Britain is finally ready to put its cards on the table and Theresa May's plan for a softer exit from the EU has already prompted two Brexiters to leave her cabinet.
But the biggest test is coming to Brussels, where the British vision of future relations, which will be exposed in a white paper this week, will come up against the political constraints imposed by European leaders.
Here the Financial Times examines the five possible outcomes of the most important economic negotiations in which Great Britain has participated since the dissolution of its empire.
1. "No deal" chaotic
The most likely question to trigger "no deal" is Northern Ireland. Brussels and London disagree on how to avoid a hard border. The safety net favored by the United Kingdom would maintain the country as a whole in customs arrangements with the EU. But Brussels insists that regulatory and customs rules should apply to the province alone. If both sides put their heels on the backstop, all Brexit agreement will fall.
Timing
If the stalemate has not been resolved by Christmas, this will become the most likely scenario, setting up Britain to escape from the United States. EU on the 29th of March next year.
Goods
In this scenario, there is chaos at all borders of Britain, with the gradual establishment of a hard border in Ireland. Tariffs, customs controls and regulatory controls are applied at all UK borders and there are problems at the Channel Tunnel and Dover. The EU controls and decides on the rigor of border controls on the basis of the emergency plans it is developing.
Services
Trucks and flights may be immobilized. The EU, which seeks to allow a grace period for flight rights to continue, can decide how much to tighten the screw.
Political Risks
Complaints are bitter on all sides. In Britain, which is the most affected, a blame game between the remains and the Brexiters. Insults are traded across the English Channel and the Irish Sea. The EU accuses Britain of not having paid off its debts, as relations are getting closer to total breakdown.
Business Feedback
Consternation, and there are efforts to establish an emergency plan – which is insufficient to deal with the chaotic consequences of the collapse.
2. Brexit difficult after the transition
A second scenario is that negotiations on a final commercial arrangement fail to reach a friction-free agreement on goods because the EU27 countries refuse to accept the selection British single market.
In the end, only a Canadian-type agreement with certain exclusions for transportation services was agreed. Britain refuses to enter a customs union with the EU. Because the United Kingdom had signed a divorce agreement with Ireland, the failure of trade negotiations led to a customs border in the Irish Sea at the end of the transition period in January 2021. Britain had joined the safety net would never be used.
Timing
The United Kingdom signs a withdrawal agreement at the end of 2018 and a free trade agreement – but nothing more – in 2020.
Goods
Customs declarations Regulatory controls for goods crossing the Irish Sea are introduced as early as 2021, but there is a soft border in Ireland. There is a hard border in the Dover Strait, but no tariffs
Services
A transportation service agreement is signed, but there are restrictions on the rest of the trade in services, including including financial services. Political Risks
The recriminations turn in the UK that the government signed the backstop without guarantees on a future agreement.
May's North-Irish allies in the Democratic Unionist party desert the government, saying the new customs procedures are unacceptable.
The British government accuses the EU of underhanded tactics, saying that Brussels never wanted to agree.
Companies' reaction
Consternation, because the agreement provides far from the desired friction-free border between the EU and the UK for goods or for services.
A third possible result is that Britain remains, indeed, in a customs union with the EU, largely to avoid a hard border in Ireland. British customs agreements are being adopted in parallel with Northern Ireland's support package, with London claiming that it will eventually free itself and set its own tariffs once the technology makes a hybrid system possible.
The United Kingdom, with the exception of Northern Ireland, leaves the single market. The agreement minimizes regulatory controls on the Irish Sea, but the EU imposes much tighter controls in Calais and in other ports.
Timing
The UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with an orderly withdrawal agreement. The United Kingdom signs a free trade agreement and a customs union with the EU in 2020.
Commodities
Industrial goods circulate fairly well, although more checks to comply with the rules single market today. Agricultural products are experiencing significant delays at the border.
Services
A transportation service agreement is signed, but the rest of the trade in services, including financial services, is subject to restrictions.
19659006] The government reluctantly sells the idea as a minimal border in the UK, but this does not respect the approval of the DUP.
Conservative Brexiters are furious that Britain has lost its ability to sign trade property agreements because it remains in the customs union. Relations between the United Kingdom and the United States. EU27 are difficult, but both parties agree to continue talking about border frictions
Business reaction
The manufacturing sector is disappointed by the new frictions but can work with them. Financial services and other service sectors are much less satisfied.
4. Access to the single market for goods
Another possibility is that Europe agrees to sign more or less the control plan of Theresa May.
Negotiations on a final agreement guarantee a regulatory alignment of goods indirectly supervised by the European Court The EU accepts that this agreement does not fundamentally undermine the single market, since Britain allows the generalized movement of citizens to EU – statement by Mrs May & Checkers hinted at "mobility" – and made budgetary contributions
Britain adopts a customs regime which, in practice, means that it shares a common external tariff with the EU.
Timing
The UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with an orderly withdrawal agreement, entering the transition period. It signs a complete set of economic treaties with the EU in 2020.
Goods
There is a frictionless trade of industrial, food and agricultural goods.
Services
Worst access than today, but Britain's access to the EU's single market is significantly larger than for any other non-member country.
Political Risks
Ms. May celebrates an agreement under her terms but is accused by the Brexiters of supervising Brexit by name only. The Irish riddle is resolved. The United Kingdom is concerned that too many concessions have been granted to the United Kingdom
Business reaction
Companies are largely satisfied with the results, but the City of London ignored.
In this scenario, the EU27 rejects Ms May's request to join the single market for products only, believing that this would undermine the four indivisible freedoms of goods, services, goods and services. work and capital.
Great Britain signs a withdrawal agreement with EU support for Northern Ireland, with provisions for negotiating an EEE-type relationship after Brexit.
Britain makes other concessions during the transition period. The economic arguments for continued integration are too important once the UK has left the EU.
Timing
The United Kingdom leaves the EU in March 2019 with an orderly withdrawal agreement
Britain concludes the EEA-type agreement and stays in the # Customs union at the end of the transitional period in January 2021
Goods
There is a frictionless trade in industrial, food and agricultural goods.
Services
Trade in services continues as it is today.
Political Risks
This result is considered a defeat for Britain and Ms. May, who capitulated to the intransigence of the EU. All his "red lines" are broken.
Business Reaction
It is hardly a pleasure to see that the business environment does not change.
