The Apocalyptic Predictions of Brexit With No Outcome Begin to Look Hollow

No-deal apocalyptic Brexit's predictions start to look hollow

Independent.ie

Paschal Donohoe warned against the dangers of a Brexit without agreement, saying that nearly 40,000 Irish jobs would go. His gloomy warnings are based on various studies conducted since that terrible day in June 2016, when the Brexit referendum was adopted in the United Kingdom.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/apocalyptic-nodeal-brexit-predictions-are-starting-to-look-hollow-37119092.html

https://www.independent.ie President Donohoe warned of the dangers of a hopeless Brexit, claiming that about 40,000 Irish jobs were going to disappear. His gloomy warnings are based on various studies conducted since that terrible day in June 2016, when the Brexit referendum was adopted in the United Kingdom.

But his timing on the appalling prospect of a chaotic British exit from the EU is intriguing. It only occurred 24 hours before the latest economic forecasts that showed that the Irish economy would grow again at the fastest pace of the EU this year.

It also happens while he is trying to reduce budget expectations in October. Donohoe knows that there are already spending commitments exceeding 2.4 billion euros and huge demands for everything from public sector wage increases to tax cuts.

He may have had another problem in mind as well. Brexit

Despite the fact that Theresa May has whitewashed several Brexiters in her firm, there is a good chance she will not be able to enter into a fully compliant collateral agreement with the bullet-proof border .

His white paper on future relations between the EU and the UK is certainly a much more flexible version of Brexit and if it is acceptable to the EU, it could provide a virtually pointless frontier control with the North.

However, the talks on the support measures are ongoing separately but in parallel and his point of view is valid, namely that the agreement described in the White Paper would cancel the need to introduce the par -chocs. [19659005] But problems and uncertainties abound. The EU is likely to cut down much of its plan and force it to make further concessions. The White Paper's proposal for a Free Trade Agreement on goods, not services, would go a long way towards ensuring an open border and protecting Irish exports to Britain, but we will see in Brussels Perhaps Donohoe does he know that there must be some kind of horse trading on the backstop and the government wants to focus on the consequences of the car accident if Ireland was to dig up and prevent an agreement from going forward. At least now, Michel Barnier and his Brussels team have a working document with which they can commit, but there is still a lot of detail to be worked out.

Boris Johnson may be "forgotten but not gone" in all of this while he and his crew are plotting to shake the sweet Brexit, perhaps in a parliamentary vote at the end of the negotiations.

Surely, sinking the agreement in a House of Commons vote would not plunge so much the UK into a no-deal exit, as ensuring the status quo stayed longer.

In total confusion, keep calm and do nothing. Eventually, in a few years, the British might give up the idea of ​​leaving first.

All things considered, the White Paper proposals are good for Ireland on trade in goods. If the services were not subject to a free trade agreement, it would be bad for the city of London and other sectors such as insurance, communications, legal services, services -advice and computer services.

The United Kingdom exported services worth £ 279 billion during the 12-month period ending in May 2018. About 44% of these services were exported to the United Kingdom. ; EU. A hard Brexit for services, which the White Paper proposes, would allow the UK to negotiate its own services agreements with third countries.

His commitment to abide by EU regulations and standards on goods would prevent it with third countries on products

So much for the Brexit campaign rhetoric of England making many new products and selling them to the world through new trade agreements.

Food and agricultural products would be part of the Free Trade Agreement and British farmers would be safe from a flood on the UK market of cheaper and substandard food products. No chlorinated chicken either.

But farmers in Britain and the North will still depend on the British government to replace their European payments with London money. Can they trust this government or future British governments to maintain this level of subsidy for years to come?

Brexit has a lot more twists but for Ireland, at least, it seems to be heading in a "less worst" direction.

Investors Have More Striking Problems for Ryanair

Sincerely Engaging in Negotiations with Lead Trade Union Representatives at the Talks Negotiations Has Not Helped Ryanair management. By all means, the company should negotiate hard if it believes that it has taken all reasonable steps to respond to union demands, but arguing over a site has shown that management may be at risk. comfortable with the worst.

This comes down to the question asked when Ryanair agreed to recognize the unions first. How much would union recognition cost the airline? In December, badysts estimated that the cost per Ryanair pbadenger was about 27 euros off fuel, 50 points lower than that of EasyJet. A shortage of pilots meant that pay rates would rise anyway. The airline was already expecting an increase in fuel prices and estimates provided an additional cost of about 300 million euros for fuel and an additional 100 million euros for staff. this year. At the end of last week, the opening of industrial action led to the cancellation of only 30 flights. The union ballot provides for a series of one – day and two – day shutdowns, so that other strikes are likely unless the problem is resolved.

And there could be others elsewhere. VC, the union of German pilots, votes its members for union action. The British Airline Pilots' Association has submitted its own payment claims that could result in a dispute. Cabin crew unions in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Belgium are planning industrial actions one day later this month.

Perhaps the market thinks that this will lead to disbursements of more than € 100 million. Ryanair shares have fallen 76c since the beginning of July, dropping the market capitalization by 800 million euros.

And this is perhaps only the first wave.

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