecast like this latest forecast for two to four months from now, the confidence can range from a toss-up to fairly certain. To have a winter forecast with higher confidence, a strong El Nino is needed.
And that’s the reason for a slight direction in the forecast, but not high confidence.
Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, works on the team that produces the winter forecast. Halpert says the coming winter forecast is centered around an El Nino occurring this winter. But Halpert indicates the El Nino is expected to be weak.
El Nino is when a stretch of the Pacific Ocean along the equator becomes warmer than its long-term average. A strong El Nino brings a high chance of a warmer and drier than average winter in Michigan.
The forecast for temperatures in Michigan this winter leans toward a better chance of warmer than normal versus colder than normal. But Halpert wants to emphasize there is still a chance of a colder than normal winter. For southern Lower, the forecast gives a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of warmer than normal temperatures. This also means there is a 33 percent chance of a normal winter and a 27 percent to 33 percent chance of colder than normal temperatures.
So when you see orange and red on the temperature forecast map, don’t get too excited one way or the other. There is just a slightly greater chance of it being a warmer winter than a colder winter.
As we go north into northern Lower and the U.P., the chance of a warmer than normal winter increases. There is a 40 percent to 50 percent chance it will be warmer than average. But remember, this also means still a 17 percent to 27 percent chance of a colder than normal winter.
The precipitation forecast for this winter shows a tendency toward drier than normal conditions over most of the Great Lakes region. Again I want to remind you that a slightly increased chance of drier conditions also means still a 17 percent to 33 percent chance of wetter than average conditions.
One condition Halpert thinks will occur in Michigan this winter is high variability. This means we could go through two to four week stretches of alternating warm and cold, wet and dry.
Halpert also wants to point out even a warmer than normal winter in Michigan will have snow.
I will try to put this in perspective for you. If you are a winter hater, you will probably have one or two significantly long stretches of warmer than average weather. You’ll get a couple of breaks from harsh Michigan winter weather. For winter lovers, you’ll probably have the opposite. You’ll get a couple of few week stretches when Old Man Winter dominates.
In the end, it could be a winter with a little something for everyone.
Watch for a NOAA update on the winter forecast November 15, 2018. The forecast would change if El Nino strength is expected to be stronger or weaker than the current expectation.
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